Notre Dame Football: Exploring Strength of Schedule and Its Importance
SOUTH BEND, Ind. — After its devastating two-point loss to Clemson in Death Valley at the beginning of the month, Notre Dame football knows it's dealing with a small margin for error.
“You can’t lose another game,” Irish head coach Brian Kelly said of his message to his captains following Notre Dame’s lone loss. “You’re on the clock now. Every single weekend you’re playing elimination football.”
To stick on the path toward a potential College Football Playoff berth, indeed, Notre Dame must win each of its final six regular-season games, beginning with Saturday’s prime-time rivalry game against a tumultuous USC program. Six wins in six attempts are obviously far from given, and a week-to-week mentality is all the Irish can invoke.
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They might need help, too. So at the halfway point of Notre Dame’s schedule, given USC’s loss at home to Washington on Thursday and with the initial College Football Playoff rankings less than three weeks away, let’s analyze Notre Dame’s strength of schedule.
| Team | Record | Remaining Ranked Opponents | Remaining Opponents' Win Percentage |
| 1. Ohio State | 6-0 | 2 | 26-9 (.743) |
| 2. Baylor | 5-0 | 3 | 26-12 (.684) |
| 3. TCU | 6-0 | 3 | 20-11 (.645) |
| 4. Utah | 5-0 | 1 | 23-15 (.605) |
| 5. Clemson | 5-0 | 1 | 23-16 (.590) |
| 6. LSU | 5-0 | 4 | 28-7 (.800) |
| 7. Michigan State | 6-0 | 2 | 24-12 (.667) |
| 8. Florida | 6-0 | 2 | 19-13 (.594) |
| 9. Texas A&M | 5-0 | 3 | 25-13 (.658) |
| 10. Alabama | 5-1 | 2 | 24-8 (.750) |
| 11. Florida State | 5-0 | 2 | 26-12 (.684) |
| 12. Michigan | 5-1 | 2 | 27-8 (.771) |
| 13. Ole Miss | 5-1 | 2 | 24-8 (.750) |
| 14. Notre Dame | 5-1 | 1 | 22-10 (.688) |
| 15. Stanford | 4-1 | 3 | 26-13 (.667) |
| 16. Oklahoma State | 6-0 | 3 | 21-11 (.656) |
| 17. Iowa | 6-0 | 1 | 18-18 (.500) |
| 18. UCLA | 4-1 | 3 | 25-12 (.676) |
| 19. Oklahoma | 4-1 | 3 | 26-12 (.684) |
| 20. Northwestern | 5-1 | 1 | 22-14 (.611) |
| 21. Boise State | 5-1 | 0 | 14-20 (.412) |
| 22. Toledo | 5-0 | 0 | 13-21 (.382) |
| 23. Cal | 5-1 | 2 | 20-12 (.625) |
| 24. Houston | 5-0 | 0 | 19-18 (.514) |
| 25. Duke | 5-1 | 0 | 18-14 (.563) |
Through six games, Notre Dame has defeated Texas, Virginia, Georgia Tech, UMass and Navy and lost to Clemson. Considering that work to be done and looking forward, the Irish only face one more opponent (Stanford) currently ranked in the AP Top 25.
Eleven of the 13 teams currently ranked ahead of Notre Dame square off with multiple ranked opponents down the stretch. The other two, Utah and Clemson, each have one ranked opponent remaining. Both the Utes and Tigers, though, are undefeated at 5-0.
Still, rankings change and perceptions fluctuate. Notre Dame’s win over then-No. 14 Georgia Tech in Week 3 has lost significant luster following three more losses for the Yellow Jackets. Conversely, the season-opening dismantling of Texas is somewhat more legitimized by the Longhorns’ victory over Oklahoma last weekend and their September losses to No. 23 Cal and No. 16 Oklahoma State by a combined four points.
Another angle is to consider the combined winning percentages of the opponents left on the docket.
No. 6 LSU, for example, must go through Florida (6-0), Western Kentucky (5-1), Alabama (5-1), Arkansas (2-4), Ole Miss (5-1) and Texas A&M (5-0). Those opponents boast a combined .800 winning percentage—the highest for any AP Top 25 team. No. 22 Toledo, on the other hand, faces a pair of one-win teams and a pair of two-win teams in its final seven regular-season tilts.
The Irish face four teams currently above .500—USC, Temple, Pittsburgh and Stanford—in their second half of the season. Only five ranked teams (Ohio State, LSU, Alabama, Michigan and Ole Miss) have higher combined winning percentages for their remaining opponents than Notre Dame’s mark of .688.
Sure, records and winning percentages can’t be taken as individually sufficient pieces of evidence. A win over 4-1 Pitt likely isn’t equal to a win over 4-1 Stanford, UCLA or Oklahoma in the eyes of the selection committee, just as a win for Alabama over 4-1 Charleston Southern clearly doesn’t equate.
As it relates to the Irish, Kelly was asked Sunday if he was disappointed to see the Trojans fall, 17-12, to Washington on Thursday.
“Certainly, if they’re ranked 10th in the country, then that’s going to affect us a little bit differently than them not being ranked,” Kelly said. “But I still think, when you talk about beating USC, I think it still carries a lot of weight because people know the talent that they have on that football team.”
Of course, the strength of schedule discussion matters little to Notre Dame if it doesn’t run the table. The first of the six remaining hurdles comes Saturday.
“I think everybody knows the kind of talent USC has,” Kelly said. “And regardless of what happened against Washington, we know in this rivalry game what kind of performance that they’re going to have against us.”
All quotes were obtained firsthand unless otherwise noted.
Mike Monaco is the lead Notre Dame writer for Bleacher Report. Follow @MikeMonaco_ on Twitter.
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