Miami Dolphins vs. Buffalo Bills Betting Odds, Analysis, NFL Pick

The Buffalo Bills (3-4) and Miami Dolphins (3-4) will both try to get back on the winning track when they meet for the second time this season in an AFC East matchup Sunday. The Bills crushed the Dolphins 41-14 in Miami back in Week 3 as one-point underdogs and have gone 10-4 straight up and against the spread in the last 14 meetings during the month of November.

Point spread: The Bills opened as three-point favorites; the total was 46 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark. (Line updates and matchup report)

NFL pick, via Odds Shark computer: 25.5-20.2 Bills

Why the Dolphins can cover the spread

The Dolphins are in a much better spot this time around than they were before the first meeting, when things had already started to unravel for former head coach Joe Philbin. Dan Campbell has since replaced Philbin and has done a solid job in leading the team to two wins in three games, even though it is coming off a 36-7 road loss to the defending Super Bowl champion New England Patriots, who remain unbeaten.

Falling to the Patriots is nothing to be ashamed of considering nobody else has defeated them, making this game at Buffalo more of a measuring stick to see how Miami stacks up with others in the division. Before that loss, the Dolphins dominated the Houston Texans and Tennessee Titans by a combined score of 82-36 and covered the spread easily both times, so they are looking for more of the same here.

Why the Bills can cover the spread

Like Miami, the Bills lost in London before their bye last week and have had the chance to use the extra time to make some improvements. They have lost three straight home games since upsetting the Indianapolis Colts 27-14 as one-point underdogs in the season opener, but two of their opponents (the Patriots and Cincinnati Bengals) are a combined 14-0, while the other (the New York Giants) leads the NFC East.

Buffalo is also expected to get quarterback Tyrod Taylor back from a knee injury after he missed both losses during the team’s two-game skid. Taylor had a huge game in the first meeting, throwing for a season-high 277 yards and three touchdowns.

Smart pick

The Dolphins are 0-3 in divisional games this season and have a lot of pressure to earn a road victory here—probably too much pressure, which usually does not work out well. Campbell did a solid job in getting Miami a couple of wins, but he is not head coaching material and will be overmatched by Rex Ryan.

Some say Ryan is overrated, but he covered three straight against the Dolphins before leaving the New York Jets and picked up another win and cover earlier this year. Look for Ryan to make it five covers in a row as the Bills roll to another double-digit victory in the second meeting.

Betting trends

The Bills are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games after losing as favorites.

The Dolphins are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games in Week 9.

The Dolphins are 4-10 SU and ATS in their last 14 games against the Bills in November.

All point spread and lines data courtesy of Odds Shark, and all quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates and get the free odds tracker app.