Green Bay Packers vs. Denver Broncos Betting Odds, Analysis, NFL Pick

One of the most highly anticipated games of the NFL season will take place on Sunday night in Denver when the Broncos (6-0) host the Green Bay Packers (6-0) in a matchup between two of the league’s five undefeated teams. Both are coming off byes, with the Packers going 6-0 straight up and against the spread in their last six games following an off week. The home team has also won six of the past eight meetings.

Point spread: The Packers opened as three-point favorites; the total was 43 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark (line updates and matchup report).

NFL pick, via Odds Shark computer: 24.0-17.4 Broncos

Why the Packers can cover the spread

Green Bay is a much better offensive team than Denver right now and was also able to work on some of its defensive shortcomings during the bye. Some might think that Broncos quarterback Peyton Manning should be able to have a field day after Philip Rivers of the San Diego Chargers torched the Packers D for 503 yards—but they still lost.

Aaron Rodgers is clearly in his prime for Green Bay while Manning definitely is not, instead depending on Denver’s defense to bail him out repeatedly. In what could very well be Manning’s last season in the NFL, he has thrown more interceptions (10) than touchdowns (seven), something he has not done since his rookie season.

Why the Broncos can cover the spread

While the Broncos have certainly struggled offensively with Manning under center this year, the defense is their strength and should be able to put some serious pressure on Rodgers. The only comparable defense the Packers have faced this season is the Seattle Seahawks, and they were fortunate to be able to play that game at home.

Denver has also performed well as a home underdog of three points or less over the past decade, going 5-2 SU and ATS in its last seven games under that scenario. If Manning still has some magic left in his arm, this is the game for him to showcase his skills and prove to all his doubters that he’s still one of the league’s top signal callers.

Smart pick

Green Bay’s recent record following a bye week shows just how well head coach Mike McCarthy prepares his players and explains why they are favored in this spot against the Broncos. The Packers are the better team, and Denver is not nearly as intimidating a place to play as Seattle, where they almost won the NFC Championship Game back in January with a hobbled Rodgers. Watch for Green Bay to stay unbeaten and cover.

Betting trends

The Packers are 6-0 SU and ATS in their last six games after the bye.

The Packers are 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS in their last six games as road favorites in November.

The Broncos are 5-0 SU and ATS in their last five games as underdogs in November.

All point spread and lines data courtesy of Odds Shark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates and get the free odds tracker app.