World Series 2015: Odds, Stat Projections for Royals vs. Mets Game 3

Mike Chiari@mikechiariFeatured ColumnistOctober 29, 2015

Kansas City Royals' Alcides Escobar watches his RBI single against the New York Mets during the fifth inning of Game 2 of the Major League Baseball World Series Wednesday, Oct. 28, 2015, in Kansas City, Mo. (AP Photo/Charlie Riedel)
Charlie Riedel/Associated Press

The World Series shifts back to New York Friday for Game 3, and the Mets have their backs against the wall after dropping each of the first two contests to the red-hot Kansas City Royals.

New York seemingly had the starting pitching advantage in Games 1 and 2, but that didn't lead to victories. The Mets once again look to have the upper hand on the mound leading up to Game 3 with Noah Syndergaard going up against Yordano Ventura, and they simply can't afford to let the opportunity slip away.

Ahead of Friday's pivotal Game 3, here is a look at the latest odds, stat projections for both teams and a prediction for which side will ultimately come out on top.

Where: Citi Field in Queens, New York

When: Friday, Oct. 30 at 8:07 p.m. ET

Watch: Fox

Game 3 Odds Breakdown

Betting Odds for World Series Game 3
Kansas City Royals27-207
New York Mets20-297

Royals Stat Projections

Kansas City Royals Stat Projections for Game 3
Alcides EscobarSS412000
Ben Zobrist2B401000
Lorenzo CainCF412100
Eric Hosmer1B300010
Mike Moustakas3B401100
Salvador PerezC400000
Alex GordonLF301010
Alex RiosRF300000
Yordano VenturaSP200000
Yordano VenturaSP5.053336

Mets Stat Projections

New York Mets Stat Projections for Game 3
Curtis GrandersonRF411010
David Wright3B412000
Daniel Murphy2B301110
Yoenis CespedesLF311110
Lucas Duda1B412201
Travis d'ArnaudC300010
Wilmer FloresSS401000
Juan LagaresCF400000
Noah SyndergaardSP300000
Noah SyndergaardSP7.062217

Game 3 Prediction

Julie Jacobson/Associated Press

The Mets were favored to even the World Series up in Game 2 with Jacob deGrom on the mound, but they were instead blown out 7-1. Despite the result, New York is once again favored to win its first game of the series Friday.

If the Mets are going to get back on track, though, they must find a way to to take away what have been the Royals' biggest strengths in the World Series thus far.

Chief among them may be the Kansas City lineup's propensity for making contact and putting the ball in play. According to Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports, the Royals swung and missed on just three pitches in Game 2 despite going up against a strikeout pitcher with nasty stuff in the form of deGrom.

The Royals simply don't help the opposition out at the plate, which is why they are capable of manufacturing so many runs and putting together big innings.

Syndergaard will look to put a stop to that in Game 3, and third baseman David Wright believes he is more than capable of getting the Mets back in the series, per Kevin Kernan of the New York Post:

"He's throwing the ball as well as anybody in the playoffs," Wright said. "I think when you have that type of stuff and the command he has shown especially in the playoffs, you should have a lot of confidence. Just look at him, he's ready to roll."

In addition to slowing down the Royals' hitters, New York must start generating some offense of its own. Aside from first baseman Lucas Duda, nobody is doing damage at the plate for the Mets right now.

That includes second baseman Daniel Murphy, who entered the World Series having homered in six consecutive games.

According to Mike Puma of the New York Post, Mets hitting coach Kevin Long believes the Royals have done an excellent job of essentially pitching around Murphy:

"He really hasn't gotten too many pitches to hit, that is the bottom line," Long said. "Pitches are off the plate, low, high. Murph walked twice today, he is doing what he needs to do. He is taking what they are giving him. They haven't given him a whole lot."

Murphy's hot hitting opened things up for the entire lineup in the National League Division Series and National League Championship Series, so the Mets need him to find a way to get going again regardless of how well the Royals have done in terms of staying out of his wheelhouse.

If they can do that, then a comeback is certainly possible—as the Mets have pulled it off before, per ESPN Stats & Info:

ESPN Stats & Info @ESPNStatsInfo

Mets have come back from a 2-0 World Series deficit before ... in 1986 to win in 7 games against the Red Sox

Being down 2-0 in the World Series isn't an ideal place to be, but trailing 3-0 is as dire as it gets. Because of that, the Mets can't afford to feel sorry for themselves, and they must empty the tank to get back in the series.

Much of that rides on the right arm of Syndergaard, and he'll be up to the task in a 4-2 Mets victory at home.

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