Is Florida Still a Lock to Win SEC East?

It took the Mad Hatter himself to set Florida's dream season back ever so slightly. It took a kicker, whose bio lists him at 170 pounds—and that's probably with his pads—to hand the Gators their first loss of the year. 

In other words, LSU was LSU, Les Miles was Les Miles and a fake field goal was the difference in the Tigers' 35-28 win over Florida. 

That doesn't mean, though, that Florida's magical season has come to a grinding halt. It doesn't mean that Jim McElwain's team will lose the rest of its games or somehow come back down to reality. LSU needed to reach into its bag of tricks to beat the Gators, who were playing their second-string quarterback, Treon Harris.

That's not a criticism, by the way. LSU could very well be on its way to a playoff appearance, and sometimes, you have to pull out some trickery along the way.

Before that, Florida had overcome two double-digit deficits in one of the toughest environments in college football. The defense slowed LSU running back Leonard Fournette as much as any team possibly could. The Heisman front-runner rushed for 180 yards and two touchdowns but averaged 5.81 yards per carry. For context, that was his second-lowest total of the year. 

If anything, Saturday's loss was the most telling game about Florida under McElwain. 

Now, it's time for McElwain to refocus. The Gators' path to winning the SEC East, which would have been nearly unthinkable six weeks ago, is still clear. Is Florida a lock to win the East? If this season has proven anything, nothing is a lock, not even handling a punt, but the hurdles are few.

As McElwain said after the LSU game, the Gators are still in control of their own divisional destiny: 

The East title race could very well come down to the Halloween game against Georgia. Both teams have a bye before meeting in Jacksonville, Florida, for the annual rivalry. Without Nick Chubb, however, Georgia's offense has taken a noticeable step back. In its first game without Chubb, who has a season-ending knee injury, the Bulldogs rushed for 2.7 yards per carry in a 9-6 win over Missouri. 

It might not be realistic to think that Georgia's running game will be stuffed forever, but there are bigger-picture concerns, as B/R colleague Barrett Sallee noted: 

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Georgia currently ranks 12th in the SEC in red-zone scoring percentage (80.77 percent), 10th in red-zone touchdown percentage (50 percent) and 12th in third-down conversion percentage (33.33 percent).

...

[Quarterback Greyson] Lambert is currently 10th in the SEC in passing yards per game (182.3) and tied for ninth with six passing plays of 30 or more yards with Florida's Treon Harris and South Carolina's Perry Orth—both of whom started the season as backups and have been thrust into action due to starters being out of the lineup.

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Georgia's offense hasn't taken off under first-year offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer. Florida's offense, meanwhile, has improved dramatically under McElwain and offensive coordinator Doug Nussmeier. Inserting Harris back into the starting lineup—Will Grier will miss the year for a positive PED test—leaves some question marks, but there's no doubt that this team is getting coached up. One of the best examples of this is along the offensive line, a dangerously thin and inexperienced group: 

Keep in mind, too, the strength of this Florida team still resides on defense. So long as Harris can keep the offense moving, the drop-off from Grier shouldn't be that dramatic. 

If the Gators can get past Georgia, their path to Atlanta becomes even clearer. All that would remain are games against Vanderbilt and a road trip to South Carolina. However, the Commodores can be tricky because of their defense, and you never know if or how a coaching change can invigorate a team like the Gamecocks. 

The point being, there are some potential challenges to consider, but Florida should be in a position to get past all of them. Any one of three, or even four, teams could realistically still win the East mathematically speaking, but Florida has shown the most and has the best remaining path. 

Ben Kercheval is a lead writer for college football. All quotes cited unless obtained firsthand. All stats courtesy of cfbstats.com.