Everything You Need to Know About the Atlanta Hawks' 2015-16 NBA Season
Coming off the first 60-win season in the lengthy history of this franchise, the Atlanta Hawks still aren't feeling the burden of expectations. If anything, they're trying to prove what happened during the 2014-15 campaign—special as it may have been—was legitimate success and not the product of a major fluke.
Al Horford, Paul Millsap, Jeff Teague and Kyle Korver are back, trying to wipe the bitter taste of playoff defeat out of their mouths. Promising as the regular season may have been, the Hawks sputtered on the bigger stage—especially when they squared off against the Cleveland Cavaliers in the Eastern Conference Finals, clanging open shots off the iron and scrambling to make up for the myriad injured rotation members.
There's no more DeMarre Carroll to take the reins during the most important part of the NBA calendar. In his place are more big men and a plethora of unproven wings.
Nevertheless, the Hawks will soldier on under head coach Mike Budenholzer, deploying the same ball-sharing system that led to such surprising success one year prior. Expect lots of threes, lots of assists, lots of timely defensive rotations and, once more, lots of wins.
Key Additions/Subtractions
- Additions: Tim Hardaway Jr. (trade), Justin Holiday (free agency), Tiago Splitter (trade), Walter Tavares (draft rights)
- Subtractions: Pero Antic (overseas), DeMarre Carroll (free agency), Austin Daye (free agency), John Jenkins (free agency)
Considering Millsap's importance to last year's No. 1 seed in the Eastern Conference, letting Carroll walk to the Toronto Raptors was the right decision. The Hawks never had the financial means necessary to sign both free agents to new contracts, and the power forward's contributions were correctly deemed more irreplaceable—a sentiment that will become doubly true if the incoming wing players are able to mitigate the impact of losing Carroll.
Tim Hardaway Jr. fell out of favor with the New York Knicks after basically refusing to pass the ball consistently and showing little effort on the defensive end. Still, he's a talented shot-creating presence, allowing the Hawks to hope the major flaws were systemic and can be fixed in Budenholzer's team-oriented system.
As for Justin Holiday, he played important minutes for the opposite reason. At times, the 26-year-old's defensive ability made him a rotation member for the Golden State Warriors, and he also shows some signs of being able to turn into a three-and-D contributor.
Storylines to Watch
Replacing Carroll in expeditious fashion is key for the Hawks. Thanks to his defensive mentality and ability to help space the court for everyone else in the starting lineup, he was a vital part of the team's overall success, even if his playoff performance was even more impressive.
Budenholzer will likely need to experiment with Holiday and Hardaway throughout the regular season, also mixing in Thabo Sefolosha (once he's fully recovered from the broken leg he suffered late last year) and Kent Bazemore on the wings.
Figuring out the right rotation will take time, but Atlanta does have a promising mix of defensive ability and offensive potency at the shooting guard and small forward positions, albeit not in a one-size-fits-all package such as Carroll.
But that's not the only area that needs attention. Rebounding often held back a fairly undersized team during the 2014-15 campaign (No. 22 in defensive rebounding percentage and No. 30 in offensive rebounding percentage), and the Hawks can't afford to give up so many second-chance opportunities if they hope to approach 60 wins once more.
Budenholzer concurs, per Chris Vivlamore of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution:
"I think defensive rebounding is an area, really since we came here two years ago and now going into year three, where if we are going to be a team that is competing at a high level I think we’re going to have to be better defensively on the boards. It’s going to take a commitment from the entire group, like we’ve been talking about the last couple of years. That is an area defensively where we would like to improve.
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After the additions of Tiago Splitter (6'11") and Walter Tavares (7'3"), the Hawks should have the requisite size necessary to feast on defensive rebounds. Now, establishing the right type of mentality is the final step toward establishing competency in this important facet of the game that was so often overlooked in Atlanta.
X-Factor: Justin Holiday
The 26-year-old swingman played sparingly for the Warriors during their run to a title last year, but he should fill a much more significant role now that he's signed on with the Hawks. Not only does he show flashes of shooting ability from the perimeter (32.1 percent from beyond the arc in 2014-15), but he also carries with him a set of fundamental tools on the defensive end.
There's also the hope that increased playing time will lead to more success, as KL Chouinard pointed out for NBA.com:
"Interestingly, when Holiday did play more minutes, he used them to produce. Consider the following statistic: In 59 games overall, Holiday shot 38.7% from the field and 32.1% from three-point range. In the 18 games in which Holiday played 15 or more minutes, those numbers jump significantly: 48.5% shooting from the field and 42.6% on three-point shots.
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In many ways, Holiday resembles the player Carroll was before Budenholzer got his hands on him. And if there's going to be a similar jump, that's joyous news for the reigning No. 1 seed in the NBA's weaker half.
Making the Leap: Dennis Schroder
Though Dennis Schroder has shown tantalizing potential ever since coming into the NBA, the German point guard hasn't always been a great fit for the Hawks' system. The ball sticks in his hands, the result of his desires to use his speedy first step to get to the hoop instead of making the easy passes that involve teammates.
As a result, Atlanta hasn't always been better with him on the court, per Basketball-Reference.com:
To be fair, part of that negative effect stems from context. Playing behind Jeff Teague for the majority of his minutes will do that. But Schroder still needs to mature into the system, and this is the year that should fully happen.
Now in the third season of his young NBA career, Schroder is intimately familiar with Budenholzer's stylings, and he's consistently improved his ability to both run the offense and play alongside Teague in a two-point guard system. Should he make the proverbial leap, the Hawks add another dynamic weapon to their coffers, one capable of taking over possessions when the need arises.
Best-Case Scenario
"Initially, they did great by bringing in guys who can shoot the basketball, bringing in guys who can rebound for us, bigger bodies, playoff experience, championship experience," Millsap explained to the masses at media day, per Vivlamore. "Initially, things look great."
If all the additions immediately achieve perfect cohesion and the deep Hawks stay healthy, they have the ability to follow up the first 60-win campaign in franchise history with the second. Using the playoff experience they gained in 2015, an Eastern Conference Finals rematch with the Cavaliers is not only a possibility, but a probability. And once a team is into the penultimate round of the postseason, anything can happen for one that avoids the injury bug.
Worst-Case Scenario
In a worst-case scenario, Carroll's absence proves too much for the conglomerate of young wings to overcome, and the Hawks take a big step backward. They already overachieved a bit last year, and regression rears its ugly head as they fall outside the top four spots in the Eastern Conference and are forced to play the first round of the NBA's second season on the road.
Even in the Hawks' worst nightmares, they're a playoff team. The undeniable depth and return of four All-Stars dictates as much. But for a squad so utterly reliant on perimeter shooting and nearly unsurpassed chemistry, struggling to fill one major spot in the rotation can be quite problematic.
Predictions
It's easy to foretell doom and gloom after Carroll left town to join the Raptors, fresh off a postseason in which he averaged 14.6 points and exploded during the first few rounds before a knee injury sapped his strength. But of the five starters, the small forward had the smallest impact on the team's success, and he's arguably the easiest to replace.
Atlanta's success will ultimately hinge on the ability of the newcomers (Hardaway and Holiday) and incumbents (Sefolosha and Bazemore) on the wings to make up for Carroll's lost production, and Budenholzer should be able to figure something out by the end of the year.
So long as he does, this is a team that could—contrary to popular belief after it only brought back one of two big-name free agents—be even more dangerous when the 2015-16 calendar is drawing to a conclusion.
There will be inevitable adjustment periods, and the Hawks did overachieve rather significantly in 2014-15—the result of virtually everything breaking right during the perfect month of January and the weeks that came directly after it. But breaking past 50 wins is a very realistic goal, and that puts the Hawks right in the thick of the fight for No. 2 in the Eastern Conference.
Given the experience of the four All-Stars and the continuity so much of this roster enjoys, the Hawks should enter the season as the favorites to earn that spot. Not heavy favorites by any stretch of the imagination, but favorites nonetheless.
- Final Record: 53-29
- Division Standings: First in Southeast
- Playoffs: Yes
- Playoff Finish: Eliminated in Eastern Conference Finals
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