Heisman Watch 2015: Latest Race Odds and Predictions

Heisman hopefuls can't win the trophy in Week 12, but they sure can lose it. 

Just ask Ezekiel Elliot. The Ohio State running back entered the week with an opportunity to challenge odds-on favorite Derrick Henry for the title. Instead, whether he'll be invited to the ceremony might wind up being an interesting storyline. 

That's the nature of this season's Heisman race. Between injuries, upsets and flat out baffling drops in production (looking at you, Leonard Fournette), there's really no telling week-to-week who will stay in this battle of attrition. 

Week 12 brought a little clarity to the race as a few candidates failed to make the statement they needed to catch the runaway train that is Henry. Here's a look at the candidates along with the latest odds from Odds Shark. 

Player	Odds	Opponent	Result	Week 12 Stats
Derrick Henry	2-3	Charleston Southern	W 56-6	9 car, 68 yards, 2 TDs
Ezekiel Elliott	9-2	Michigan State	L 14-17	12 car, 33 yards, 1 TD
Leonard Fournette	9-2	Ole Miss	L 17-38	25 car, 108 yards
Deshaun Watson	7-1	Wake Forest	W 33-13	24/35, 343 yards, 4 Total TDs, 1 INT, 44 rushing yards
Corey Coleman	25-1	Oklahoma State	W 45-35	5 rec, 77 yards
Christian McCaffrey	50-1	Cal	W 35-22	29 car, 192 yards, 49 rec yards, 148 KR yards, 2 TDs
Baker Mayfield	NA	TCU	W 30-29	9/20, 127 yards, 2 TDs

Deshaun Watson Will Be Derrick Henry's Biggest Threat

It's no secret that the Heisman has become a quarterback trophy. Signal-callers have won five consecutive Heismans and eight of the last 10, including the one that Reggie Bush later vacated. 

It only makes sense that a quarterback would eventually emerge in a race that has been dominated by the likes of Fournette, Henry and Elliott. With TCU's Trevone Boykin going down to injury, that quarterback is Deshaun Watson. 

Watson might not be part of a high-flying offense like the ones found in the Big 12, but he is the best player on the best team in the country right now. That's enough to be considered. Especially when considering how the best player on the No. 1-ranked team in the country has finished in recent seasons:

Season	Player	Team	Heisman Finish
2014	Amari Cooper	Alabama	2
2013	Jameis Winston	Florida State	1
2012	Manti Te'o	Notre Dame	2
2011	Tyrann Mathieu	LSU	5
2010	Cam Newton	Auburn	1

As long as Clemson remains undefeated and hangs onto that No. 1 ranking Watson will remain a serious threat. It isn't like he doesn't have impressive numbers, either. 

He's had nearly 400 total yards in each of his last four games while completing 70 percent of his passes this season. That's deadly efficiency that's leading an unbeaten team right now. 

Ezekiel Elliott Will Finish Outside Top 3

Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports

Heading into Week 12 it would have been preposterous to say that Elliott would not be a top three finisher in the Heisman race. He was easily the best offensive player on the No. 3 team in the country. He put up numbers consistently (at least 100 yards in every game.) 

With an opportunity to put up big numbers against a ranked opponent in Michigan State, the stage was set for him to make up some ground against Alabama's Henry. 

Instead, the game turned out to be a nightmare for Elliott. At least, that's how he described it. 

“What happened today was just kind of a bad, bad dream,” Elliott said according to Tim May of the Columbus Dispatch. “The offense had a bad day. I’m disappointed—I’m disappointed in the play-calling. I’m disappointed in the situations we were put in. I wish it all played out differently.”

Elliot's frustrations with the coaching staff stemmed from the fact that he only got 12 touches. However, the 33 yards he got on those 12 carries is at least partially on him. 

The loss not only essentially kills Ohio State's playoff aspirations, but also put an end to Elliott as a Heisman contender. 

Christian McCaffrey Will Be a Finalist

Stanford's do-it-all running back might be a late-bloomer in the Heisman race, but he's doing everything he can to get to New York. In a week where no one really put up huge numbers he carved California up for his best performance on the season. 

The only problem is that it didn't actually happen until Sunday on the East Coast. As Steve Palazzolo of Pro Football Focus wondered, did anyone in that time zone actually see it?

The truth is most East Coast voters were likely sound asleep with visions of Watson and Henry dancing in their heads. 

However, Heisman voting can be a regional affair. McCaffrey has established himself as the top candidate out west which means he's going to have a seat waiting for him at the ceremony. 

Derrick Henry Will Be Your 2015 Heisman

Butch Dill/Associated Press

Week 12 wasn't necessarily the week where Henry did something to win the Heisman trophy. It might just be the week that he won by process of elimination. 

The big Alabama back had 68 yards and two touchdowns on just nine carries against Charleston Southern (don't you dare question how dangerous the Buccaneers are). But the best news for him is that he wasn't really in the spotlight. 

Essentially, Henry did what he had to do to make sure he remains the front-runner. As Cecil Hurt of the Tuscaloosa News noted, he showed on the first drive he could essentially choose how many yards he wanted to rush for on Saturday in the first quarter:

Then he went on to casually tie an Alabama record for touchdowns in a season—with two more games to go. 

For all of Alabama's dominance, the school isn't known for producing Heisman winners. Mark Ingram became the first Crimson Tide player to win the award in 2009. 

Looks like they need to start clearing space in the trophy case in Tuscaloosa for Henry.