Michigan State vs. Ohio State: Complete Game Preview
Welcome to the official start of Ohio State's 2015 football season.
The third-ranked Buckeyes (10-0) have breezed through their schedule despite looking less than stellar against overmatched teams, but the slate will be much tougher as they move toward another berth in the College Football Playoff.
Standing in their way this week is No. 9 Michigan State (9-1), who's looking for revenge from last year's 49-37 loss to Ohio State. Quarterback Connor Cook was knocked out of last week's 24-7 win over Maryland with a shoulder injury, but the senior insists he'll be ready to go against the Buckeyes, according to Kyle Austin of MLive.com.
ESPN's College GameDay will be in town, and the selection committee will be watching closely this Saturday. Can Michigan State get even, or will Ohio State's playoff run surge on?
Viewing Information
Date: Saturday, November 21
Time: 3:30 p.m. ET
Place: Ohio Stadium, Columbus, Ohio
TV: ABC
Spread: Ohio State (-13), via Odds Shark
Ohio State Keys to Victory
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Get J.T. Barrett Going
When Ohio State traveled to Michigan State as an underdog last year, it came in aggressive and threw eight straight passes to open the game. It set the tone for J.T. Barrett, who carved the Spartans up for 300 passing yards and 86 rushing yards to complement five total touchdowns.
If the Buckeyes expect to win this game—and on a bigger scale, make a playoff run—they'll need to get Barrett back into 2014 form.
It looked like he was on his way three weeks ago against Rutgers, when he completed 14 of 18 passes for 223 yards and three touchdowns (against no interceptions). But after serving a one-game suspension against Minnesota, Barrett looked ordinary against the Illini, throwing for only 150 yards and a touchdown with an interception.
The Spartans haven't been nearly as good defensively as in years past, especially against the pass, as they rank 86th in the country, allowing an average of 243 yards per game.
Get After the Quarterback
Ohio State should expect to see Connor Cook at quarterback, but regardless of who lines up behind center, the Buckeyes will need to be a constant presence in Michigan State's backfield Saturday night.
The Spartans have relied heavily on their passing attack this year, which ranks 37th nationally with 253.9 yards per game. They're also excellent at protecting their quarterback, as they've given up an average of 1.3 sacks per game, a mark that's tied for 23rd.
But Joey Bosa, Tyquan Lewis, Adolphus Washington and Sam Hubbard form the 11th-best pass-rushing unit in the country, averaging three sacks per game. They'll challenge a solid Spartans offensive line on Saturday, and they'll have the benefit of home-field advantage to help their cause.
Michigan State Keys to Victory
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Run the Ball
With the injury to Connor Cook and the strength of Ohio State's pass defense, which ranks eighth nationally, Michigan State will have to run the ball effectively on Saturday night.
That task looked easier earlier in the season, when the Buckeyes were routinely gashed by opposing ball-carriers such as Indiana quarterback Zander Diamont, Maryland quarterback Perry Hills and Penn State running back Saquon Barkley.
But the Buckeyes have stiffened during the last three games, allowing an average of 52.3 rushing yards per game to Rutgers, Minnesota and Illinois. Michigan State has struggled to open lanes for its running backs this year, ranking 92nd in the country in rush offense, so it'll need to be much better against Ohio State.
Load the Box
When the Spartans are on defense, they have to force J.T. Barrett to beat them with his arm.
The Buckeyes have struggled to throw the ball this season, averaging 208.5 passing yards per game. Urban Meyer has bounced back and forth between quarterbacks because of that lack of production, but Barrett consistently moves the ball more efficiently.
If Michigan State can stuff the run, though, Ohio State will have a tough time moving the ball.
The Spartans should leave their corners on an island and load the box against the Buckeyes. Their secondary hasn't been a strength this year, but that's a gamble they should take in an effort to shut down Ohio State's biggest strength.
Ohio State Players to Watch
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Michael Thomas
There's no Devin Smith on the Buckeyes this year to beat the Spartans deep, but Michael Thomas knows how to gash this secondary.
Last year in East Lansing, Smith made the biggest play of the game when he caught a post route on the perimeter, broke a tackle and raced past the Spartans for a 79-yard touchdown.
Thomas has been the Buckeyes' best receiver this season, leading the team in receptions (45), receiving yards (651) and receiving touchdowns (eight). If he can turn in another big game, the Buckeyes will have a great chance.
Will Braxton Miller throw a pass down the field this season?
If it doesn't happen against Michigan State, it probably won't happen at all.
The Buckeyes have hinted toward that possibility a number of times over the last three weeks. Leading up to Ohio State's matchup with Illinois, a number of players said that Miller was doing things in practice that were much bigger than the impact he's been making on Saturdays.
He was coming along as a receiver, averaging 50 receiving yards in the two games leading up to Illinois, but he bottomed out last week, turning in a season-low minus-four all-purpose yards.
The Buckeyes have used the wide receiver position to trigger some trickery recently. The most notable instance came in the Sugar Bowl against Alabama, when Evan Spencer hit Thomas on a 19-yard touchdown strike off a reverse.
Will the Buckeyes dial up a pass down the field for Miller on Saturday?
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Michigan State Players to Watch
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Aaron Burbridge
Michigan State had a tall task coming into the season when it had to replace its two leading pass-catchers—Tony Lippett and Keith Mumphery—from a season ago.
Aaron Burbridge helped the Spartans get over that hump relatively easily.
Burbridge has been sensational for Michigan State this year, leading the team with 65 receptions for 1,021 yards and six touchdowns. He's eclipsed 100 receiving yards in seven of the Spartans' seven games, pacing an aerial attack that has thrived under Connor Cook's direction this year.
Whether it's Cook or Tyler O'Connor lining up at quarterback, the Spartans will need Burbridge to find some holes in Ohio State's outstanding secondary.
Shilique Calhoun
Ohio State's defensive line has been one of the most dominant units in the country, but during Monday's press conference, Urban Meyer said Michigan State's defensive front is the "best defensive line in college football," according to Dave Briggs of the Toledo Blade.
That group is led by Shilique Calhoun, the game-wrecking senior defensive end. Through 10 games, Calhoun has piled up 8.5 sacks, which is tied for 12th nationally. He'll be working against an offensive line that has struggled to protect the quarterback—especially last week, when Illinois consistently generated pressure in the backfield.
If the Buckeyes can't come up with an answer for Calhoun and an impressive pass rush, it could be a long night for J.T. Barrett and the offense.
What They're Saying
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Ezekiel Elliott talked about the big games coming up for Ohio State, via Patrick Murphy of the Ozone.
“This is why we come to Ohio State,” Elliott said, via Murphy. “This is why you come to places like Ohio State, to come out here and play in big games. It’s just crazy we’ve got these two back-to-back. The first one is kind of a rivalry and the second one is definitely a rivalry.”
Michigan State coach Mark Dantonio talked about the big game coming up, according to Mark Griffith of MLive.com.
"I think everybody understands we're in a playoff-type situation here and that we need to win this football game," Dantonio said on his Sunday teleconference. "There's a great challenge down in Columbus waiting for us, but there's also great opportunity."
Left tackle Taylor Decker talked about the challenge of protecting J.T. Barrett, according to Adam Rittenberg of ESPN.com:
"J.T.’s a shorter quarterback, he needs to slide into windows, and when there’s a lot going on in front of him, he has to move a lot to see those windows. That's just something we’re going to have to deal with. We’re going to have to hold up and keep the width and the depth of the pocket for him to stand in and make throws.
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Prediction
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Ohio State's resume will get a big boost Saturday night.
The Spartans will come in hot and score the game's first 10 points, thanks to two big throws from Connor Cook and an inspired effort from the defense, which will sack J.T. Barrett twice in the first quarter.
Ohio State will find a rhythm on its first drive of the second quarter as Barrett starts to hit some deep passes against Michigan State's aggressive defense. Michael Thomas will get the Buckeyes on the board when he takes a post route 45 yards to the house, and the Buckeyes will roll from there.
Barrett will have his best game of the season, throwing for 275 yards and two touchdowns to complement 60 rushing yards. Ezekiel Elliott will run for 160 yards and two scores, and despite a late rally from the Spartans, the Buckeyes will connect on a late field goal to seal a 10-point win.
Ohio State 34, Michigan State 24
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