Cincinnati Bengals vs. Arizona Cardinals Betting Odds, Analysis, NFL Pick

In what could be an early Super Bowl 50 preview, the Cincinnati Bengals (8-1) visit the Arizona Cardinals (7-2) in the Week 11 Sunday night matchup. The Cardinals and the Bengals both played in prime time last week, with the former upsetting the Seattle Seahawks 39-32 as three-point underdogs last Sunday night and the latter suffering their first loss to the Houston Texans 10-6 as 10-point home favorites Monday.

Point spread: The Cardinals opened as 2.5-point favorites; the total was 48 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark (line updates and matchup report).

NFL pick, via Odds Shark computer: 27.0-20.0 Cardinals

Why the Bengals can cover the spread

Cincinnati’s offense struggled immensely versus the Texans but can play a lot better than that. The team averaged nearly 29 points in the first eight games and was 7-0-1 against the spread during that stretch, including a perfect 4-0 on the road.

The Bengals had some good drives offensively early Monday that resulted in a pair of field goals, and their defense played extremely well outside of allowing the game’s lone touchdown on a fantastic catch by wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins.

But Cincinnati tight end Tyler Eifert had three drops and wide receiver A.J. Green had a key fumble late in the game that prevented the team from scoring more points. Eifert and Green will be able to bounce back like their teammates, remembering their 8-0 start.

Why the Cardinals can cover the spread

Like Cincinnati, Arizona has a strong offense and defense, and the team showcased both in Sunday’s win at Seattle. The Cardinals jumped out to an early 19-0 lead, only to give it up and regain it in the fourth quarter en route to the key divisional victory. Quarterback Carson Palmer turned in an outstanding performance against the Seahawks and should be even more motivated to face his former team in the Bengals.

Palmer has thrown for more than 350 yards in four of the last six games, enjoying one of his best seasons in his 13th year. He is on pace to set career highs in passing yardage and touchdowns, rebounding nicely after missing the final 10 games last year due to a torn ACL. After he suffered a torn ACL in Cincinnati, the team held on to him for two more years before he forced his way out and landed with the Oakland Raiders.

Smart pick

Palmer’s motivation here will be the difference, as he continues his campaign for NFL MVP honors. The Bengals are coming off a short week after playing Monday night, and this is another step up in competition from the Texans, who have shown the rest of the league a blueprint to beat them. Back the Cardinals to win for the fourth time in as many home meetings with Cincinnati both straight up and ATS.

Betting trends

• The Bengals are 0-3 SU and ATS in their last three games on the road against the Cardinals.
• The Cardinals are 10-4 SU and ATS in their last 14 games after a win.
• The Bengals are 7-2 SU and ATS in their last nine games as underdogs.

All point spread and lines data courtesy of Odds Shark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates and get the free odds tracker app.