Texas on the Right Track but Making a Bowl Game Won't Be Easy

Three weeks ago, the knives were out in Austin. An extremely ugly 50-7 loss to TCU dropped Texas to 1-4 in Charlie Strong’ second season, and it was fair to wonder if Strong would make it to a third season, much less postseason play this winter.

Since then, Strong has done plenty to right the Longhorns’ listing ship. A 24-17 Red River Rivalry win over Oklahoma was perhaps the most important of his career, and following an open date, the Longhorns ground out a rain-soaked 23-9 win over Kansas State.

At 3-4, talking about a bowl game is once again permissible for those in burnt orange. But the hole that Texas dug itself in the season’s first half won’t be easy to dig out of. Scratching out another bowl trip is possible for Strong, but it’s far from probable.

Michael Thomas/Associated Press

Let’s get it out of the way. The next two weeks should be easy for the Longhorns. Iowa State can be feisty at times, especially in Ames, but the Cyclones simply don’t have the talent to compete with the Big 12’s upper echelon. And they certainly won’t catch Texas off guard after pushing the ‘Horns hard in a 48-45 loss in Austin last year.

Nov. 7 brings a visit from Kansas, which is perhaps the worst Power Five program and a serious threat to go 0-12 this season. Unless something goes seriously wrong, Strong and Co. will be 5-4 in early November, needing just one win in their final three games to make a bowl game.

"

Charlie Strong: "It's all about confidence. You have to continue to build on it." #KSUvsTEX

— Chris Hall (@crshall) October 24, 2015"

That’s where things get dicey. Those three games? At West Virginia, vs. Texas Tech and at Baylor. In other words, much, much tougher. Texas routed the Mountaineers and Red Raiders last season, but the Red Raiders are much improved.

Even before Saturday’s game against Oklahoma, Kliff Kingsbury’s team had already surpassed its win total from 2014’s 4-8 season and averaged 49 points per game, which ranked No. 3 nationally.

West Virginia is struggling at 3-3, but the Mountaineers still possess a potent offense that averages 36 points per game, No. 25 nationally.

Michael Thomas/Associated Press

And Baylor just keeps rolling at 7-0, with the nation’s top scoring offense (averaging 63.8 points per game entering Saturday).

That’s a problem for Strong’s group. Texas has scored more than 27 points in a game just twice this season, beating Rice and falling to Cal. Saturday, the Horns struggled to put away K-State, outgaining the Wildcats, 373-274.

Quarterback Jerrod Heard passed for just 99 yards on 15 attempts, but backup Tyrone Swoopes did score three rushing touchdowns in short-yardage situations. As a team, Texas rushed for 313 yards, its most since 2013.

If the Longhorns can control the clock with a ground-based offense, they’ll have a chance to slow down the more potent offenses ahead. But it won’t be easy. To lock down a bowl game, they’ll have to score more points.

The most important game? The Nov. 14 trip to West Virginia, which could lock down a crucial sixth win and a postseason trip. Beyond that, making postseason play will be difficult without some serious, sudden offensive improvement.