NFL Picks and Predictions Week 11: The Ultimate Bettor's Guide
Last weekend in the NFL was insane. It's hard to remember a time when so many favorites lost on the same Sunday. Vegas cleaned up, and we went 6-7 overall, managing to head into Sunday Night Football with a winning 6-5 record and exiting Monday Night Football with a losing week in our lap.
Luckily, we were able to limit the loss on a relative scale of the general population. Books really mopped the floor with squares in Week 10. It was a blessing that our "Locks of the Week" went 4-1. For the year, we're now hovering just above the key number of 52.5 percent for all of our picks against the spread, and we're now an outstanding 57.8 percent in our weekly "Locks."
This week, we'll try to improve both of those numbers, with the goals being 55 percent and 60 percent in those respective categories. This is the final week that features teams on bye weeks in the NFL, which means the real divisional and seeding races are starting to heat up. This is the best time of the year to be a football fan.
All picks ATS: 70-61-5 (.533)
Locks of the Week ATS: 29-21-1 (.578)
Thursday Night Football: Tennessee @ Jacksonville
1 of 15
Jacksonville 19, Tennessee 13
Thursday Night Football games are not appealing to me from an overall standpoint, but picking the Jacksonville Jaguars here would have been the move. Look at Tennessee's record in recent years: That wasn't all due to Ken Whisenhunt. The Titans are just not a good team overall.
Blake Bortles is looking better for the Jacksonville Jaguars, but his consistency is what is going to be the real measure of his skill in 2016. Overall, it was a great win for the Jacksonville community, even if the Jaguars did look like human trophies on national television.
Next week, both teams face West Coast teams on their home turf, with the Titans battling the Oakland Raiders, in a showdown of two of best the young, talented quarterbacks the league has to offer, and the Jaguars battling the San Diego Chargers, two teams that are trending in different directions.
Cover: Jaguars
Denver @ Chicago
2 of 15
Opening line: Denver @ Chicago (+3)
Current line: Denver @ Chicago (PK)
Life came at Peyton Manning rapidly Sunday as he went from breaking a record to getting replaced by Brock Osweiler in a matter of hours. Manning had the worst game of his career just two weeks after looking ready for a Super Bowl run against the Green Bay Packers.
It's fairly clear that he can still compete at a high level but not if he's going to play every game. Prior to facing the Packers, the Broncos were on a bye week. Manning is basically the Dwyane Wade of the NFL.
The Broncos defense is still elite, and it will be able to suit up Aqib Talib, a back-to-back Pro Bowl cornerback who missed last game against the Kansas City Chiefs after poking an opponent's eye in Denver's match against the Indianapolis Colts.
Jay Cutler and the Bears are much better than people gave them credit for to start the year, and outside of the games that Jimmy Clausen played in, Chicago has looked like a respectable team. From a power-ranking standpoint, you need to make a decision: Are the Broncos better or worse without Manning?
It's not often that a future Hall of Fame passer goes down and this question comes up, but the only game I can recall in which a quarterback looked worse than Manning last week in the 2015 season was Colin Kaepernick's performance against Arizona. Kaepernick has since been benched for Blaine Gabbert, whose first game was a giant home upset of the Atlanta Falcons.
This line essentially opened at an equivalent of the Broncos being favored by nine points at home and has dropped three points. In nine games, including seven wins, the Broncos have only won by more than six points three times and have only won by more than nine points once. If this number gets to Chicago as a one-point underdog again, I'd be all over it, but a coin toss isn't a bad bet, either.
Don't doubt the John Fox-Adam Gase-Jay Cutler revenge possibilities.
The pick: Chicago (+3)
Dallas @ Miami
3 of 15
Opening line: Dallas @ Miami (-1)
Current line: Dallas @ Miami (PK)
The 2015 Dallas Cowboys are a study on how important the quarterback position is in the sport. All season, the Cowboys defense and offensive line have dominated, but without functioning skill players, it hasn't mattered. Dallas is 2-7, with a 2-0 record under Tony Romo and a 0-7 record under Brandon Weeden, who is no longer on the team, and Matt Cassel, who was traded for in-season.
Both of these teams had odd weekends. Somehow, the Miami Dolphins ended up winning a game in which they were down 13 in the first quarter to come back and beat the Philadelphia Eagles. Let me tell you, the Dolphins looked inept from the jump. On the other sideline will be the Cowboys, who forced Jameis Winston to fumble on his way into the end zone, just to have the turnover called back on an interference call, which led to a naked run to give Winston and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers a 10-6 win.
Here's the thing: Under Romo, the Cowboys will score more than six points. In two of the past three weeks, Dallas could have won a game by just scoring 14 points, which would have given the team a manageable 4-5 record. I'm just not buying the Dolphins hype, and the Cowboys are the better team with an actual quarterback. They should be favorites, even on the road.
The pick: Dallas (+1)
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Oakland @ Detroit
4 of 15
Opening line: Oakland @ Detroit (PK)
Current line: Oakland @ Detroit (+1)
The Detroit Lions nearly give up a win, are still the worst team in the NFL and have only won two games in nine attempts in 2015, but they opened up with even odds at home? I'm not really worried about the Oakland Raiders on the road, even without Aldon Smith, who has now been punished for his offseason run-in with the law.
The Raiders have a better quarterback. They have a better offensive line. They have a better backfield. They might even have the best receiver in the game. Defensively, the Lions are vanilla, too.
The line between Green Bay and Detroit was in the double digits last week. If the Lions didn't pull away with that game, I don't see Oakland as anything less than a two-point favorite in this situation. It's a team from the west going east in a morning game, but the Raiders are also the clear favorite in this situation.
Why in the world would you trust the Lions, a team that has essentially fired everyone but the head coach, has benched its franchise quarterback and had its face of the franchise drop a crucial onside kick recovery after the defense allowed a touchdown in crunch time? Side note: If you didn't watch the game, Green Bay's Davante Adams, who had one of the worst production-to-target games I've ever witnessed in the NFL, dropped the two-point conversion that would have tied the game up with seconds on the clock.
The pick: Oakland (PK)
Indianapolis @ Atlanta
5 of 15
Opening line: Indianapolis @ Atlanta (-4)
Current line: Indianapolis @ Atlanta (-6)
Two important questions need to be asked about this game: First, do we think Andrew Luck is better than Matt Hasselbeck? Second, are the Atlanta Falcons frauds?
Let's start with the quarterback controversy. I don't think anyone on Earth would trade the future of Hasselbeck's career for what remains in Luck's, but it's clear that something has been bothering the former first overall pick all season. Be it injury or a chemistry issue, he just hasn't looked like the passer who sent Indianapolis to the playoffs in his first three seasons as a professional.
Hasselbeck has posted a 95 passer rating this season, including two wins in his two starts, while Luck is down to a 74.9 rating and a 2-5 record, with both wins coming before he missed playing time the next week. Bill Simmons, now of HBO, talks about his "Ewing theory" in which people mistakenly downgrade a team for losing a player who has never won anything significant. I wouldn't consider AFC South titles between 2012 to 2014 significant, and I don't think Luck has played well this year.
This might be a subtle positive for the Colts.
As for the Falcons, who haven't posted a win since Week 7, I'm also not thrilled. From a power-ranking standpoint, single-score games should really be treated as games that could have gone either way. After all, seven points is essentially equivalent to one play in this sport, and seven points can swing many games. Atlanta has only won two games by more than a touchdown: against the Brandon Weeden-led Dallas Cowboys and the Brian Hoyer-led Houston Texans. Not exactly the cream of the crop.
Since those back-to-back games, the Falcons have scored 25, 21, 10, 20 and 16 points. Atlanta's average of 18.4 points per game during that five-game stretch would land it as second-worst in the NFL offensively. The team's record was inflated by close wins, and regression to the mean is going to bring the Falcons back to earth down the stretch.
Both teams are coming off a bye week, but Atlanta lost to the San Francisco 49ers and Blaine Gabbert heading into their break. The Falcons haven't won by more than six points in weeks, and I see nothing that would influence me in a way to assume they would change their path this late in the season.
The pick: Indianapolis (+6)
St. Louis @ Baltimore
6 of 15
Opening line: St. Louis @ Baltimore (PK)
Current line: St. Louis @ Baltimore (-2.5)
The "we thought they might have had a shot at the playoffs" bowl is held this week in Baltimore. The cost of admission is one wide receiver, who will immediately line up for both teams as an all-time offensive player.
There's some news in this game. First, the St. Louis Rams have benched Nick Foles for Case Keenum. Second, the Rams have put two of their offensive linemen on injured reserve after they were hurt on a Nick Foles interception. Third, the Baltimore Ravens brutally cut their returner on Twitter. Both of these teams are clearly going in the right direction!
Side note: Elvis Dumervil, who didn't fumble the ball but did commit a facemask penalty that then gave the Jacksonville Jaguars a shot at game-winning field goal, is still on the Ravens roster. In America, keeping your job is all about your relative short-term failure and your long-term talent.
Unfortunately, both of these teams have failed often in 2015 and don't really look like they have great long-term outlooks. Baltimore is favored by fewer than three points, while Keenum makes his first start in 2015 on the road. That's all I needed to hear.
The Ravens have fight in them, despite their record, so this isn't a team to consistently bet against from here on out. The Rams are 4-5 in between being wild-card contenders and giving up on the season. Arizona Cardinals head coach Bruce Arians wasn't wrong when he said last season that St. Louis is always 8-8.
The pick: Baltimore (PK)
Washington @ Carolina
7 of 15
Opening line: Washington @ Carolina (-7.5)
Current line: Washington @ Carolina (-7)
This game is a simple pick to me: Carolina is going to keep beating weak teams. The new market exploitation might be for teams to stop building around the passing game offensively and instead load up in every other unit. Sure, the Panthers have an MVP candidate at quarterback, but if you look at their receivers and offensive line assets, you'd never pin them down as a franchise that emphasizes that aspect of football.
In a league that is getting smaller and faster, throwing out nickelbacks, dime backs and third safeties in place of linebackers and defensive linemen, Carolina has simply decided it will get into a bar fight in a phone booth on a weekly basis. It won't allow you to get into a shootout, as the Panthers are able to control the ball consistently with their run game and shut down offenses with their top-five defense, with stars in every unit. Even if they do need to throw, there isn't a single pass that Cam Newton can't make.
In three of the last four games the Panthers have played in, they've won by seven or more points. The one outlier was when they played the Indianapolis Colts, a game in which they were pulling away and somehow allowed Andrew Luck to throw his way into overtime before the Colts eventually fell.
Kirk Cousins against Carolina's defense. Newton and the power run game against Washington's defense. The Panthers are team that is consistently producing, is accountable, has great coaching on both sides of the ball and is the clear favorite from a talent standpoint. This line would make the Panthers a slight road favorite in Washington, and I would trust them enough to pull out the road win, too.
The pick: Carolina (-7)
New York Jets @ Houston
8 of 15
T.J. Yates had to come in for the Houston Texans in their improbable Monday Night Football win against the undefeated Cincinnati Bengals. Because of questions surrounding the quarterback position in this game, very few books have lines up on this game. In my Sunday morning-lines update, I will select a side in this matchup, after we get a real look at how Vegas views these teams.
Are there odds one someone puking on the field in before the game?
Tampa Bay @ Philadelphia
9 of 15
Opening line: Tampa Bay @ Philadelphia (-7)
Current line: Tampa Bay @ Philadelphia (-5.5)
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have won some close games this season in which Jameis Winston has looked like a developing star, but when Lovie Smith's team loses, it's not pretty. The Bucs have done so five times this year, by scores of 42-14, 19-9, 37-23, 31-30 and 32-18. Other than their one-point loss to Kirk Cousins' Washington Redskins, they've lost by double digits four times this year. In a half a season, that's a horrible rate.
In those five losses, they average a loss of 13.4 points. This line is a single score. Do we trust Winston on the road against a great Philadelphia Eagles defense? No. Remember, Dallas' defense last week basically would have shut down the Buccaneers for 60 minutes, had it not been called for defensive holding on a Winston fumble on the goal line. The Eagles are even better on that side of the ball.
On offense, Philadelphia, even under Mark Sanchez, is better than the Matt Cassel-led Cowboys. Tampa is a bad football team playing above its record, which is great for the young team's confidence, but the win percentages of these two teams are much closer than their actual talent. At 5.5 points, the Buccaneers would be home favorites. Even Cassel's Cowboys were road favorites against this team.
The pick: Philadelphia (-5.5)
Green Bay @ Minnesota
10 of 15
Opening line: Green Bay @ Minnesota (PK)
Current line: Green Bay @ Minnesota (-1)
This is going to sound like a weird take, but Aaron Rodgers might be the next quarterback we take off the pedestal this season. We've already done it to Andrew Luck and Russell Wilson this year as those two passers can no longer carry their offenses.
Rodgers has always had a decent receiving unit, going back to the days of Greg Jennings, Jermichael Finley and Donald Driver. One of Rodgers' biggest positives has been that he makes plays late in downs. If the pocket breaks down, he just rolls out and finds a man in a live-action scramble drill.
This is the issue: He doesn't trust his offensive line to hold up, and he no longer has chemistry with his receivers to throw them open when their pure speed and route running can't get them free. He's starting to see ghosts, and he's playing worse than he has in years.
Do we think his statue falls this year as the top quarterback in the NFL? Early on in the season he was looking like what we had expected, but since blowing out the Kansas City Chiefs on Monday Night Football, he's just been off.
The Minnesota Vikings have a strong ground game and defense. That's the recipe to beating the Packers in the Mike McCarthy era. A shootout isn't going to work; ask San Diego and Kansas City. The grinding the Carolina Panthers and Denver Broncos put on Green Bay really laid out the blueprint on how to beat the Packers. The Detroit Lions beat them at home while only managing to score 18 points. That's unheard of.
Unless the Packers can score 10 points in the first quarter and force the Vikings to play from behind, it's Minnesota's ballgame.
The pick: Minnesota (PK)
Kansas City @ San Diego
11 of 15
Opening line: Kansas City @ San Diego (+3)
Current line: Kansas City @ San Diego (+3.5)
The Kansas City Chiefs are three-point road favorites. I'm not a big San Diego Chargers defender, but this line has made me one. Would you trust the Chiefs to cover a nine-point line at home to a team that is coming off a bye week? I wouldn't.
Despite the fact that San Diego's injury column is longer than most children's Christmas wish lists, I'm still feeling the Chargers here. When the public zigs, you make money more times than not by zagging. Just because Kansas City beat a horrible Denver offense doesn't mean it's back as a contender in the AFC, though the Chiefs are in the wild-card hunt.
Philip Rivers can throw his way into any game, and the Chiefs still have to suit up Alex Smith this week. Kansas City is better, but the Chargers can keep it close with anyone when they're on.
The pick: San Diego (+3.5)
San Francisco @ Seattle
12 of 15
Opening line: San Francisco @ Seattle (-10)
Current line: San Francisco @ Seattle (-13.5)
Man, Vegas is tempting everyone here. Under very few circumstances do you want to take Blaine Gabbert on the road, even after a big home upset and a bye week. One of those circumstances would be when the Seattle Seahawks are 13.5-point favorites.
The Seahawks have won two games by two or more touchdowns this season: against the Chicago Bears when they faced Jimmy Clausen and against the San Francisco 49ers when they faced Colin Kaepernick on a short week on Thursday Night Football.
There are just too many odd things about this Seattle team this year. The Seahawks are now 4-5 after what essentially was their Super Bowl last week against Arizona. They already look like they're splitting apart on the outside. Players are leaving. New players are added who don't really know their roles on the team. Russell Wilson has been cursed. Marshawn Lynch's agent is taking shots on Twitter.
I'm expecting chaos in this game, and chaos doesn't assume a near two-touchdown win.
The pick: San Francisco (+13.5)
Sunday Night Football: Cincinnati @ Arizona
13 of 15
Opening line: Cincinnati @ Arizona (-2.5)
Current line: Cincinnati @ Arizona (-5)
It was improbable that the Cincinnati Bengals would lose to T.J. Yates' Houston Texans, but is it more improbable that they will lose twice in a row? The Arizona Cardinals were tested last week against the Seattle Seahawks and came out victorious. Now, history is against teams that played the Seahawks one week prior, but history can't be good for teams that Yates has beaten, either.
This line opened with the Cardinals being favored by 2.5 points, making the Bengals a slight favorite on a neutral field. Now, Arizona is a five-point favorite. That's a 2.5-point swing based off one Monday Night Football game. When the public zigs, you zag.
The pick: Cincinnati (+5)
Monday Night Football: Buffalo @ New England
14 of 15
Opening line: Buffalo @ New England (-7.5)
Current line: Buffalo @ New England (-7.5)
Everyone is starting to learn that the lines on New England games are swinging a little high, just based off the Patriots' record and their public reception. No one wants to bet against them. This is how we make our money.
The Buffalo Bills are coming off a long week after beating the New York Jets on Thursday Night Football in a Rex Ryan revenge special. It's hard to beat an in-division team twice in the NFL, but the Patriots are hoping to do so, while the Bills have extra rest to back them.
This line would suggest the Patriots would still be road favorites in Buffalo, which I'm fine with, but I'm not taking anything over a touchdown margin of victory here. The Bills look competent, and competent teams aren't two-score underdogs, even on the road.
It's also fairly obvious that NFL referees are going to let "boys be boys" when regarding the subject of Rob Gronkowski. They are going to let the defense get physical with him, much like how they treat the Green Bay receiving unit and Seattle Seahawks defensive back unit. Rich Hill of Pats Pulpit tweeted a great example of the Giants' hack-a-Gronk strategy from last Sunday.
Rex loves the limelight, and the limelight loves Rex.
The pick: Buffalo (+7.5)
Locks of the Week
15 of 15
- Denver @ Chicago (+3)
- San Francisco (+13.5) @ Seattle
- Cincinnati (+5) @ Arizona
- Dallas (+1) @ Miami
- Green Bay @ Minnesota (PK)
All lines courtesy of OddsShark.com.
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.jpg?w=480 "Colts Jaguars Football")
