Bills at Jaguars: Full Buffalo Game Preview
After last week’s loss to Cincinnati, the Buffalo Bills have a 3-3 record. They sit two-and-a-half games behind the AFC East leader New England and one game back in the wild-card standings. And next week, the Bills begin a three-game stretch against each of their AFC East opponents.
If Buffalo is to make the playoffs, it cannot lose this week.
On Sunday, Buffalo travels to London for a matchup with the Jacksonville Jaguars. It is the second of three scheduled NFL games in London this year, part of the NFL’s burgeoning international effort, and Sunday marks Buffalo’s first game on European soil.
The Jaguars (1-5) are a perplexing team. Jacksonville won just three games in 2014, none of which came against teams with winning records. And its slow start this year has done little to placate Jags fans, especially given the team’s intriguing but inconsistent group of young talent.
Blake Bortles, the team’s second-year starting quarterback, appears to have made some progress since his lackluster 2014 campaign. He’s already thrown two more touchdowns (13) than he did all of last season (11) and is well on his way to topping last season’s output in passes, completions, yards, passer rating and quarterback rating.
But Bortles continues to struggle with turnovers—he has seven interceptions and one fumble so far in 2015—and is completing less than 60 percent of his passes.
He relies mostly on two of the team’s most exciting players: wideouts Allen Hurns and Allen Robinson. The two account for nine of Bortles’ 11 touchdown passes and nearly 60 percent of his 1,630 passing yards.
The similarities between Robinson and Hurns are obvious: Both are fast, stand 6’3”, are in their second year, play as wideouts and are named Allen. And while Robinson (22) is a year younger than Hurns, neither Robinson nor Hurns nor Bortles is over the age of 23, something that has Jacksonville fans optimistic for their future. That’s a trio the Bills need to look out for on Sunday.
Location: Wembley Stadium, London
Time: 9:30 a.m. ET
TV: Streamed online via Yahoo
News and Notes
1 of 5
Buffalo coach Rex Ryan is famous for his blustery brand of enthusiasm. At its best, that enthusiasm permeates the locker room, raises morale and elevates performance. At worst, that bluster is painfully shallow.
And as USA Today’s Lorenzo Reyes pointed out on Wednesday, the Bills may be experiencing some of the latter, as evidenced by the number of Buffalo players who are openly complaining about their team.
Last week, wideout Sammy Watkins publicly expressed his frustration at the lack of targets he’s received this year. The tactic may have worked, as Buffalo targeted Watkins noticeably more often during last week’s game against the Bengals, although he left midway through the game. But it appears that other Buffalo players have decided to vent their concerns as well.
As ESPN.com’s Mike Rodak reported, defensive linemen Mario Williams, Jerry Hughes and Marcell Dareus questioned Ryan’s defensive play-calling this week, citing a lack of calls designed explicitly to put pressure on Dalton. Ryan responded Wednesday in characteristically loyal fashion, acknowledging his shortcomings while accepting his players’ perspectives.
But frankly, this is a worrisome situation for Buffalo fans: Ryan is a well-respected defensive mind, and the Bills defense was supposed to be the team’s backbone throughout the year. In fairness to Ryan, the run defense has actually been quite good. But the Bills have routinely failed to put any pressure on opposing quarterbacks—they rank 24th in the NFL in sacks—and, with the exception of Andrew Luck and the Indianapolis Colts, have been entirely unable to slow above-average NFL offenses.
Incidentally, Buffalo’s head coach in 2014—Doug Marrone—is now an assistant coach for the Jaguars.
Injury Report
2 of 5
First, as Rodak reported on Twitter, wideout Percy Harvin did not travel to London. He was excused for personal reasons but has battled health issues since the preseason and did not play last week against the Bengals.
Rodak also noted the absence of running back Karlos Williams, tackle Seantrel Henderson and defensive tackle Kyle Williams, all of whom missed the trip for injury reasons. Kyle Williams suffered a serious leg injury near the end of last week’s game, and his absence looms large in Buffalo’s upcoming schedule.
Karlos Williams, meanwhile, has not played in two weeks after suffering a concussion. While star running back LeSean McCoy had perhaps his best game of the season last weekend with 90 yards and one touchdown, Williams was explosive in his first four NFL starts, and if nothing else, the team will miss his depth.
And second, there are as yet no clear answers on the status of quarterback Tyrod Taylor and wideout Watkins. The latter hurt his ankle while making a second-quarter touchdown catch last week and had previously been hobbled for weeks by a nagging calf injury. Taylor hurt his MCL two weeks ago, and backup EJ Manuel started at quarterback against the Bengals.
For what it’s worth, the Bills should play this one safe. It is a must-win game, but it’s also Jacksonville, one of the league’s least imposing teams over the past several years. It is unwise to take any NFL matchup too lightly, but the Bills have been excellent against the rush and pretty good against the pass and are starting McCoy, who finally looked like himself last week.
Key Matchup
3 of 5
Allen Robinson/Allen Hurns vs. Ronald Darby
Darby could feasibly spend a lot of time guarding both Hurns and Robinson. Either way, this is the game’s most intriguing—and critical—matchup.
Darby has been excellent this year. Given Buffalo’s high expectations entering the year and the team’s middling start, Darby is easily one of the brightest spots in the Bills’ 2015 season. He ranks second in the NFL (behind teammate Stephon Gilmore) with 11 passes defensed and is fourth on the team with 29 tackles.
Incidentally, Gilmore—by almost any measure—has been better than Darby this year. But Darby’s performance is far more surprising and is also far more likely to dip as the season wears on. Gilmore will probably shut down whomever he guards; Darby remains somewhat inexperienced. For this reason, Darby is a bigger key to this game.
Bills fans may want to see Darby spend a bit more time on Hurns than Robinson, as the latter has a solid 25 pounds on Darby. And as I’ve pointed out all season, the success of Buffalo’s secondary reflects the success of its run defense, as teams are forced to rely on passing attacks more than they might prefer. But Darby thus far appears well-equipped for an NFL career and is certainly capable of locking up either receiver when he plays with discipline and physicality.
.jpg?w=256 "Colts Jaguars Football")
X-Factor
4 of 5
First, an obligatory note about penalties. I have written every week about Buffalo’s struggle for lawfulness, and last week, it was hardly different. The Bills were flagged eight times for 93 yards. That’s better than we saw in Weeks 1, 2, and 4, but the penalties last week came at particularly bad times and cost the Bills points.
Andy Dalton, as with Tom Brady and Andrew Luck, does not need free yards. And all three got plenty of gratuitous help from Buffalo. Frankly, the Bills could hand Jacksonville 100 free penalty yards and probably still win the game, because Buffalo’s defense is good and Jacksonville’s defense is bad. But this pattern remains worth paying attention to.
Second, the real X-factor this week is Chris Hogan. Some were skeptical when I highlighted him last week, given his relative anonymity on the stat sheet. And those skeptics were borne out when Hogan finished with just two catches and zero scores.
But this week, Hogan figures to be even more important, as it’s quite possible that neither Harvin nor Watkins will play. That would leave Hogan and Robert Woods as the only receivers, along with tight end Charles Clay.
Luckily, Jacksonville’s pass defense ranges from “below average” to “downright terrible.” The Jags rank 21st in the NFL in passing yards per game allowed. Opposing quarterbacks are completing almost 68 percent of their passes. The Jaguars are the only team in the league with just one interception. They give up 7.7 yards per pass attempt, good for 23rd in the league.
Regardless of Buffalo’s quarterback, Hogan should see somewhere between five and seven targets. Depending on his early performance, he could see more. Taylor and Manuel are running out of people to throw and hand off the ball to. Hogan has an opportunity to show what he can do.
Prediction
5 of 5
Buffalo is due for an offensive explosion. The Bills have scored 14 or fewer points in four of their six games this year, and their highest output of the year—32 points against New England—was mostly the result of a frantic, last-ditch, unsuccessful comeback attempt.
The Bills have struggled with injuries, penalties and inconsistency. They have struggled with poor coaching, poor pass rushing and poor execution. Their quarterbacks—both of them—are young and inexperienced, while their star running back has yet to find his 2014 form.
But this Buffalo squad remains a good team. The talent is there, in every phase of the game. As coach Ryan acutely pointed out on Wednesday, the Bills have lost to two undefeated teams (Patriots and Bengals) and one division leader (Colts). That is hardly laughable, and there should be no doubt that Buffalo remains among the league’s toughest teams to beat.
But the flip side of Ryan’s observation is that his team plays the Dolphins, Jets and Patriots over the next month. So while it’s true Buffalo has only lost to good competition, it’s equally true the Bills have to beat good competition to end their lengthy playoff drought.
Either way, the Bills will stomp all over Jacksonville on Sunday. It may be a breakout party for LeSean McCoy as well.
Prediction: Buffalo 35, Jacksonville 21
.jpg?w=480 "Colts Jaguars Football")
.png?w=480)
