Ranking the Most Impressive Starts for NBA's Rookies So Far
With a small, albeit still significant, portion of the 2015-16 NBA season in the books, this year's rookie class has a question it would like to ask.
Are you impressed?
First impressions are difficult to make at the NBA level. Beginners are at an inherent disadvantage because they represent only a small fraction of the entire league. Most of their opponents are more advanced, and many of them are established superstars.
It can be nearly impossible for new kids on the block to distinguish themselves under those circumstances. Those who do are ahead of the curve. Irrespective of the sample size, their ability to stand out while they're still learning, still in the feeling-out stage of their professional career, is impressive.
Now sure seems like a good time to pay homage to these thriving aspirants, doesn't it?
Only those who are healthy and averaging at least 10 minutes per game are eligible to be included. No, an exception will not be made for Frank Kaminsky. Please send all gripes over his lack of playing time to: DidTheHornetsReallyPassUpFourFirstsJustToNeverPlayFrank@yikes.lol.
Rookies will be selected and then subsequently ranked based on their early-season contributions, performances, stat lines, etc. This is not a referendum on their entire future, and some who appear are, at the moment, unsustainably good.
All of them, though, are making an impact—the kind that, sustainable or not, has steered their careers in the right direction.
Honorable Mentions
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These basketball colts are doing pretty well, just not let's-rank-them-individually well.
Stanley Johnson, Detroit Pistons
Stanley Johnson's commitment to defense is forever. He's just struggling mightily on the offensive end on the heels of a misleading preseason. We'll have to see if his 20-point explosion against the Golden State Warriors on Nov. 9 gets him going in the near future.
Nikola Jokic, Denver Nuggets
Dear Head Coach Mike Malone,
Please refer to Nikola Jokic's otherworldly per-36-minutes splits and increase his playing time accordingly.
Signed,
Us
D'Angelo Russell, Los Angeles Lakers
True, D'Angelo Russell hasn't been especially good. He is shooting under 40 percent from the floor and, until recently, has been losing minutes to Lou Williams and Nick Young.
But he exploded for 13 points, six rebounds, three assists, one steal and one block against the Orlando Magic on Nov. 11. Maybe that will warm him up—assuming, of course, Lakers head coach Byron Scott doesn't try to expedite Russell's development by taking it slow or whatever the heck he's doing/saying these days.
Myles Turner, Indiana Pacers
Myles Turner looks lost at times on the offensive end. But he's already a bigger outside threat than Roy Hibbert and David West ever were, and his shot-swallowing game is in veteran form.
Had he not suffered a chip fracture in his left thumb that will keep him sidelined for the next four weeks, per a team announcement, he might have crept into "I get my own slide!" territory.
10. Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, Brooklyn Nets
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2015-16 Per-Game Stats: 17.5 minutes, 3.1 points, 4.6 rebounds, 1.4 assists, 1.3 steals, 0.5 blocks, 45.8 percent shooting, 12.1 player efficiency rating
[Prepares to ask a question to which he already knows the answer.]
Are you watching the Brooklyn Nets? Of course you're not. They're bad. Really bad. They're wholly incapable of defending against three-pointers, and their offense runs with the fluidity of a broken garbage disposal.
If you're going to subject yourself to Nets games, it should be to watch Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, the lone player who might be of any long-term value to Brooklyn.
The 20-year-old project is as raw as can be. That much is clear. He relies almost solely on his physical tools to get him by and has yet to prove he can shoot the rock with any semblance of consistency. Brooklyn doesn't allow him to take threes, and he's converted just one shot outside the paint.
But it's not about offense with Hollis-Jefferson. He's already a defensive stud—the Nets' best and only true perimeter policeman. He leads all rookies in steal percentage and, despite being a small forward, ranks in the top 10 of block rate.
Brooklyn's defense is, not surprisingly, statistically elite with him in the game. Heck, the Nets in general are statistically elite when he plays.
In the time Hollis-Jefferson has spent on the floor thus far, the Nets are outscoring opponents by 10 points per 100 possessions. That would be the third-best net rating in the entire league and is tops among anyone on Brooklyn's roster to log at least 10 total minutes.
To sum up: Head coach Lionel Hollins, a presumed defensive enthusiast, needs to double Hollis-Jefferson's playing time.
9. Willie Cauley-Stein, Sacramento Kings
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2015-16 Per-Game Stats: 21.2 minutes, 6.3 points, 5.8 rebounds, 0.4 assists, 1.1 steals, 1.0 blocks, 70.6 percent shooting, 17.3 PER
It's not yet January, so we're still in "Let's see how long it takes for the Sacramento Kings to realize they're toast" portion of the season. And, after years and years of expectations run afoul, that can get old.
Fortunately for Sacramento, as well as anyone brave enough to loyally watch chaos unfurl, Willie Cauley-Stein has been nothing if not highly entertaining.
Most of his numbers won't lure you into an awe-struck coma, but he's almost averaging a double-double per 36 minutes, and Sacramento is a net-plus with him on the floor—which is more than we can say for any of its other everyday rotation players.
Cauley-Stein does need to develop into more of a self-sufficient scorer, and he hasn't flashed any additional range. More than 90 percent of his makes have come inside five feet of the basket, and his free-throw percentage (52.9) has plunged to "Whack-a-Willie" levels of terrible.
Still, he has played with enough energy to warrant recent re-entry into the starting lineup, and his initial partnership with DeMarcus Cousins has yielded promising returns. The Kings, in fact, are obliterating opponents when those two share the floor, in large part because Cauley-Stein is an expert high-screener and off-ball slasher.
That's good enough for now—especially when Cauley-Stein's fly-everywhere defense is often the only method of points prevention keeping Sacramento afloat.
8. T.J. McConnell, Philadelphia 76ers
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2015-16 Per-Game Stats: 29 minutes, 5.1 points, 4.6 rebounds, 8.3 assists, 1.3 steals, 42.2 percent shooting, 13.8 PER
T.J. McConnell would be higher if not for the glaring holes in his game. He's a steal-chasing sieve on the defensive end and hardly quick enough to keep up with the average floor general. His three-point percentage has been on the decline since he was a sophomore in college, and he's not aggressive enough in looking for his own shot on the move. He has yet to even attempt a single free throw.
At the risk of oversimplifying things, none of that matters because of what McConnell has accomplished as a playmaker. The Philadelphia 76ers offense is better with him on the floor—still incurably inadequate but noticeably and statistically better.
As Jonathan Tjarks wrote over at the Pattern of Basketball: "TJ McConnell definitely helps this team because he's a 'true PG' who makes the easy play, knows how to set his teammates up and run an offense and doesn't make a lot of bad decisions."
Not only does McConnell lead all rookies in assist percentage (44.5), but he ranks third in the entire league, behind only Ricky Rubio and Rajon Rondo. If McConnell keeps this up, he'll post the highest assist rate of any neophyte in NBA history.
And while he's contending for that honor prematurely, not to mention for a truly terrible offensive team, he's having a profound impact on some of Philly's most important players.
Both Nerlens Noel's and Jahlil Okafor's shooting percentages climb by at least 15 percentage points when playing beside McConnell. That's enough to render him a keeper—even in the revolving door that is Philadelphia.
7. Jerian Grant, New York Knicks
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2015-16 Per-Game Stats: 21.4 minutes, 6.9 points, 2.6 rebounds, 4.1 assists, 0.8 steals, 41.5 percent shooting, 12.3 PER
Jose Calderon should not be averaging more minutes than Jerian Grant.
Not when Grant is the New York Knicks' leading assist man in limited playing time. Not when Grant has the handle and explosion to attack the basket and collapse opposing defenses.
And most certainly not when the Knicks go from playing like a bottom-five offense with Calderon to a top-three point-packing machine with Grant.
It should be noted that Grant is coughing the ball up more than Calderon and that the rookie appears to have left his three-point touch in college (7.7 percent from deep).
But what he isn't doing on offense, he makes up for on defense. Both he and Langston Galloway are fiery on-ball pests, and Grant has a higher net rating than any of New York's starters.
So while I'm not saying Grant should significantly eat into Calderon's minutes totals—just perhaps replace him as the starting point guard if the Knicks' second unit can spare him—that's only because I'm miming it.
Also: This is your obligatory reminder that New York landed Grant, who is chewing up and spitting out original expectations, for Tim Hardaway Jr., who hasn't played this season.
6. Emmanuel Mudiay, Denver Nuggets
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2015-16 Per-Game Stats: 30.8 minutes, 13.1 points, 4.1 rebounds, 6.3 assists, 1.1 rebounds, 32.7 percent shooting, 9.5 PER
Don't let Emmanuel Mudiay's iffy efficiency fool you. He remains an erratic shooter, and his turnover rate (21.2 percent) is absolutely too high, but that's the learning curve for a rookie point guard charged with the offensive livelihood of a rebuilding team.
Mudiay is, above all else, gutsy. He's attacking the basket more than LeBron James and flinging every type of pass imaginable. The Denver Nuggets' collective shooting percentage, both overall and from deep, rises substantially when he's on the floor, and while he's still getting thrown off-kilter by NBA screens, Mudiay is throwing his 6'5" frame around on the defensive end.
The kid is just plain tough. He has impressed with his at times composed recklessness, along with a short-term memory that won't allow him to harp on previous follies. And in that way, as Bleacher Report's Adam Fromal explained, Mudiay is proving to be everything Denver needs:
"This is exactly what the Nuggets want to see from the young man they selected at No. 7 in the 2015 NBA draft. They need to see him staying aggressive in spite of any negative plays, because he's at his best when he's probing a defense and attempting to drive into the paint. It's easier for the organization to live with his forcing the issue and learning from his mistakes than to watch him play passively.
"
Those mistakes, though still prevalent, are diminishing in volume.
Through a pair of plucky performances against the Portland Trail Blazers on Nov. 9 and the Milwaukee Bucks on Nov. 11, both victories, Mudiay committed just three total turnovers, all while directing the Nuggets with the assuredness of someone who's already good but destined to be much better.
5. Jahlil Okafor, Philadelphia 76ers
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2015-16 Per-Game Stats: 33.8 minutes, 20.6 points, 6.9 rebounds, 1.3 steals, 1.6 blocks, 50.7 percent shooting, 17.4 PER
Good news, Sixers fans: Okafor is every bit as offensively gifted as he was supposed to be. His post moves are complex, his footwork is flawless, and his execution is beyond compare.
It takes serious talent to shoot 50-plus percent on mostly unassisted field goals within the glob of range-less bodies that Philly calls an offense. Okafor leads all rooks in scoring by a mile, and his efficiency has, for the most part, not been compromised by his ineptitude when positioned more than eight feet from the basket.
Now for some bad news: Okafor's offensive dominance isn't enough to carry him higher because he's exactly what he's supposed to be and nothing more.
Skepticism surrounding his ability to work alongside Noel won't soon disappear. The Sixers' already excruciatingly bad offense is even worse when those two are jostling for position, and Okafor is shooting just 36.4 percent beyond the restricted area.
His defensive shortcomings, meanwhile, aren't able to be hidden in plain sight. He's blocking a decent number of shots, but rival offenses are frequently dragging him well outside his comfort zone. Almost 30 percent of the shots he has defended are being attempted more than 15 feet away from the hoop, and opponents are shooting 9.7 percentage points above their season average in those situations.
Nevertheless, Okafor deserves to be recognized for his offensive polish. He has outworked three top-12 defenses in each of the Sixers' last three losses (Toronto Raptors, Chicago Bulls, Orlando Magic), and his coordination off the dribble dwarfs the poise being exhibited from fellow rookie bigs Kristaps Porzingis and Karl-Anthony Towns.
4. Nemanja Bjelica, Minnesota Timberwolves
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2015-16 Per-Game Stats: 28.7 minutes, 8.9 points, 7.4 rebounds, 3.0 assists, 0.6 steals, 50 percent shooting, 14.3 PER
Yes, Nemanja Bjelica.
After four footnote efforts to start the season, the 27-year-old Serbian is coming alive, successfully establishing himself as that legitimate stretch 4 the Minnesota Timberwolves could only dream of last season.
Nearly 70 percent of Bjelica's field-goal attempts are coming from long range, where he's shooting a blistering 44.4 percent. He's faring even better in catch-and-shoot situations, drilling 50 percent of his spot-up triples—which, for the record, represent half of all his looks.
Bjelica has been equally, and surprisingly, dangerous as a passer. He gives the ball to his teammates in the right spots and capitalizes on defensive close-outs that allow Minnesota's post presences room to maneuver toward the rim.
No rookie big man is recording a higher assist percentage, and Bjelica's assist rate (16.3) ranks seventh among all of the Association's towers.
Minnesota is statistically worse with him in the lineup overall, but Bjelica is gradually earning himself more meaningful minutes next to certain starters. Credit head coach Sam Mitchell for liberally experimenting with the Bjelica-Towns frontcourt. The pairing has turned in mixed offensive results to this point, but the Timberwolves have maintained their defensive integrity when both bigs play together, registering a net rating nearly identical to that of the Atlanta Hawks.
Other rookies are dominating headlines and posting sexier per-game splits. But Bjelica is the real deal—that sweet-shooting 4 with a playmaking conscience—and he's the real deal now.
3. Justise Winslow, Miami Heat
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2015-16 Per-Game Stats: 28.3 minutes, 7.3 points, 4.6 rebounds, 1.5 assists, 46.3 percent shooting, 9.4 PER
Justise Winslow doesn't leave the most evident impression in the box score, per se. He is shooting 55 percent on two-pointers but barely 20 percent from downtown, isn't an exceptional passer and doesn't react quickly enough when catching passes.
He is, however, one of the main reasons why the Miami Heat rank second in defensive efficiency. Coach Erik Spoelstra is already tossing him out against some of the league's best wings, and as Chris Bosh noted, per CBS Sports' Zach Harper, Winslow has been up to the challenge:
"Coach kept putting him [on top guys]. He put him on LeBron. Then he put him on James [Harden], and once we saw him on James, it was like OK. Then he guards Paul [George]. Paul got the best of him a little bit but there weren't too many mistakes he made. It was more so on screens. It was on the bigs and the help side defense on that one.
Just look at his poise. These are guys who average 20-30 points a night. DeRozan is [the Raptors'] leading scorer. He gets to the line 10 times a night. He averages 20-plus points. He just made it a nightmare for him.
"
Opponents are shooting just 35.5 percent overall and only 22.2 percent from long range when being defended by Winslow. He ranks in the top five of defensive box plus/minus among all rookies, and the Heat are outpacing rival teams by 17 points per 100 possessions when he's on the floor.
Flashier per-game totals will come in time.
Or maybe they won't.
Miami doesn't need Winslow to be its box-score savior. That's a job for any combination of Bosh, Goran Dragic and Dwyane Wade.
All the Heat need from Winslow is what they're already getting—what they couldn't have possibly expected from him this soon: defensive fortitude that will help them punch a ticket into the postseason.
2. Kristaps Porzingis, New York Knicks
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2015-16 Per-Game Stats: 24.7 minutes, 11.6 points, 9.0 rebounds, 1.0 steal, 1.2 blocks, 39.2 percent shooting, 16.8 PER
A hearty welcome to all newcomers just now boarding the Kristaps Porzingis hype train. Please remain seated, because we're rolling at full bore. And please don't bother looking for the exits, because there are none.
Porzingis' legend is growing with each and every putback slam and failed buzzer-beater. It's actually getting a little out of control. After all, it can be hard to keep things in proper perspective when you have small-sample hooligans (me) referring to him as "Dirkordan Jowitzki" for his DeAndre Jordan-like explosion and Dirk Nowitzki-esque offensive armory.
But those wondering aloud about what Porzingis will say at his Hall of Fame speech aren't (always) trying to misrepresent his performance. Sensationalized talk is meant more to acknowledge how important he has become to the Knicks.
Ahem:
| 100.4 | 95.3 | 5.1 | 54.9 | |
| 102.6 | 107.1 | -4.5 | 47.7 |
There are barriers through which Porzingis must still bust. His release can be too slow, and though he's shooting better than 45 percent from inside the three-point line, he's not superseding the league average in any one area. That he leads the NBA in personal fouls, as a gangly rookie, isn't profoundly shocking, but it's nonetheless helped keep his minutes south of 25 per game.
And yet, the way he carries himself, for a rookie, cannot be overstated. He's already at the point where New York is drawing up plays for him down the stretch. And following his "game-winner that wasn't" against the Charlotte Hornets on Nov. 11, Porzingis did not wallow in disappointment. He did something better, per the New York Post's Marc Berman: He moved on.
If that doesn't do it for you, the fact that he's irreplaceable to a potential playoff team should. And if that still doesn't do it for you, his quest to become the first rookie since Shaquille O'Neal to average 16 points, 13 rebounds and one block per 36 minutes most definitely will.
1. Karl-Anthony Towns, Minnesota Timberwolves
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2015-16 Per-Game Stats: 29 minutes, 16.0 points, 10.4 rebounds, 1.3 assists, 3.0 blocks, 48.9 percent shooting, 22.1 PER
This isn't hard.
Right now, Minnesota owns one of the NBA's seven best defenses. And, right now, Towns is on track to post the third-best block percentage and defensive box plus/minus of any rookie in league history. That's no coincidence.
Towns is also averaging more than 15 points and 10 rebounds while playing under 30 minutes per game. That's only ever been done once by a rookie.
In the event Towns' current rate of production holds, he'll be the first-ever newbie to average 19.5 points, 12.5 rebounds and 3.5 blocks per 36 minutes.
He leads his entire rookie class in win shares.
His PER, should it stand, would go down as one of the 15 best first-timer marks in NBA history.
So no, this isn't hard. Towns is making it too easy.
At this very moment, not even halfway into his professional career, he's already good enough to be the backbone of an above-average defense and featured option on offense.
Towns, a rookie, is already playing like a seasoned All-Star.
Stats courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com and NBA.com unless otherwise cited and are accurate through Nov. 11.
Dan Favale covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter, @danfavale.
