Arizona Cardinals vs. Cleveland Browns Betting Odds, Analysis and NFL Pick

The Cleveland Browns (2-5) will attempt to break a two-game skid and take advantage of a short week for their opponent when they host the Arizona Cardinals (5-2) on Sunday. The Browns have gone 4-1 against the spread in their past five games following consecutive losses, while the Cardinals just beat the Baltimore Ravens on Monday night but failed to cover for the third time in four games.

Point spread: Cardinals opened as 4.5-point favorites; the total was 47 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark (line updates and matchup report).

NFL pick, via Odds Shark computer: 26.8-20.6 Cardinals

Why the Cardinals can cover the spread

Arizona will be playing an AFC North opponent for the third straight week, but Cleveland is arguably the division’s worst team even though Baltimore has one more loss. Defensively, the Cardinals will be facing a one-dimensional Browns offense that has relied on quarterback Josh McCown to keep them in games so far.

When McCown struggles, so does the team. He has totaled 483 yards combined over the last two games—both losses—after throwing for a career-high 457 in an overtime victory at Baltimore. Last Sunday, the Browns rushed for just 82 yards on 24 carries as a team, with McCown gaining 21 of those. Robert Turbin had a team-high 30 yards.

Why the Browns can cover the spread

Cleveland will be facing an Arizona offense that has not been at its best over the last two games, averaging 19.5 points after scoring 38 per game in the first five. While the Cardinals played well in their win over the Ravens, they have not shown the same killer instinct lately that they did in winning four of their first five games.

The Browns are looking for their first home win since defeating the Tennessee Titans 28-14 as underdogs in Week 2. They are 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 games as home dogs and have won seven of them straight up, snapping a three-game skid with that victory against Tennessee. Cleveland also nearly handed the Denver Broncos their first loss in Week 6 at home but ultimately fell 26-23 in overtime as three-point dogs.

Smart pick

The Browns would seem to be a good play as a home dog in this spot, but McCown is dealing with a shoulder injury and second-year player Johnny Manziel would be overwhelmed against the Arizona defense. Expect the Cardinals to return to their dominant form from the first month of the season on both sides of the ball and roll to an easy road win and cover like they did at Chicago and Detroit earlier this year.

Betting trends

The Cardinals are 3-13 SU in their last 16 games in Week 8.

The Browns are 4-1 ATS in their last five games after consecutive losses.

The Cardinals are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games in November.

All point spread and lines data courtesy of Odds Shark, all quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates and get the free odds tracker app.