Chiefs vs. Vikings: What's the Game Plan for Minnesota?
The Minnesota Vikings are set to return to TCF Bank Stadium coming off a Week 5 bye to host a less-than-whole Kansas City Chiefs team.
Last week against the Chicago Bears, the Chiefs lost star running back Jamaal Charles for the season with an ACL injury. Kansas City will also be without nose tackle Dontari Poe and potentially pass-rusher Tamba Hali as well, two key components to what has been a strong defense over the past few seasons. B.J. Kissel of Chiefs.com has the report:
"#Chiefs DL Dontari Poe & LB Josh Mauga are OUT for Sunday's game vs. #Vikings. LB Tamba Hali is questionable.
— BJ Kissel (@ChiefsReporter) October 16, 2015"
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Without Charles on offense and, at the very least, Poe on defense, this Chiefs team appears considerably less formidable on paper. Writing Kansas City off as an inferior team due to its key injuries would be a mistake—one that saw Minnesota get run out of the stadium during Week 1 against the San Francisco 49ers—but this should be a winnable matchup for the Vikings on Sunday.
Offensive Game Plan
The offensive game plan for the Vikings this week is simple: Keep Teddy Bridgewater upright and hand the ball off to Adrian Peterson. This has been the plan of attack since Week 1—though it hasn't always been executed very well—and it will be emphasized greatly this week.
During Week 4 against the Denver Broncos, the Vikings allowed Bridgewater to be sacked seven times, which proved to be their downfall. Kansas City's pass rush is not so much different from Denver's either—assuming Hali plays—as the Chiefs bring heavy pressure from both sides with excellent pass-rushing linebackers.
Minnesota's No. 1 concern has to be slowing down linebacker Justin Houston, who has been a definitive force for Kansas City since entering the league in 2011. Houston has recorded 51.5 sacks throughout his career, including a ridiculous 22 in 2015.
According to Pro Football Focus, Houston ranks second only to Von Miller this season with 26 quarterback pressures. More importantly, he is capable of rushing from both sides of the field but has taken 74.8 percent of his snaps from the left side—the side that right tackle T.J. Clemmings is in charge of blocking.
It easy to say that the Vikings need to add extra help on the right side of their offensive line to help Clemmings slow down Houston, but it really is not that simple. Doing so requires special formations and forces Norv Turner to utilize potential offensive weapons as blockers.
Peterson has shown throughout his career that he is a liability as a blocker, and this theory is reinforced by his 84.6 pass-blocking efficiency, which ranks No. 14 of 16 qualifying running backs in the NFL, per Pro Football Focus.
However, there is another way Peterson can help slow down Houston—running the ball efficiently. The 2012 NFL MVP may be irrelevant at blocking, but he certainly knows how to run the football and fight for extra yards.
Without Poe in the middle of the Chiefs defensive line to eat up blockers, Brandon Fusco, Joe Berger and Mike Harris should be able to open enough holes for Peterson to run through. He has shown over the past couple of weeks that he is still has plenty left in the tank, and the Vikings need to run up some mileage on his odometer this week.
The Chiefs pass defense has been substandard as well, allowing an average of 7.6 yards per play this season, which ranks No. 23 in the NFL. However, this should be considered a luxury—not an angle of attack.
Safeties Eric Berry and former Viking Husain Abdullah have played well for the Chiefs this season, and there should be no reason to test them with forced throws. Rookie cornerback Marcus Peters—who has struggled at times—has proved to be a lethal ball hawk already during his short time in the NFL, giving Kansas City just another weapon on defense to limit Bridgewater and the passing attack offense.
This week simply comes down to minimizing mistakes, as the Vikings have considerably more talent on both sides of the ball with the Chiefs being without a number of key weapons. The best way to minimize these mistakes is with ball security and keeping the ball moving up the field and down the field—and Peterson is certainly capable of taking care of this.
Defensive Game Plan
The defensive game plan against the Chiefs is not quite as simple, but it still can be summarized fairly easily. Without Charles in the backfield, Kansas City is not nearly as dynamic from an offensive perspective.
Per usual, Mike Zimmer's defensive game plan begins with shutting down the run. In relief of Charles, Kansas City will trot out a pair of far less dangerous running backs to share the workload in Knile Davis and Charcandrick West.
West is a bit of an unknown given that he has taken just 12 carries in his career, but Davis has created a large enough sample size over his career to have a foundation of what to expect. The former Arkansas running back is averaging a subpar 3.4 yards per carry throughout his career, which leads to the assumption that Minnesota's emerging defense should have little issue slowing him down.
As a result, the Vikings will be tasked with slowing down quarterback Alex Smith, which is a bit of an oxymoron. Smith, for all his talent, tends to slow himself down by emphasizing checkdown and underneath routes—even on 3rd-and-long.
Football Outsiders statistical guru Scott Kacsmar recently created a statistic known as Air Less Expected—or ALEX—that was made in the name of Smith, both literally and figuratively:
"I really did create the ultimate Alex Smith stat, now known as ALEX for how far QB is throwing on 3rd down vs. sticks pic.twitter.com/xqOsWD5vmb
— Scott Kacsmar (@FO_ScottKacsmar) September 24, 2015"
The simple way of explaining this is that Smith never throws the ball down the field on third down. He instead elects to throw screen passes and quick routes that force his receivers to reach the first down, as opposed to throwing the ball down the field past the sticks himself.
These types of numbers bode well for the Vikings defense, as both Anthony Barr and Harrison Smith have been unbelievable at blowing up screens. Moreover, it seems fair to assume that West isn't nearly as dynamic of a runner as Charles is, which should make these screens and short pass attempts much easier to stop.
While plenty more goes into stopping the Chiefs offense, the simplified version of it is this: Stop the run on early downs and force Smith into 3rd-and-long situations. If the Vikings can do this and Smith continues to choose the short route on third down, Minnesota should have little issue keeping the Charles-less Chiefs from putting up too many points.
Key Players
Adrian Peterson, Running Back, Minnesota
Honestly, Peterson is a key player every week for the Vikings. Even if his speed is no longer his greatest weapon, he is still dynamic in every sense of the word. His vision and patience are generational-caliber, and he should have little issue running all over a decimated Kansas City defense.
Alex Smith, Quarterback, Kansas City
In an earlier article this week, I discussed just how important Charles is to the Chiefs offense. He has touched the ball on 34 percent of the Kansas City's offensive plays this season, according to Pro Football Focus.
It does not matter how great an organization is or how much depth is on the roster, replacing a player who contributes that high of a percentage to an offense is simply ridiculous. Charles has been everything to the Chiefs in recent years, which has covered up the inadequacies of Smith.
Smith will need to prove that he is more than just the guy who gets the ball to Charles this week, and if he can't, the Chiefs are going to lose—it's as simple as that.
Linval Joseph, Defensive Tackle, Minnesota
Barr and Smith have been outstanding for the Vikings this season, but Linval Joseph deserves plenty of praise for what he has accomplished. According to Pro Football Focus, he ranks No. 11 of 45 qualifying defensive tackles in stop percentage at 9.4. A "stop" is any play that constitutes a loss for the opposing offense, and Joseph has recorded six on 64 possible tries.
He has been a lethal run defender this year, and Minnesota needs him to continue this success against a team that will be attempting to run the ball for the first time without its workhorse running back.
Justin Houston, Linebacker, Kansas City
The Chiefs could be playing entirely reserve players and if Justin Houston were still out there, they would remain a threat on defense. Houston has the ability to completely take over from a pass-rushing perspective, and the Vikings have a significant weakness at right tackle in the rookie T.J. Clemmings.
If Minnesota cannot find a way to slow down Houston—possibly by utilizing outstanding blocking tight end Rhett Ellison—Bridgewater could find himself on his back four-plus times again this week.
Prediction: Vikings 27, Chiefs 13
When the Chiefs are at full strength, they can be a force to be reckoned with. The issue here is that Kansas City is not at full strength and is missing the most important player on the roster.
Charles is not only one of the league's best players, but he is far and away the most important player on Kansas City. The Chiefs are built around running the ball well efficiently with Charles—whose 5.5 yards-per-carry average is the highest in NFL history—and playing strong defense.
Kansas City may still put together a strong defensive showing, but its offense will struggle all day against a borderline elite Mike Zimmer defense. Minnesota should also be able to exploit the fact that Poe will not be lining up opposite of Berger this week, which should allow Peterson to run wild.
The Vikings need a big, blowout victory this week to establish themselves as a playoff-caliber team—and they are going to get it. Don't expect Bridgewater's passing numbers to be off the charts, but he will do more than enough, and Peterson may cross the century mark by halftime against a weakened Chiefs defense.
Minnesota wins at home to move to 3-2 on the season, topping Kansas City by two scores and showing the NFL that this team is ready to contend right now.
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