Atlanta Falcons vs. New Orleans Saints Betting Odds, Analysis, NFL Pick

The undefeated Atlanta Falcons will visit the New Orleans Saints looking to continue their success as favorites in the month of October in the Week 6 Thursday night matchup. The Falcons are 11-2 straight up in their last 13 games as chalk in October while the Saints have gone 5-2 SU and against the spread in their past seven as home underdogs.

Point spread: The Falcons opened as three-point favorites; the total was 50.5 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark. (Line updates and matchup report)

NFL pick, via Odds Shark computer: 26.0-23.2 Saints

Why the Falcons can cover the spread

Atlanta has the most lethal offense in the NFC South and one of the highest-scoring teams in the NFL, which will make it difficult for New Orleans to keep up on the scoreboard. The Falcons have proved they can hurt their opponents either through the air with quarterback Matt Ryan and wide receiver Julio Jones or on the ground with running back Devonta Freeman, who leads the league with eight rushing touchdowns.

Defensively, they also do not need to worry too much about Saints quarterback Drew Brees, who has been a shell of his former self due to an ailing shoulder that kept him out of action in Week 3. While New Orleans did get its lone victory upon his return in Week 4, that was against a Dallas Cowboys team playing without Tony Romo and Dez Bryant. Atlanta is also 8-2 ATS in its past 10 games against the Saints in October.

Why the Saints can cover the spread

New Orleans can cover and win this game by slowing down the pace and utilizing running backs Mark Ingram and Khiry Robinson more. Brees can throw for 300-plus yards in just about any game he plays, but that’s not necessarily a good thing. For example, he threw for 335 in last week’s 39-17 road loss to the Philadelphia Eagles more out of necessity than anything else. The Saints need to dictate the tempo here and not get lured into a shootout against a strong offensive team.

That being said, Atlanta’s receivers are not 100 percent healthy right now and not producing like they were earlier in the year. Julio Jones is no longer leading the NFL in receiving yards and is dealing with a hamstring injury while Leonard Hankerson has been bothered by sore ribs. If the New Orleans defense can be physical with them and hold them in check, the team will have an excellent shot to win its second straight at home.

Smart pick

The Saints always seem to play their best at home when they are featured in prime time. That will obviously be the case here, so back them to hand the Falcons their first loss of the season. New Orleans has won seven straight October home games and will make it eight in a row with an upset victory against Atlanta Thursday night.

Betting trends

The Falcons are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games against the Saints in October.

The Falcons are 2-7 SU in their last nine games on the road against the Saints.

The Saints are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games as home underdogs.

All point spread and lines data courtesy of Odds Shark, all quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates and get the free odds tracker app.