New England Patriots vs. Denver Broncos: Betting Odds, Analysis, NFL Pick

According to Andrew Mason of the team's official website, the Denver Broncos (8-2) will stick with Brock Osweiler as their starting quarterback over the injured Peyton Manning as they host the unbeaten New England Patriots (10-0) in the Week 12 Sunday-night matchup.

Osweiler won his first career start on the road against the Chicago Bears last week, helping the Broncos earn a 17-15 victory even though they fell short of covering the spread as 2.5-point favorites.

Point Spread: The Patriots opened as 5.5-point favorites. The total was 47.5 early in the week.

Odds Shark Computer Pick: Broncos 25.6, Patriots 20.4

Why the Patriots Can Cover the Spread

The Patriots are coming off a 20-13 home win over the Buffalo Bills as seven-point chalk on Monday night and have played very well on the road this year, going 4-0 straight up and 2-2 against the spread.

Brady obviously has a lot more experience than Osweiler and gives his team a clear edge offensively. The only question is whether he will be just as motivated for this matchup as he would be if he were facing Manning.

Regardless, Brady knows what is at stake here, as New England can put itself into prime positioning for home-field advantage with a victory against Denver. The Broncos already have two losses, and the Cincinnati Bengals do too after falling on the road to the Arizona Cardinals in last week’s Sunday-night game.

Why the Broncos Can Cover the Spread

Denver has proved this season that it does not need much from the offense to win games. Osweiler’s debut for the team was solid yet unspectacular, with the most important statistic being the zero interceptions he threw against the Bears.

The more experience he gets, the better he will perform, and it was good that he got his first start on the road before returning home to face the Patriots.

The Broncos have also proved to have a true home-field edge versus New England, winning four of the past five meetings at Mile High both SU and ATS. The last game between the teams there took place in the 2014 AFC Championship Game when Denver won 26-16 as a 4.5-point home favorite.

Keep in mind that the Pats will still be limited offensively without wide receiver Julian Edelman and running back Dion Lewis, taking away Brady’s two top safety valves outside of tight end Rob Gronkowski.

Smart Pick

This was always viewed as the toughest game on New England’s schedule and remains that way despite Manning’s absence. The Patriots will be playing on a short week and do not know Osweiler nearly as well as Manning.

Defensively, the Broncos will also be able to pressure Brady into some uncharacteristic mistakes. As good as New England has been this season, this is not a 16-0 team. Take Denver to win in an upset.

Betting Trends

• The Patriots are 5-0 SU and ATS in their last five games in Week 12.
• The Patriots are 11-2 SU and 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games against the AFC West division.
• The Broncos are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games after an ATS loss.

All point spread and lines data courtesy of Odds Shark, all quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates and get the free odds tracker app.