NBA Draft 2016: Top 5 Small Forward Prospects Heading into CBB Season
The small forward group projected to declare for the 2016 NBA draft is powered by three exceptional freshmen. It's not crazy to think that each of them will wind up being selected in June's top five.
One just may be the No. 1 overall favorite heading into the season.
And there are dozens of NBA teams that could be looking to make upgrades on the wing. The Philadelphia 76ers, Los Angeles Lakers, Portland Trail Blazers and New Orleans Pelicans are a chief among those who may target a need with one of the following small forwards.
5. Justin Jackson, North Carolina, Sophomore
Sometimes, it takes a while to settle in and find a rhythm. Jackson was having an underwhelming freshman year until the final month of the season.
He shot 52.1 percent over last 12 games after hitting 45.2 percent of his attempts over his first 26. A terrific March naturally seemed like a sign of what's to come in 2015-16. Jackson now looks poised to emerge as a breakout first-round candidate.
| Birthday | Height | Weight (lbs) | Wingspan |
| March 28, 1995 | 6'8.5" | 200 | 6'10" |
He has textbook size for the position, though he isn't an explosive athlete or physical presence. He's still fluid, mobile and agile, as well as a major threat in transition (1.31 points per play, per DraftExpress' Mike Schmitz). Jackson's body control in the open floor is noticeably effective—the game appears to slow down for him, even during high-speed breaks.
On the other hand, he activates ball skills, instincts and movement to generate offense in the half court.
Off-Ball Scoring
Scouts are sure to value Jackson's ability to score without needing isolation touches or dribbles. He excels at positioning himself for opportunities off cuts, flashes and screens.
He'll have to improve his consistency, but Jackson has three-point range on his spot-up jumper, which looks natural coming out of his hands.
He's also proficient with his floater—Jackson has a knack for making one-handed touch shots off one foot on the move.
He ultimately projects as more of a complementary shot-maker and finisher—a forward who can catch and convert, whether he's behind the arc, in the mid-range or at the rim.
Passing, Basketball IQ
Jackson has a good feel for the game and sense of which buttons to press. He averaged 3.5 assists per 40 minutes, and though it doesn't quite indicate playmaking prowess, he makes a lot of simple, underappreciated passes that lead to quality looks.
NBA Draft Outlook
Jackson, who should see a bigger usage rate than last year's 20.2 percent, per Sports-Reference.com, will need to make strides in 2015-16 if he plans on rising up boards. But with a little more confidence heading into season No. 2, as well as the likelihood his body and shooting accuracy have improved, there is reason to be optimistic. A mid-to-late first-round draft range seems like a safe preseason bet.
Jackson's NBA Comparison: Otto Porter
4. Taurean Prince, Baylor, Senior
Gradual improvement has helped Prince find the NBA radar. He's taken a step every year at Baylor. And assuming he continues trending in the right direction, there is a good chance he'll earn first-round consideration next June.
He even used the summer to build his image with appearances at the LeBron James Nike Skills Academy and Pan American Games (10.8 points, 4.4 rebounds in 18.5 minutes).
| Birthday | Height | Weight (lbs) | Wingspan |
| August 22, 1994 | 6'8" | 220 | 6'11.5" |
Prince looks the part of an NBA wing with 6'8", 220-pound size and a near 7'0" wingspan. He doesn't jump out of the gym, but he can still get up above the rim and blow by with a slash.
The team that drafts Prince shouldn't have to worry about him fitting in from a physical perspective.
Toughness, motor and an efficient all-around attack only enhance his reputation as a potential future NBA role player.
Role Player Potential, Opportunistic Scoring
There is a niche in the NBA for players with Prince's particular tools and skill set.
His sales pitch starts with shooting touch that's come a long way since 2012. Prince hit 60 threes at a 39.5 percent clip last year after making 17 triples as a freshman and sophomore combined.
He has developed into a dangerous spot-up threat and a shot-maker that can connect under pressure (1.34 points per play when guarded, per DraftExpress' Mike Schmitz).
Inside the arc, he takes good shots within the flow of the offense, though his one-on-one shot creativity could stand to improve. Prince does a nice job capitalizing opportunistically as a shooter, line driver and finisher off cuts and flashes.
He's also shown promise inside with soft touch on one-handers around the key. Depending on where he winds up, Brown may even be able to play some minutes as a small-ball 4.
Still, he doesn't quite project as a go-to option at the next level.
Defensive Potential
Staying engaged will be a priority in 2015-16, but Prince's foot speed, length and strength drive defensive versatility and potential.
He's tough to beat around the arc in isolation and closeout situations. And we've seen him stick with both interior and perimeter players, which also makes Prince an asset in pick-and-roll coverage.
He racked up 49 steals and 29 blocks in 33 games as well. By the end of his career at Baylor, he'll have done enough to earn the coveted two-way label.
NBA Draft Outlook
Despite the lack of love that drafts typically show seniors, Prince just turned 21 years old in August.
A three-and-D identity plays to his high basement floor, while the room for growth that's there at both ends highlights upside left to chase.
He's a strong early bet for the 2016 first round and a candidate to rise up boards with more touches coming his way.
Green's NBA Comparison: Tony Snell
3. Jaylen Brown, California, Freshman
A consensus top-five recruit (ESPN, Rivals, 247Sports) and stable name atop the ranks, Brown's NBA potential has been visible for years. Everything about him yells out pro, from his physical profile and skills to his overall demeanor.
At 6'7", 222 pounds, he aces the eye test for an NBA wing, mixing power with quickness, agility and fearlessness.
| Birthday | Height | Weight (lbs) | Wingspan |
| October 24, 1996 | 6'6.5" | 7'0.5" | 7'0.5" |
An exceptional athlete, Brown is practically automatic in transition, where he frequently creates highlights and posters. He also has a frame built for contact, which he absorbs and dishes out during drives and finishes.
Given his strength and burst, it's no secret Brown's bread-and-butter revolves around his attack game. But he's shown glimpses—including during California's recent summer trip to Australia—of a complete scoring repertoire.
Scoring
He's at his best driving and slashing to the rack. Brown has a tight enough handle to shake and bake with hesitations, crossovers and spin moves. Chances are he'll be able to get to the line at a high rate for California.
But he's also flashed a developing in-between game consisting of floaters, runners and pull-ups. They're not always high-percentage looks—he'll have to work on creating easier ones—but in terms of capability, Brown can make shots in a variety of ways.
Next year, we'll likely be talking about his shot selection and shooting stroke as areas he'll need to work on most. With regard to his jumper, there's a bit too much arms and not enough knee bending.
Still, he can knock them down in that 15-23-foot range, but odds are inconsistency weighs on his shooting percentages over the next few years.
Defense/Rebounding
Brown has all the makings of becoming a lockdown defender that can guard three to four positions. With quick feet, long arms and a strong foundation, he plays balanced and low to the ground, making him difficult to beat.
He's also established himself as a plus rebounder at his position. Brown really goes after loose balls around the basket, particularly on the offensive glass. In 15 games combined in 2014-15 between the FIBA Americas Championships, Adidas Nations, Nike Global Challenge, McDonald's All-American Game and Nike Hoop Summit, he averaged 10.2 boards per 40 minutes.
NBA Draft Outlook
Brown ultimately projects the image of a Jimmy Butler-like two-way wing. There really aren't any red flags attached to his outlook. He should seemingly fall under the safe category when it comes to evaluating prospects' risk versus reward.
Brown isn't the same type of mismatch as either of our top two small forward prospects, and that may keep him from jumping into this year's No. 1 overall conversation. But don't expect his name to stray from the top 10. Like Stanley Johnson's last year, his stock should remain strong and steady through his probable one-and-done year out West.
Brown's NBA Comparison: Jimmy Butler
2. Brandon Ingram, Duke, Freshman
Ingram is coming off a strong spring and summer that consisted of standout showings at the McDonald's All-American Game (15 points in 18 minutes) and Nike Hoop Summit (12 points on 5-of-6 from the floor).
And he'll immediately step in as Duke's go-to option in a role that should be similar to the one Jabari Parker played in 2013-14. Ingram may end up spending some time at power forward during his expected one-and-done freshman season, but long term, he projects as a mismatch on the wing.
| Birthday | Height | Weight (lbs) | Wingspan |
| September 2, 1997 | 6'9.5" | 196 | 7'3" |
His measurements fall just a bit short of Kevin Durant's from the 2007 NBA combine (6'10 ½" height, 7'4 ¾" wingspan). But with a smooth blend of size, length, athleticism and face-up offense, Ingram offers a package that ultimately screams NBA potential.
Though incredibly thin, effortless leaping ability and quickness help compensate for a lack of bulk. Ingram can shake defenders east and west and elevate above them for finishes.
Adding strength will remain an obvious priority over the next few seasons, but at 18 years old, skinny arms and legs don't offset the potential tied to his physical tools and phenomenal skill level.
Scoring
By the time he's peaked, we'll likely be referring to Ingram as a flat-out scorer.
Ingram could be toughest to guard around the perimeter, where he can effortlessly separate over defenders into step-back and pull-up jumpers. He gets good elevation and plenty of touch on his release, whether he's shooting it straight up and down or falling away off balance.
A tight handle and body control also translate to points off drives and slashes. Ingram can be a difficult off-the-dribble cover in ball screen and isolation situations, with the ability to change speed and finish on the move.
On the downside, it seems reasonable to think he'll struggle finishing after contact at the rim, particularly during his teenage years.
Defense
He covers ground using his wheels and quickness. His length gets into passing lanes and allows him to contest shots a step back from his man.
Ingram is bound to rack up his fair share of steals and blocks during his basketball career. He surely has the potential to become a disruptive perimeter defender.
NBA Draft Outlook
Ingram could ultimately be viewed as a sleeper candidate for the No. 1 overall pick. While his upside is tremendous, he also looks ready to roll. Proving he can take over games offensively without drawing red flags for limited strength will be the recipe for Ingram to maximize his stock.
It's worth noting he's roughly 10 months younger than our top-ranked small forward prospect. I'd currently rank Ingram No. 3 on our 2016 preseason big board.
Ingram's NBA Comparison: Tracy McGrady
1. Ben Simmons, LSU, Freshman
A resume decorated with championships, MVPs, Player of the Years and All-American honors fuels monster expectations for Simmons.
Physically, mentally, fundamentally—he's the whole package. Scouts from all 30 NBA franchises have already flocked to LSU for a specially held preseason combine, per Scout.com's Evan Daniels.
Bottom-of-the-barrel teams expected to compete for lottery position will likely have regular representation at every Tigers game and practice.
| Birthday | Height | Weight (lbs) | Wingspan |
| July 20, 1996 | 6'10" | 240 | 7'0" |
At 6'10", 240 pounds with a 41 ½" max vertical, Simmons blends power forward size with above-the-rim athleticism. He's developed the strength to plow through traffic, the burst to blow by it and the bounce to soar over it.
Still, it's Simmons' ball skills and off-the-dribble game that create versatility and such a matchup problem for opposing wings.
Facilitating/Vision/Basketball IQ
He's a player coaches can run their offense through. Simmons' vision and basketball IQ are outstanding. Essentially a guard in a big man's body, his differentiating strengths revolve around unique playmaking and passing. He sees the floor, gets to his spots and sets the table for teammates.
Coaches can use him as both a pick-and-roll operator and facilitator out of the post. We don't see too many, but Simmons is your prototypical point forward.
Transition
He projects as one of the game's most dangerous transition weapons. With size, explosiveness and a solid handle, expect to see routine coast-to-coast highlights from Simmons, who's an instant threat the second he pulls down a defensive rebound.
Converting open-floor looks into easy buckets is ultimately a big part of what makes Simmons so valuable.
More Versatility
In terms of being able to execute with consistency, Simmons' one-on-one attack remains a work in progress, but his arsenal has depth.
Step-backs, spot-ups, floaters, runners—they're all in there. Though his passing remains ahead of his scoring, he's a capable shot creator and maker off both one and two feet.
On top of a highly advanced offensive game, Simmons also shines at the defensive end, where he can secure the perimeter—thanks to blazing lateral foot speed—or hold his own down low. Expect to see him guard hybrid 4s, traditional 3s and even some 2s during his career.
NBA Draft Outlook
He's a triple-double waiting to happen. Simmons should have the production to match the potential at LSU, where he'll be featured from opening night.
Assuming he can manage the pressure—Simmons has been in the spotlight for years at Montverde Academy—we should be talking about a top-three lock and possible No. 1 overall favorite.
Simmons NBA Comparison: Lamar Odom (floor)/Scottie Pippen (ceiling)
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