Indianapolis Colts vs. Atlanta Falcons Betting Odds, Analysis, NFL Pick

The Indianapolis Colts (4-5) and the Atlanta Falcons (6-3) both return from byes in Week 11 hoping to make a run at the playoffs when they square off at the Georgia Dome this Sunday. The Colts lead the AFC South despite a losing record thanks to a 27-24 win over the Denver Broncos as three-point home underdogs in Week 9, while the Falcons look to end a two-game losing streak and trail the unbeaten Carolina Panthers by three games in the NFC South.

Point spread: The Falcons opened as four-point favorites; the total was 46 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark (line updates and matchup report).

NFL pick, via Odds Shark computer: 30.3-16.9 Falcons

Why the Colts can cover the spread

Despite playing without starting quarterback Andrew Luck due to a lacerated kidney, Indianapolis has a backup who is more than capable in veteran Matt Hasselbeck. In a 27-20 road win against the Houston Texans in Week 5, Hasselbeck threw for 213 yards and two touchdowns in place of Luck, who sat out with a shoulder injury. Hasselbeck also started the previous week against the Jacksonville Jaguars, which resulted in a 16-13 overtime victory at home.

Hopefully, Indianapolis was able to regroup during the bye, as the team had been playing better, covering the spread in four of five games even though the team lost three of them. The Colts still have confidence as winners of the AFC South the two previous years, and they will be visiting an Atlanta team that overachieved early in the season with a 5-0 start before losing three of four, also failing to cover five in a row heading into this game.

Why the Falcons can cover the spread

The Falcons have not been playing well lately, but their bye could not have come at a better time. They were able to rest and get healthy, giving running back Devonta Freeman and wide receiver Julio Jones the opportunity to recharge their batteries after being among the best at their respective positions through the first nine games.

Atlanta’s last two setbacks were decided by a combined four points, including a 23-20 home loss in overtime to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Week 8. The team could have easily won one or both and has plenty of time to make a run at the NFC South title with four divisional games in the final five weeks, two of which come against Carolina.

Smart pick

The Falcons have won six straight games following a bye, and Luck being out will help them make it seven in a row. Hasselbeck is a solid signal-caller, but the two games he won filling in for Luck were against teams with losing records. Atlanta needs to get back to scoring early and often to force the Colts to try to keep up. The Falcons will do just that and beat Indy by double digits to snap their ATS skid.

Betting trends

• The Colts are 4-1 ATS in their last five games against the Falcons.
• The Falcons are 2-8 SU in their last 10 games after consecutive ATS losses.
• The Colts are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games as road underdogs in November.

All point spread and lines data courtesy of Odds Shark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates and get the free odds tracker app.