Bigger Mistake for Nebraska: Firing Bo Pelini, or Hiring Mike Riley?

When Nebraska fired Bo Pelini following the 2014 season, NU athletic director Shawn Eichorst told reporters that “we weren’t good enough in the games that mattered.”

As Mike Riley’s first season as head coach hits the home stretch, the Cornhuskers simply aren’t good enough, period. An ugly 55-45 loss to Purdue dropped Nebraska to 3-6, and NU must win its last three games to avoid missing a bowl for the third time since 1969. Given that Top 10 foes Iowa and Michigan State are on the docket, spending Christmas at home is a real possibility.

While Nebraska wanted to take its program to a nationally elite level, the Huskers may have dealt themselves a serious blow by hiring Riley away from Oregon State. Eleven years ago, Nebraska fell into a funk after firing Frank Solich, Tom Osborne’s successor, despite a 58-19 record over six seasons, including a trio of seasons with at least 10 wins.

Since then, Nebraska has only three 10-win seasons and no national titles or BCS-level bowl berths, and firing Pelini seems to have only deepened that funk. Pelini was 66-27 at Nebraska and won at least nine games in each of his seven seasons (a streak that is tied with Oregon for second-longest in the FBS), with a pair of 10-win seasons.

Following his firing, emotional Nebraska quarterback Tommy Armstrong Jr. tweeted that Pelini’s firing was "the biggest mistake" Nebraska ever made, which looks prophetic:

Pelini’s teams struggled against good teams (Nebraska was 8-17 against teams ranked in the Associated Press Top 25 under his watch) and lost 10 games by 20 points or more, including an embarrassing 70-31 loss to Wisconsin in the 2012 Big Ten title game.

Pelini’s volatile temper and sideline outbursts were negatives, and Deadspin leaked a recording (Warning: NSFW) of him ripping Nebraska fans before his weekly radio show when the Huskers struggled in September 2013. But there’s no mistaking his consistency—something that has been sorely missing under Riley’s watch.

When Nebraska hired Riley away from Oregon State, the move was hailed as a culture change. Riley is one of the nicest coaches in college football and is widely respected by news media. But he is 62 years old, hardly young by modern standards, and brought a 93-80 record from 14 combined years at Oregon State (1997-98 and 2003-14).

However, he had only one nine-win season and a pair of losing seasons in his final six seasons at Oregon State. Under Riley’s watch, the Huskers have simply been unable to close. BYU’s game-winning Hail Mary in the season opener set the tone for a year of frustrating defeats.

Before Saturday, each of Nebraska’s five losses have come by five points or less, including a 36-33 overtime loss at Miami and a 23-21 loss at Wisconsin that saw the Badgers kick the game-winning field goal with four seconds left.

Losing to Purdue was just the latest indignity.

The Boilermakers entered 1-6, with their only win over FCS foe Indiana State, and had largely been non-competitive. Injuries to key offensive cogs like quarterback Tommy Armstrong Jr. and wide receiver De’Mornay Pierson-El hurt, but there’s no excusing building a 42-16 hole against the Boilers or giving up 55 points to a team that had scored 41 points combined in losses to Michigan State, Wisconsin and Minnesota.

Firing Riley after one season would be harsh, and Nebraska has historically shown significant patience with its coaches. (Even Bill Callahan got four seasons.) But it’s clear that the Huskers have taken a significant step back in their first post-Pelini season. If this was the best they could do, firing him was a big mistake.