Everything You Need to Know About the Detroit Pistons' 2015-16 NBA Season
The Detroit Pistons have chased relevance for years, failing to post a winning record since their streak of six consecutive Eastern Conference Finals berths was snapped in 2009.
But the good news is they're no longer aimlessly wandering through the NBA ranks of mediocrity. They have a pair of potential cornerstone prospects in Andre Drummond (who's surely getting a max deal soon) and Reggie Jackson (who scored an $80 million pact over the summer). They also have a great basketball mind in Stan Van Gundy, whose executive work has made the coaching part of his duties easier.
After enduring a 32-50 season, the president-coach spent the past few months building a roster to his liking. His efforts might not produce any playoff rewards just yet, but the Pistons have a plan for moving forward and a collection of young talent to help them eventually get there.
Key Additions/Subtractions
- Additions: Stanley Johnson (draft), Ersan Ilyasova (trade), Marcus Morris (trade), Aron Baynes (free agent), Steve Blake (trade), Reggie Bullock (trade), Danny Granger (trade), Darrun Hilliard (draft), Adonis Thomas (free agent)
- Subtractions: Greg Monroe (free agent), Caron Butler (trade), Tayshaun Prince (free agent), Shawne Williams (trade), Quincy Miller (trade), John Lucas III (free agent)
On paper, this looks like the kind of roster Van Gundy prefers. Both of the forward spots feature fresh faces, all of whom can spread the floor with perimeter shots—something five-year starter Greg Monroe never offered.
There are three intriguing candidates for the two starting gigs: veterans Ersan Ilyasova and Marcus Morris, plus rookie Stanley Johnson. Ilyasova is the most accomplished shooter, converting 39.7 percent of his long-range looks over the past four seasons. Morris boasts a career 36.3 percent success rate from distance, though he's held a reserve role for 198 of his 257 games.
Johnson is the wild card, but one that Van Gundy could be comfortable playing out of the gate. Through five preseason games, the No. 8 pick is averaging 15.2 points, 4.8 rebounds and 2.6 assists in 30.0 minutes. Like any rookie, the 19-year-old needs plenty of polish. But he might already have the physical tools (6'7", 245-pound frame) and mental makeup needed to survive on this stage.
"He's just a really mature guy," Van Gundy said, according to Pistons.com's Keith Langlois. "There's nothing rookie about him in the way he approaches it. ... He looks like he's been doing this for three or four years."
Storylines to Watch
Whether Drummond inks a new deal in the coming weeks or waits until next summer, he'll soon collect a max-level salary. The Pistons need their franchise player to consistently produce at a level befitting of that pay rate.
The 22-year-old is already an elite rebounder, finishing both of the past two seasons with the second-most boards. But his offense has obvious room to grow. He averaged a career-best 13.8 points last season, but also saw his field-goal percentage drop more than 10 points (51.4 from 62.3). And his defense isn't as effective as it could be with the physical tools he possesses.
"Where we need him to really take a step this year is at the defensive end of the floor," Van Gundy said, per Vince Ellis of the Detroit Free Press. "... If he does that, if he brings great energy and intensity on a nightly basis, he's one of the rare guys in this league that can dominate the game regardless of what happens on the offensive end of the floor."
For all the external activity, Detroit's progress will likely be tied to internal development. Drummond's is a massive part of that, but Jackson's is almost just as big.
His raw production after landing with the Pistons at last season's trade deadline was eye-popping: 17.6 points, 9.2 assists and 4.7 rebounds in 32.2 minutes. Detroit also fared 12.1 points better per 100 possessions when he played. The Pistons need Jackson to dominate so they can get Drummond a top-tier running mate and figure out what to do with Brandon Jennings once he's recovered from his ruptured Achilles.
X-Factor: Ersan Ilyasova
If Ilyasova is at his best, he's precisely the type of perimeter threat this offense needs to function. He can be a quantity-plus-quality gunner from downtown, and his presence should help the Pistons play with more speed and better flow.
But it all depends which Ilyasova the Pistons get. The 28-year-old has been maddeningly inconsistent over his career. In the past five seasons alone, he's graded out as both an elite sniper and an erratic shot-chucker, a solid starter and an unreliable reserve.
The good Ilyasova would be a game-changer for Detroit. He could unclog the congestion underneath, help out on the boards and keep the ball moving. But if his shot goes awry, his value will diminish and this offense will struggle to breathe.
Making the Leap: Kentavious Caldwell-Pope
Now entering his third NBA season, it's time for Kentavious Caldwell-Pope's reality to start matching his potential. If he's going to be a lights-out shooter, he can't keep lugging around a career 33.7 three-point percentage. If he's going to be a plus-defender, he can't allow his matchup to shoot above their average level as they did last season (by 2.5 percentage points).
He has far more talent than his career 10.5 player efficiency rating would suggest. Coming out of Georgia in 2013, scouts raved about his length, athleticism and shooting stroke. Bleacher Report's Jonathan Wasserman wrote that Caldwell-Pope had "ideal physical tools" for his position and "deep, NBA range" as a shooter, along with "active feet and lightning-quick hands" at the defensive end.
This needs to be the time where Caldwell-Pope brings it all together. He'll have to clean up his shot selection, cutting down on his long twos and increasing his work around the rim. He has to consistently give the right effort defensively, then figure out how to solve his road woes (.350/.280 shooting compared to .445/.394 at The Palace last season).
Playing in a better offense, pushed by increased competition and strengthened by a pair of developmental seasons, the stage is set for Caldwell-Pope's emergence.
Best-Case Scenario
This roster reads like a work in progress, as some of its young parts aren't ready for the bright lights and a few of the vets are playing out their post-prime careers. In other words, everything could break right and this club still wouldn't push deep into the postseason.
But it could easily be a playoff threat if Drummond scores an All-Star appearance, Jackson joins him there and Johnson locks up the Rookie of the Year award. Add an up year from Ilyasova and the best ever produced by Morris and Caldwell-Pope, and the Pistons could even scare their first-round opponent.
Worst-Case Scenario
The Pistons clearly don't have an offensive star, as Drummond and Jackson both torpedo their efficiency by trying to fill that role. Van Gundy plays musical chairs with the 2 through 4 spots in his starting lineup, and the season closes before he finds a sure thing at any of the positions.
Johnson's shot disappears, and he dominates the ball while unsuccessfully trying to get it back. Morris and Ilyasova show why they were available at discount prices. Jennings struggles fitting in, to the point that Detroit can't even work out a suitable trade for him.
The Pistons extend their playoff drought to seven seasons, but they're too good to approach the bottom of the standings.
Predictions
This looks like a Van Gundy team, and that's important for a few different reasons. For starters, the extra spacing will be a major boost to this organization's two cornerstones: Drummond and Jackson. It's also a formula Van Gundy has been successful with before, so he might find ways to get his supporting cast to play above its collective ability level.
Drummond should take a significant step this season. If he's not playing in the All-Star Game, that would be a major disappointment. And Johnson should cement himself near (or at) the front of the Rookie of the Year race throughout the campaign. His combination of skills, physical gifts and demeanor should all give him a chance to make a smooth transition.
The Pistons are making progress—but the project is far from finished. It's light on elite talent, even if Johnson storms out of the gate. Their best players are all young, and two of them play the same position (Jackson and Jennings).
The Eastern Conference is generous enough that the Pistons' playoff hopes should be alive well into the spring. But barring several substantial leaps in-house or costly injuries to their competitors, this group doesn't look ready to snag a postseason spot just yet.
Final Record: 37-45
Division Standing: Fifth in Central
Playoff Berth: No
Unless otherwise noted, statistics used courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com and NBA.com.
