NCAA Football Rankings 2015: Predicting First Official Playoff Standings

As we advance to November with plenty of games to remember, the College Football Playoff committee is set to release its first rankings Tuesday to much anticipation.

The Associated Press Top 25 is a good indicator, but it's certainly not the blueprint for which the 12-person committee orders teams. It's final rankings last year—its inaugural season—left out AP No. 4 Baylor Bears in favor of the Ohio State Buckeyes, which went on to win the title as the lowest among the four seeds. 

The CFP committee was established to add emphasis to the human element of selection unlike its polarized predecessor, the BCS, which accounted a complicated computer formula as one-third of criteria towards its standings.

The committee won't fully eliminate conflict, with 12 albeit esteemed experts deciding a champion’s fate. But this format has presented a refreshing and long-awaited change after 16 seasons with the BCS. 

With the first of six CFP rankings on the horizon before the field is narrowed to four, here’s a glance at which teams are in and out. 

These predictions reflect the teams that deserve to be ranked among the top four—not necessarily which will finish there. There are still championships to determine and upcoming head-to-head competition, as eight of the AP Top 10 have remaining games against fellow teams within those ranks. 

Team	CFP Prediction	AP Week 10 Rank	Record
Ohio State Buckeyes	1	1	8-0
Clemson Tigers	2	3	8-0
LSU Tigers	3	4	7-0
Baylor Bears	4	2	7-0

No. 1 Ohio State Buckeyes

David J. Phillip/Associated Press

Ohio State is undefeated and the defending champion. It has been No. 1 since January, and there’s no dispute to including it in the top four. 

While they don’t boast the strength of schedule that LSU and Clemson do, and they haven’t been blowing out teams they way they were supposed to, the Buckeyes are arguably more talented than the 2014 team that won it all. Tom Fornelli of CBS Sports added perspective as to why Ohio State should be No. 1:

"

So even when this team doesn't play its best, it can still beat you by just being better at football than you are. 

It also has a coach in Urban Meyer who has proven to be one of the best coaches in the country. The man has won over 85 percent of the games he's coached (93.8 percent of his games at Ohio State!) for a reason. He's very good at his job. 

So, when you add it all up, Ohio State has better players and a better coach than just everybody else in the country.

"

The Buckeyes will be without starting quarterback J.T. Barrett in Week 10 vs. the Minnesota Golden Gophers in light of the sophomore's DUI arrest on Oct. 31. But because he was charged with a misdemeanor, Barrett will only miss one game and return to the team on Nov. 14 against Illinois, per Brett McMurphy of ESPN.

Ohio State should be fine with backup Cardale Jones, who started the first seven games this year after leading the team to the title last year when Barrett went down with a season-ending injury.

The Buckeyes still face daunting road games against No. 6 Michigan State and No. 16 Michigan to finish the regular season, then possibly a Big 10 championship game, likely against No. 10 Iowa. 

So there’s certainly room for slip-ups. But the Spartans, Wolverines and Hawkeyes have all looked vulnerable this season, so Ohio State could certainly run the table and reach the playoff riding a horde of momentum.

No. 2 Clemson Tigers

Alex Menendez/Getty Images

Clemson has emerged as arguably the most complete team in college football. The Tigers rank fifth in FBS total defense (278 yards per game), 11th in scoring offense (40.6 points per game) and the complement has outscored opponents, 355-141. 

Quarterback Deshaun Watson continues to make a case for the Heisman Trophy, having completed 70 percent of his passes with 1,949 pass yards, 386 rush yards and 24 total touchdowns, including six scores in a Week 9 win over N.C. State.

The Tigers opened as 12-point favorites, per Odds Shark, in their final big hurdle Saturday against No. 17 Florida State Seminoles. The wide margin shows Vegas might believe Clemson is better than most think, per Clay Travis of FOX Sports:

If the Tigers survive, they finish the regular season against unranked Syracuse, Wake Forest and South Carolina, which are a combined 9-16. Clemson has won its last 36 games against unranked opponents, according to Aaron Beard of the Associated Press, and would eye an ACC title game in which it’ll be heavily favored, likely against No. 21 North Carolina Tar Heels. 

Of the four teams here, Clemson has the easiest path to the playoff. 

No. 3 LSU Tigers

Chris Graythen/Getty Images

If Clemson has the easiest road among these four, LSU assuredly has the most difficult. 

The Tigers face a daunting November with four games against SEC West opponents, three among the AP Top 25, starting with Saturday’s colossal matchup at No. 7 Alabama.

David Ching of ESPN encompassed just how strenuous a stretch the Tigers will weather:

"

Starting with Saturday's visit to Alabama, LSU will close the season with a four-game slate that ESPN's Football Power Index rates as the nation's most difficult remaining schedule. That same metric has LSU as an underdog in each of its remaining road games: at Alabama (40.4 percent chance of victory) and Nov. 21 at Ole Miss (41.6). And while it favors LSU to beat Arkansas and Texas A&M at home, those games aren't gimmes, either.

"

A one-loss SEC champion would seem likely to reach the playoff, which would potentially allow LSU a hiccup. But perhaps not against Alabama or No. 19 Ole Miss (which it faces on Nov. 21), as those two only have one conference loss and would hold a tiebreaker over LSU to win the West. 

The Tigers do have the nation’s best player, though. Running back Leonard Fournette is running away in the Heisman race anchoring an offense that shows continued improvement. After ranking last among SEC quarterbacks in passing, Brandon Harris has thrown for 716 yards and seven touchdowns with no interceptions the past three games. 

If Fournette continues his torrid pace and can lean more on the rest of the offense, the Tigers could go unbeaten.

No. 4 Baylor Bears

Jamie Squire/Getty Images

After being the first team out last year, Baylor has responded with the most productive offense in the country, scoring a whopping 61.1 points per game, up from its FBS-best 48.2 in 2014. 

But Stewart Mandel of FOX Sports indicated Baylor could be hindered by its same handicap as last year:

"

As dominant as Baylor has been, the committee explicitly weighs strength of schedule — and Baylor’s to this point is atrocious. Its six FBS opponents are a combined 16-32. The Bears also played FCS Lamar. 

Art Briles’ defiantly weak nonconference slate hurt his team in the final rankings and could here as well. But does that mean Baylor is fourth instead of second or something more drastic than that?

"

Baylor also lost starting quarterback and offensive catalyst Seth Russell for the rest of the season to a neck fracture. Replacing the FBS’ top-rated passer with true freshman Jarrett Stidham warrants alarming concerns—particularly given the Bears haven’t yet played under Stidham after a bye in Week 9.

Baylor was shunned last year with fellow Big 12 foe the TCU Horned Frogs, ranked sixth in the final CFP rankings and currently fifth in the AP Top 25. One will be eliminated from playoff contention when the two meet on Nov. 27 at TCU.

The Bears don’t have the pedigree of the other three teams, but they’ve done everything right to this point to deserve to be here.