Cleveland Browns vs. Cincinnati Bengals Betting Odds, Analysis, NFL Pick

The Cincinnati Bengals will try to beat the Browns for the seventh time in 11 meetings and stay perfect at 8-0 when they host Cleveland (2-6) in the Week 9 Thursday night game. The Bengals are coming off a 16-10 victory versus the Pittsburgh Steelers last week as one-point road underdogs and also improved to 6-0-1 against the spread this season.

Point spread: Bengals opened as 10-point favorites; the total was 47 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark. (Line updates and matchup report found here.)

NFL pick, via Odds Shark computer: 32.2-18.4 Bengals

Why the Browns can cover the spread

While Cincinnati is 6-3 in the past nine meetings with Cleveland, the three wins for the Browns have all taken place in the last five games. The most recent victory in the series came last year in the Week 10 Thursday night game when Cleveland stunned the Bengals 24-3 as a six-point road dog. The Browns are 7-4-1 ATS in the past 12 meetings despite winning only four of those games straight up.

Cleveland faced one of the top offenses in the NFL last week in the Arizona Cardinals and led them 20-10 at halftime before the wheels fell off after the intermission. Cincinnati is not as good offensively, and the status of Browns quarterback Josh McCown should be monitored closely before kickoff. If McCown can play with sore ribs, he gives them a solid chance to be competitive again and cover the spread.

Why the Bengals can cover the spread

The Bengals still seem to be flying under the radar this year even though they remain unbeaten. Last Sunday’s win at Pittsburgh was ugly, but it was still a victory and came against one of their biggest rivals on the road. For the first time this season, Cincy quarterback Andy Dalton threw more interceptions than touchdowns, yet the team found a way to win by keeping the Steelers out of the end zone most of the game with great defense. Pittsburgh’s lone touchdown came on the opening drive.

Cincinnati also can learn from last season’s home loss to Cleveland and will not take the Browns lightly. Last year, the Steelers were able to take the division title by sweeping the Bengals, who realize how important divisional wins are down the road. Before losing to Cleveland and Pittsburgh at home last season, Cincinnati had won five straight divisional home games both SU and ATS.

Smart pick

The Bengals are coming off their biggest win of the season against the Steelers and definitely do not want to give one back right here the next week by suffering their first loss to a divisional foe. If McCown was healthy for the Browns, they might be able to hang in there and make it a game. But he is not, and Cincy will take advantage of the situation just like last week when Steelers running back Le’Veon Bell left the game with a knee injury. Back the Bengals to win big and cover easily on Thursday night.

Betting trends

The Bengals are 8-1 SU in their last nine games after winning as an underdog.

The Browns are 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 games as underdogs against the Bengals.

The Bengals are 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS in their last four games in November.

All point-spread and lines data courtesy of Odds Shark, all quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line-movement updates and get the free odds tracker app.