Who's More Likely to Leave Alabama First: Lane Kiffin or Kirby Smart?

Coaching silly season is about to crank up, and the eyes of athletic directors around the country should be fixated on Tuscaloosa, Alabama.

The Alabama Crimson Tide staff is loaded with future head coaches, including offensive line coach Mario Cristobal (who has been linked to his alma mater, Miami, according to CBS Miami), defensive coordinator Kirby Smart and offensive coordinator Lane Kiffin.

The last two assistants are interesting for two very different reasons.

Smart has been on head coach Nick Saban's staff since Saban got the job in 2007, and he has served as Alabama's defensive coordinator since 2008. During that time, the Crimson Tide has never finished a season outside of the top 12 nationally in total defense.

Sure, Saban has his fingerprints on that side of the ball, but as Bleacher Report's Chris Walsh noted, the defense is all Smart.

"I think [they] see it as easier than it really is," Alabama Crimson Tide Sports Network and Reece's Senior Bowl executive director Phil Savage told Walsh. "Alabama, though, subtly and within that building, I think there’s a high regard and appreciation for what Kirby does in terms of putting it all together."

Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images

Smart has established himself as one of the best coordinators in the country but has done nothing to suggest whether he's capable of running a program.

For Kiffin, it's about rehabilitating his image. 

The one-year Tennessee experiment and the next four-and-a-half years at USC tarnished his reputation due to his attitude, NCAA issues and the inability to lead a contending program despite loads of talent on the roster. He's still getting paid by USC, according to Michael Casagrande of AL.com, and is on the second year of a three-year deal in Tuscaloosa.

Who will get a head-coaching job first: Smart or Kiffin?

It's definitely Smart.

Stacy Revere/Getty Images

That's not to say that Kiffin won't get looks. He will. There were reports last week that he had interviewed for the vacancy at Maryland, which were later refuted (via: SECCountry.com). Even though he might not have technically interviewed, Kiffin's marketability at a school like Maryland that is fueled by Under Armour in a Big Ten that also features Urban Meyer, Jim Harbaugh and James Franklin seems like the perfect storm of college football fun.

Because Kiffin has another year on his deal and has an image problem rather than an experience problem, he's more likely to stick around and wait for the perfect fit and perfect team to take the next step.

Smart probably has to take the next step after this season, and the way the silly season is shaping up, he's going to find a nice landing spot.

Whether that's at a high-profile place like Virginia Tech, South Carolina or Missouri; or at a smaller school that is either already open or opens up after dominoes fall—like perhaps Houston or Memphis—there's bound to be something that tickles Smart's fancy.

Matthew Emmons-USA TODAY Sports

Plus, a short stint at a smaller school will answer the one remaining question on Smart's resume: Can he be a head coach?

Hugh Freeze and Gus Malzahn answered this question in back-to-back seasons at Arkansas State in 2011 and 2012, before moving on to Ole Miss and Auburn, respectively. They both led their programs to various degrees of success early, which always helps stabilize programs.

Conversely, Will Muschamp jumped straight from being a hot-shot coordinator to a big head-coaching job at Florida, and was dismissed after just four years. Vanderbilt's Derek Mason looked completely lost in his first season at Vanderbilt after serving as Stanford's defensive coordinator for three years, but now he has a defense that's top 20 nationally in total defense and yards per play, and top five nationally in red-zone and third-down defense.

Even the best assistant coaches need to find their voice as head coaches. In a "win-now" business, that's more difficult to accomplish at a major program that expects immediate results.

Smart would benefit by finding a nice spot to slide that final piece into his coaching puzzle and then assess the coaching situation over the next few years at some of the SEC's big potential landing spots.

He essentially has two really attractive options outside of Tuscaloosa headed his way this offseason; take a leap to the big job if one of the big programs with a vacancy wants to take a chance on him, or jump at one of the smaller schools that either is open now or opens up later due to the coaching carousel.

Kiffin likely will only be attracted by the former, because the idea of him coaching a smaller school like Louisiana-Monroe—which just opened up—is about as likely as the NFL being able to accurately determine what constitutes a completed catch.

Smart seems like the most obvious choice to move on between the two, with Kiffin hanging around and being a little more selective with his next step.

Quotes were obtained firsthand unless otherwise noted. Statistics are courtesy of cfbstats.com.

Barrett Sallee is the lead SEC college football writer and national college football video analyst for Bleacher Report, as well as a host on Bleacher Report Radio on SiriusXM 83. Follow Barrett on Twitter @BarrettSallee.