LSU, Alabama All but Control Their Playoff Destinies as Giant Showdown Looms

University of Alabama head coach Nick Saban smiled during his postgame press conference Saturday.

Perhaps he too was woozy from the heat, but he did it nonetheless following his team’s 41-23 victory over Texas A&M on Saturday.

"You have to hand it to this team,” he said. “This is the second team ranked in the Top 10 that we've beaten on the road in some really tough places to play. I think you have to respect the competitive character of this team. My hat’s off to them."

During a season that Crimson Tide fans seem to be revisiting their past with each game—including the loss to Ole Miss, reliving the Blackout at Georgia and then another grind-it-out win against Arkansas—it would be only fitting if the Southeastern Conference’s Western Division came down to another showdown against LSU.

That’s the way it’s beginning to look, even though there are still four strong division contenders.

First, consider each team’s schedule: 

• LSU (6-0, 4-0 SEC): Western Kentucky, at Alabama, Arkansas, at Ole Miss, Texas A&M.
• Alabama (5-1, 3-1): Tennessee, LSU, at Mississippi State, Charleston Southern, at Auburn.
• Texas A&M (5-1, 3-1): at Ole Miss, South Carolina, Auburn, Western Carolina, at Vanderbilt, at LSU.
• Ole Miss (5-2, 2-1): Texas A&M, at Auburn, Arkansas, LSU, Mississippi State.

Ole Miss has the head-to-head tiebreaker over Alabama, but the Rebels appeared to have started their late-season fade early this year. Injury issues and the inability to run have made them a longshot especially since they have five SEC games yet to play, and having already lost to Florida and Memphis one has to wonder how many more defeats may be looming.

Gerald Herbert/Associated Press

That begins with next week’s showdown against Texas A&M, which has to be considered an elimination game. It’ll be interesting to see how both teams react to coming off a loss.

“Here is where the maturity and leadership aspect comes into play,” Texas A&M coach Kevin Sumlin said during his postgame press conference.

“We still have all our goals ahead of us. We got beat today, but we are tied with them in the SEC standings and we head on the road next week. What we have to do as a team is acknowledge what happened tonight, be truthful with where we our as a team and what we can get fixed, lean on each other, put this one away and move on with the rest of the season."

But Texas A&M looked pretty beat up following the Alabama game after using its bye beforehand. It’s the only one of the four that won’t have a week off from here on out.

"The way I look at it, if we win the rest of our games we go to the SEC title (game),” Texas A&M defensive lineman Julien Obioha said. “We have to win out, and the only way we can do that is by beating Ole Miss next week. We can't do anything about the Alabama game anymore so we're on to Ole Miss."

But even if Texas A&M does win out it, can’t advance to the SEC Championship Game unless Alabama stumbles again. 

Here’s a sobering thought for Aggies fans, imagine what the score might have been Saturday if center Ryan Kelly hadn’t left the game or Alabama didn’t have its special teams issues.

With its 43-37 win in Week 3, Ole Miss hit the Crimson Tide at the right time, before it had a quarterback established and benefited from five turnovers. It needed every one of them to win.

Eric Gay/Associated Press

"I feel like we're a different team from week to week,” defensive end Jonathan Allen said. “You don't win the game on Saturdays; you win the game on Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday, which are preparation. I feel like we've improved, but we're definitely not satisfied or happy with anything we've done up to this point."

Like LSU, which beat Florida with a fake field goal (speaking of familiar), Alabama found a different way to win this week. Its young secondary, with three freshmen in the dime package, returned three interceptions for touchdowns at A&M, Jake Coker is proving to be tougher than most linebackers and running back Derrick Henry had a career game.

Yet, neither Alabama, nor LSU, is hitting on all cylinders yet. Neither has probably played its best game yet.

"Don't doubt 'Bama, man," sophomore left tackle Cam Robinson told John Talty of Al.com.

“Honestly, we've done so well in the past that if we lose one game everybody says, 'Oh something's wrong; is the dynasty over?' No, we just lost a game. We will come out next week, move forward and continue to play Alabama football."

Being undefeated, LSU clearly has the inside lane, while Florida still has it in the East despite the 35-28 loss in Baton Rouge. But Alabama also essentially controls its destiny, which may have been why Saban was smiling because his team does have the potential to run the table.

Alabama also has home-field advantage against LSU on Nov. 7 at Bryant-Denny Stadium, which in this case could be huge, and both teams might be ranked in the top five by then if Alabama gets by rival Tennessee next week.

That’ll lead to two weeks of mind-numbing hype: Leonard Fournette vs. Henry; Saban again facing his former team, the 2011 national championship chase all over again.

So go ahead and circle the date on the calendar because it might determine the SEC West champion, and it could be viewed as a quasi play-in game for what’s now called the playoffs—and we’ve all seen that before out of that matchup.

Quotes were obtained firsthand unless otherwise noted.

Christopher Walsh is a lead SEC college football writer. Follow Christopher on Twitter @WritingWalsh.