West Virginia Mountaineers vs. TCU Horned Frogs Betting Odds, Football Pick

The underdog is 3-0 against the spread in the three West Virginia vs. TCU games since those teams joined the Big 12 three seasons ago; the first two meetings went to overtime, and last year's game was decided by a field goal at the buzzer. The championship-minded Horned Frogs host the upset-minded Mountaineers Thursday night in Fort Worth.

Point spread: The Horned Frogs opened as 14.5-point favorites, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark (line updates and matchup report).

College football pick, via Odds Shark computer: 49.4-25.6 Horned Frogs

Why the West Virginia Mountaineers can cover the spread

West Virginia began this season well enough, with three straight victories, then lost two tough games in a row to ranked Oklahoma and Oklahoma State outfits. Two weeks ago, the Mountaineers lost their third straight game to a ranked team, at Baylor 62-38, then had last week off.

WVU, as a three-touchdown underdog, only trailed the Bears by 10 points at 34-24 well into the third quarter before letting things slip away. Mountaineers quarterback Skyler Howard kept his team in the game with four touchdown passes, but he also threw a key red-zone interception in the first half.

Earlier this month, West Virginia lost to the Sooners, 44-24, but that was a three-point game late into the third quarter. The Mountaineers then fell in overtime to the Cowboys, 33-26, after rallying from a 15-point halftime deficit. If it can move the chains, control some clock with its running game and keep the TCU offense off the field, West Virginia could keep this game close, too.

Why the TCU Horned Frogs can cover the spread

TCU is 7-0 and part of the College Football Playoff conversation following its 45-21 victory at Iowa State two weeks ago. The Frogs then had last week off.

TCU spotted the Cyclones an early 21-14 lead and still came back to cover as a three-touchdown favorite, scoring the last 31 points of the game. The Frogs piled up 621 yards of offense on ISU, as quarterback Trevone Boykin enhanced his Heisman chances by connecting on 27 of 32 throws for 436 yards and four touchdowns, running for 74 yards and another score.

The 45 points it scored against Iowa State was actually TCU's lowest total since Week 1, when it only scored 23 in a win over Minnesota. After that, the Frogs hit the 50-point mark five times in a row.

Smart pick

The Horned Frogs may well win this game, but its defense has given up 840 yards over the last two games. And West Virginia has outrushed four of its last five opponents. Also, playing at home means TCU is probably dealing with a slightly inflated spread. Take the Mountaineers here, plus the points.

Betting trends

The total has gone under in 12 of West Virginia's last 15 games.

West Virginia is 2-10 ATS in its last 12 games in October.

TCU is 14-6 ATS in its last 20 games.

All point spread and lines data courtesy of Odds Shark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates and get the free odds tracker app.