Pumping the Brakes on the Kristaps Porzingis Hype Train
The NBA's rookie class of 2015 is off to a strong start, but no first-year player has seen a more dramatic turnaround in his personal stock than Kristaps Porzingis.
Those same New York Knicks fans who booed him on draft day are now cheering his every jumper, dribble and putback slam at Madison Square Garden.
Carmelo Anthony, who was reportedly upset with Phil Jackson's decision to select the 7'3" Latvian sensation, is now singing the praises of both Porzingis and the New York front office, via ESPN.com's Ian Begley:
Where once Knicks assistant Kurt Rambis wondered aloud whether it might be best to bring the Zinger off the bench, now New York can't keep him out of the starting five.
Even folks without direct ties to the Knicks organization are taking notice. Magic Johnson is high on the so-called Porzingawd:
So is former Grantlander Jason Concepcion:
And none other than the New York Daily News' Frank Isola:
In some respects, it's hard not to get excited about a newcomer who does things like this on a basketball court:
Except real NBA success entails much more than just highlight reels and Twitter hoopla. The Wall Street Journal's Chris Herring has seen more than his fair share of that in support of Porzingis:
Make no mistake: There's good cause for tempering all the lofty talk about Porzingis, but that doesn't mean there won't be a time, perhaps even in the near future, to gas up expectations again.
Physicality Not His Forte...Yet
Strength was a concern for Porzingis when he first arrived on the NBA scene. He's already pushed his weight up to 243 pounds, from 230 pounds when he was drafted, but understands that he still has a long way to go.
"As you can see, I’m still skinny, I’m still light. But I fight hard and I can’t back down to anybody," Porzingis said after the Knicks beat the Los Angeles Lakers on Sunday, according to Begley.
That's all well and good, but willpower will only get you so far when you're trying to check the biggest, baddest basketball players on the planet.
It's no wonder, then, that Porzingis has had such difficulty defending without fouling. Through his first nine games, he's racked up a league-leading 34 infractions.
Eventually, those whistles should subside as Porzingis learns the nuances of NBA defense, adds bulk to his body and builds a rapport with referees.
The same could be said for his performance on the other end. For a player of his size and touted skill, Porzingis has barely gotten to touch the ball on the block. According to NBA.com, a mere 10.2 percent percent of his touches have come in the low post.
Granted, it's not always easy or prudent for Porzingis to demand the ball down there, with Anthony and Robin Lopez typically hogging and clogging the lane with their backs to the basket. But if Porzingis is going to be a long-term fit in the triangle offense, he'll have to be a bigger factor on that front.
"Kristaps is learning where his offense is going to come from, where he’s going to be most effective," said head coach Derek Fisher, according to the New York Post's Marc Berman. "He hasn’t quite learned how to play on the post just yet. He obviously can shoot the basketball well, but most of his offense is coming from his activity, offensive rebounds, running the floor."
Make Buckets, Not Bricks
To say that Porzingis can "obviously" shoot the ball is overstating it a bit at this point. Sure, he hasn't been shy to let it fly, and the rock flings rather effortlessly from his hands.
The reality to date, though, is that Porzingis has shot poorly from all over the floor—which is disconcerting, since he left Sevilla for American shores with a reputation for marksmanship. So far, he's hit just 20.8 percent of his 2.9 threes per game. Among players who've averaged at least 2.5 long balls this season, Porzingis' percentage puts him at 124th out of 133 of his peers, per NBA.com.
Not that he's been much more proficient from inside the arc. Wherever you look on the floor, you're bound to find a spot from which Porzingis shoots well below a league-average clip:
| Porzingis | .452 | .565 | .421 | .375 | .400 | .208 |
| League Average | .480 | .625 | .439 | .390 | .398 | .337 |
That hasn't done much to stem the tide of Dirk Nowitzki comparisons. Toronto head coach Dwane Casey, a former assistant with the Dallas Mavericks, drew a measured parallel between the two after the Knicks' 111-109 win over the Raptors on Tuesday.
"He’s long—nowhere near Dirk yet. But he’s Dirk-like from his length, his range with his three-point shot," Casey explained to Berman. "He’s fearless and he’s long and a rebounder. He rebounds with his length. He’s going to be a force to be reckoned with in this league for a long time."
The key phrase there: "going to be." Not "is."
Even Nowitzki needed time to find his footing. He's now widely recognized as one of the greatest shooters of all time, but as a rookie, the giant German canned just 20.6 percent of his threes and 40.5 percent of his field goals overall.
The Good News
To be sure, there are plenty of reasons for Knicks fans to be excited about Porzingis. Among the first, to which Fisher and Casey both alluded, are the energy, hustle and fearlessness with which he plays. Despite his slender frame and apparent lack of grown-man-with-a-bushy-beard strength, Porzingis hasn't hesitated to attack the glass, often with a vengeance:
He's already New York's leading rebounder. He's fourth in the league in offensive rebounds per game, only behind Andre Drummond, Dwight Howard and Rudy Gobert.
And, though foul-prone, Porzingis has proved a proficient rim protector. He's averaging more than a block per game and, according to NBA.com, he's been a top-10 deterrent, in terms of opponent field goal percentage, among those who've faced at least five attempts at the rim per game:
| Rudy Gobert | 33.5 | 0.6 | 3.4 | 8.1 | 10.9 | 31.6% |
| Draymond Green | 32.9 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 5.9 | 6.7 | 33.3% |
| Karl-Anthony Towns | 29.0 | 0.3 | 3.0 | 8.0 | 10.7 | 36% |
| Bismack Biyombo | 16.8 | 0.2 | 1.2 | 3.6 | 5.1 | 37% |
| Hassan Whiteside | 29.4 | 0.6 | 3.9 | 8.6 | 10.6 | 38.8% |
| Kristaps Porzingis | 24.7 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 5.7 | 6.1 | 39.1% |
| Thomas Robinson | 13.1 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 3.5 | 5.0 | 40% |
| LaMarcus Aldridge | 30.1 | 0.3 | 0.8 | 6.6 | 5.9 | 40.4% |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo | 34.4 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 5.6 | 5.9 | 40.4% |
| Timofey Mozgov | 21.1 | 0 | 1.1 | 3.3 | 5.5 | 40.9% |
Clearly, Porzingis is positively impacting the Knicks on both ends of the floor and has the tools and talent to expand his footprint at MSG. In time, he might even be the next big thing in the Big Apple.
Either way, there will be bumps and potholes on Porzingis' path toward turning tantalizing potential into actual NBA production.
"I don’t think we could anticipate he’s been as good as he’s been, [but] there will probably be a stretch for two weeks where he looks bad and everybody’s questioning whether we should’ve drafted him," Fisher said, according to Howie Kussoy of the New York Post. "I just think it’s important that we continue to give him space to find out who he is, how he can help us."
For now, let's sit back, relax and watch the kid continue to turn heads.
Stats are accurate as of Nov. 12, 2015.
Josh Martin covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter.
