Manchester City's Premier League Title Challenge Could Rest on Vincent Kompany

Manchester City’s Premier League title hopes could be determined by the fitness of their captain, Vincent Kompany.

The Belgian centre-back, who has suffered 10 calf injuries in three-and-a-half years, according to Jamie Jackson of the Guardian, has been sidelined since going off during City’s defeat to Juventus in the UEFA Champions League three weeks ago. Since then, the Blues defence has looked porous.

Kompany left the field with the score at 1-1—Mario Mandzukic's equaliser for Juventus was the first goal City had conceded in six games. Alvaro Morata added a second for Juve as they left the Etihad with a wonderful start to their Group D campaign, and since then, City have conceded nine goals in five matches.

Perhaps the most salient example of City struggling without Kompany’s influence came in the second half against Tottenham Hotspur at White Hart Lane 11 days ago.

City’s collapse after largely dominating the first period was startling, with a lack of leadership and organisation at the heart of their problems. They lost 4-1—the heaviest defeat in the Sheikh Mansour era.

Nicolas Otamendi and Martin Demichelis were partnered together that day and struggled. It was a similar story in the following match—a 2-1 win over Borussia Monchengladbach. City snatched three points thanks to Sergio Aguero’s 89th-minute penalty, but their defensive woes could not be ignored.

Every time Gladbach attacked, they looked likely to score.

Natacha Pisarenko/Associated Press

Both Otamendi and Demichelis are fine defenders, yet without the leadership and organisation that Kompany brings to the side, they were pulled all over the place and run ragged by both Tottenham and the Bundesliga side.

Eliaquim Mangala, too, has played his best football this season alongside the City captain. He was Kompany’s partner for the first five league games and looked more assured than at any stage during his debut campaign with City. The nervousness and positional errors that blighted him in 2014/15 were no longer on show.

Kompany, a steadying influence, was marshalling the defence superbly and even weighed in with two goals. It was an impressive start to the new campaign.

This is all a far cry from last season, when Kompany’s presence in the side was seen as part of City’s downfall. His form was dreadful, and it was only when Mangala and Demichelis were partnered that City looked stable defensively.

In fact, when either Demichelis or Mangala were partnered with Kompany, they very often looked worse than when in tandem with each other.

Statistics taken from Soccerbase, which looks across all four competitions they were involved in, indicate that City’s win percentage during the 2014/15 season was much higher when Mangala and Demichelis were paired together. 

	Win Percentage	Draw Percentage	Loss Percentage
Kompany and Demichelis	28	22	50
Kompany and Mangala	67	17	17
Demichelis and Mangala	76	18	6

With Demichelis and Mangala together in defence, City conceded 14 goals in 17 matches, an average of 0.82 per game. In contrast, Kompany and Demichelis conceded 24 in 18 (1.3 goals per game), and Kompany and Mangala allowed 12 in 12 ( a goal per game).

These statistics—which are without certain contextual factors, such as the quality of opposition—don’t necessarily tell us the whole story, but they offer an insight into City’s vulnerability with Kompany in the side last season.

His improvement this term before his latest setback was stark.

He was back to his dominant best, with the controlled aggression, pace and leadership that made him the league’s top centre-back prior to last season all back on display.

Matthew Ashton - AMA/Getty Images

And with City possessing the best array of attacking options in the league, Kompany’s presence now appears vital in ensuring that they start to pull ahead of the chasing pack.

They currently sit two points clear of Arsenal and Manchester United at the top of the Premier League table. With Aguero surely now back to his best after his five-goal haul against Newcastle United in City’s last match, and with Kevin De Bruyne, David Silva, Raheem Sterling, Jesus Navas and Samir Nasri in support, no other side in the English top flight can compete with their firepower.

City need their captain back. His athleticism and calming presence are needed to organise and stabilise a back four that has shown signs of weakness in recent weeks.

If he can do that, no English team will touch City this season.

Rob Pollard is Bleacher Report's lead Manchester City correspondent and will be following the club from a Manchester base throughout the 2015/16 season. All quotes were obtained firsthand unless otherwise noted. Follow him on Twitter @RobPollard_.