Why Alabama Should Now Be Favorite to Win National Championship

TUSCALOOSA, Ala. — Back at the beginning of training camp, University of Alabama senior linebacker Reggie Ragland gave Cyrus Jones a goal to shoot for on punt returns this season: eight touchdowns.

Jones pretty much said “OK,” only now Ragland is looking for him to make good on it. He notched two on Saturday against Charleston Southern, making him the first player to do so since Alabama started keeping track in 1944. His season total of three leads the nation.

“He’s starting to get into a groove,” Ragland said.

The same could be said of the No. 2-ranked Crimson Tide (10-1) as a whole. The offense has the leading candidate for the Heisman Trophy, the defense might be the best in college football and now even special teams are finding the end zone as well.

In short, Alabama is peaking at the right time and doesn’t feel like it’s played its best game yet heading into the annual regular-season finale at Auburn (Saturday, 2:30 p.m. CBS).

“You’re only as good as your last play,” head coach Nick Saban said. “I like the progress of the team, but we’ve got to continue to be able to execute and play with consistency.”

Team	Odds
Alabama	+150
Clemson	+400
Oklahoma	+750
Notre Dame	+900
Baylor	+1200
Michigan State	+1200
Florida	+1400
Ohio State	+1600
Iowa	+2000
Michigan	+2000

Nevertheless, even though this team hasn’t won anything yet—not even a division title—it’s pretty obvious that Alabama is once again considered the team to beat.

Undefeated Clemson might top the polls, but Alabama receiving first-place votes is a strong indication that it would be favored in a neutral setting.

Ohio State might have been the exception to that considering last year’s game at the Sugar Bowl, but after losing to its first ranked opponent (Michigan State), the Buckeyes are now a long shot to return to the playoffs.

“It would have been cool to play them again, but I don’t think we really care who we would play, we just want to make sure that we’re in the conversation at the end of the year in the top four,” Jones said about the Ohio State loss. “If we’re in a position to win, we’re fine no matter who we would play.”

Overall, Alabama’s played the toughest schedule, has the most overall talent, the most depth, the most proven coaching staff and experience. It’s won at least 10 games in eight straight seasons, the third-longest streak in the Football Bowl Subdivision since 1937, and only three of its games since 2008 haven’t had national championship implications (all during the 2010 season). 

It rebounded by destroying Michigan State in the Capital One Bowl 49-7 and used that to launch its successful national championship runs in 2011 and 2012.

Consequently, except for the junior college and fifth-year transfers, the current seniors have at least one of those rings.

Now they just need to lead a title run themselves.

Butch Dill/Associated Press/Associated Press/Associated Press

"It's very different,” Ragland said about the team’s focus. “I was just telling them yesterday we're [hitting] our strength and stride. It's one of the best feelings I've had in a long time about a team, since my freshman year.

“These guys, everybody's just communicating. Every time you walk into the locker room, you just feel at home and at peace. It ain't no animosity, anything like that. I just feel great about this team, man. If everybody keeps doing their job, we'll be where we want to be at the end of the year."

The players say that’s different from the past two years, when Alabama was in the same situation and fell short.

“This team is way more focused than we were in 2013 when we were heading down [to Auburn], and even last year at this point,” Jones said. “I think it's a much more tight-knit locker room. Everybody has the same goals. No big egos on the team.

“It's just less distractions. You can just sense it, and you can see it by people's actions. Less selfishness on the team. Everybody is focused on the team goals instead of their own personal aspirations and things they want to accomplish. Whether it's winning awards or what their stats are or with the older players, what their draft stock is and different things like that. Everybody is just focused on this team and just winning games and reaching our ultimate goal.”

Category	SEC	NCAA
First-Down D	2	5
Third-Down D	3	9
Rushing D	1	2
Scoring D	T1	T3
Pass-Efficiency D	1	6
Sacks	1	T3
Total D	1	3
Turnovers Gained	2	T17

It’s not too difficult to see where it stems from. Ragland and senior center Ryan Kelly are likely to be voted team captains, and junior running back Derrick Henry went and hugged all the seniors after their final home game on Saturday.

“Those guys do a lot for this program,” Henry said. “They put in a lot of time and hours in. I just wanted to say, 'thank you' and I appreciate them.”

“You’ve got guys like Derrick and Reggie who you know are first-round, second-round picks,” senior safety Geno Matias-Smith said. “When it means so much to them to go out each week and focus on the season, not after the season, and pick the guys up...”

This isn’t to say that Auburn can’t beat Alabama, because we’ve all seen too many Iron Bowls to know otherwise. The same goes for Florida and whatever team(s) it might face in the playoffs should it continue to win.

But all indicators are pointing toward a strong finish for the Crimson Tide.

The swarming defense is being compared to the 2011 unit that was just the second in history to finish No. 1 nationally in all four key defensive categories (Oklahoma 1986). Since 2009, Alabama has given up 135 touchdowns over 91 games, 39 fewer than the next best team (Florida with 174).

It’s scored eight non-offensive touchdowns, more than any of the three national title teams under Saban, and there are still signs of improvement.

For example, after having nine penalties against LSU and averaging 7.0 through its first nine games, Alabama had four at Mississippi State and just two against Charleston Southern.

“We were on the wrong track for a while,” Kelly said. “We were kind of increasing penalties week in, week out. Coach Saban came into the offensive room one day and was like, ‘This is a big problem.’ He kept adding up all the yards that we keep losing just based on shooting ourselves in the foot, penalties like offsides, wrong formations and it’s stuff we do in practice. So it’s been one of our biggest points trying to clean up [in] practice.

“A lot of guys who did have penalties aren’t getting them anymore.”

The offense is also committing fewer turnovers. Freshman wide receiver Calvin Ridley is second in receptions in SEC games. Ragland was named a finalist for the Butkus Award on Monday.

As for Jones, five more punt returns for a touchdown may be asking a lot, but with the way he’s playing, he’s not going to rule anything out with potentially four games remaining.

“I’m excited about the opportunity that we have,” Saban said.

Quotes were obtained firsthand unless otherwise noted.

Christopher Walsh is a lead SEC college football writer. Follow Christopher on Twitter @WritingWalsh.