Ambushed By FSU, Is BYU's Season Over?

Against huge odds, BYU beat No. 3 Oklahoma to start the season and instantly became everybody's Cinderella. Heading into Saturday's game against Florida State, media pundits and BYU fans alike were gushing about BYU's chances to run the table and maybe, just maybe, play for a national championship.

And then Florida State showed up in Provo.

Saturday's beatdown at the hands of the Seminoles was epic; not just for the pugnacious manner in which the Cougars suffered defeat but because of the way it deflated the cause of all non-BCS teams looking for a legitimate BCS buster this season. BYU dropped to No. 19 in the polls.

Boise St. and TCU both remain unbeaten, but the #8 Broncos' schedule is so weak that there remains talk of a one-loss MWC team earning the token at-large bid for non-AQ schools. No. 14 TCU still has to navigate difficult games against Clemson, Utah, and BYU.

Where does all of this leave BYU? With national title talk extinguished and a shot at a BCS game being a long shot at best, is BYU's season over? Not at all.

Cougar fans who are balancing precariously on the edges of cliffs and bridges after Saturday's loss must remember that a 2-1 record after three games is the best that anyone in Cougar Nation could have expected coming into the season.

The strength of the Oklahoma win kept BYU in the top 20 despite the fact that the Seminoles violated everything that is virtuous about the Cougars. At No. 19, the 2-1 Cougars have nine more games to prove that their performance on Saturday was an aberration.

If BYU goes 9-0 the rest of the way, toppling a likely top 12 or better TCU team and a Utah team that will also likely be ranked in the top 25, then the Cougars will finish the regular season 11-1 and should find themselves ranked somewhere in the No. 8 to No. 12 range in the polls. 

Will that be enough to earn BYU a post-season bid that is better than their perennial trip to the Las Vegas Bowl? Who knows. Assuming that BYU takes care of business from here on out, a loss by Boise St. would certainly vault a one-loss BYU team back to the top of the heap among non-AQ schools.

But Boise St.'s remaining schedule would give a toothache to a cupcake, so counting on the Broncos to lose isn't BYU's easiest path. It will likely take convincing victories against TCU and Utah, along with blowouts against the rest of its MWC opponents, for BYU to overtake Boise St. when the BCS bowl selections are announced.

Even if BYU fails to crack the BCS brotherhood and ends up in the Las Vegas Bowl for another year, Cougar Nation cannot be displeased with a 11-1 season (or 12-1, depending on the outcome of the bowl game).

BYU's best chance at earning perennial respect in the polls is to follow the model Boise St. has created: dominate games in conference play and beat quality BCS opponents when the opportunity arises.

The loss to FSU is certainly a setback but not the death knell for the 2009 season—even though Cougar fans are still hearing chants of "Fear the Spear" in their nightmares.