Falcons Are the Best NFC Contender You Never Saw Coming

With the regular season a quarter of the way through, the Atlanta Falcons have balance on offense and defense, a slew of convincing victories under their belt and a big fat zero in the "L" column.

Coming off a 6-10 season that got the head coach fired and the general manager demoted, the Falcons—with largely the same roster—haven't just rocketed to the top of the subpar NFC South, but they've established themselves as a legitimate NFC title contender. During the offseason Bovada listed the Falcons as 40-1 long shots to win the Super Bowl, tied for 18th. After Week 3, Bovada had them tied for sixth-most likely to win it all, per Odds Shark; after this beatdown, those odds should get shorter yet.

Last week in this space, I explained why Julio Jones is emerging as a strong MVP candidate. In a 48-21 dismantling of the Houston Texans, Jones had just four catches for 38 yards—but the threat of his ability opened up the field for every other Falcons pass-catcher, and the effectiveness of Devonta Freeman and the run game meant Matt Ryan had the luxury of throwing it only 27 times.

On the other side of the ball, it feels like new head coach Dan Quinn with some sort of radical transformation—but the shift from Mike Nolan's hybridized 3-4 to Quinn's 4-3 Under has been anything but. Outside of first-round pick Vic Beasley, only two defensive starters—linebackers Justin Durant and O'Brien Schofield—weren't on last year's roster.

David Goldman/Associated Press

Though football aficionados may quibble over the finer points of defensive line technique, the fact is Quinn is simply getting much better play out of largely the same players. Whether he's doing a better job of putting them in position to win or they're playing harder for him is almost irrelevant.

Of course, the Falcons don't have anything locked up. The Carolina Panthers polished off the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Sunday, too, leaving the two teams tied atop the division. With so few significant personnel additions, those additions are significant—meaning, if the Falcons lose a Beasley or a Durant, they don't have the depth to replace him.

Whether the Falcons have what it takes to upset the likes of the Arizona Cardinals and Green Bay Packers in the dead of winter is debatable—but if their performance through the first four games is any indication, the Falcons will definitely get a chance to try.

Coming into the game against the Texans, the Falcons had the fifth-best scoring offense in the NFL and were outscoring opponents by an average of 5.7 points per game. That mark was good for ninth in the NFL—but both of those numbers will look even better after Sunday.

It started off quickly: Texans quarterback Ryan Mallett was intercepted on his first possession, setting up a Freeman touchdown run. Houston answered with a punt, and the Falcons mounted a 10-play, 6:19 drive that ended with another Freeman touchdown run:

Just on the other side of the second quarter, both teams traded three-and-outs. That's when Texans tailback Arian Foster, who just returned from injury, coughed up a fumble—and cornerback Desmond Trufant made his first fumble recovery of the day, and ran it back for the Falcons' first defensive touchdown of the day.

Yes, you read that right.

Mallett responded by leading a six-play drive, but it started on the Houston 20-yard line and didn't make it past the Houston 40. With Freeman briefly dinged up, Ryan led the Falcons back down the field and capped the drive with a touchdown pass to Leonard Hankerson. The score was 28-0, and it wasn't even halftime yet.

On the subsequent drive, Mallett dunked it to big tight end C.J. Fiedorowicz; Fiedorowicz fumbled, and Trufant pounced on it. In doing so, Trufant made recent Falcons history, according to Falcons director of communications Matt Haley:

"

Desmond Trufant is the 1st Falcon w/ 2 fumble recoveries in the same game since R. McClain & J. Babneaux each had two vs WAS in 2013 #RiseUp

— Matt Haley (@FalconsMHaley) October 4, 2015"

The Texans caught a break when the Falcons did nothing with that possession—but were broken when their final first-half possession ended with a missed field goal.

No, I have no idea what good a field goal was going to do in the face of a 28-0 deficit.

After halftime, another Devonta Freeman touchdown made it 35-0. After another Houston three-and-out, another Falcons rushing touchdown (this one from Terron Ward) made it 42-0. With 2:56 left in the third quarter, Texans head coach Bill O'Brien broke his in-case-of-emergency glass and put in erstwhile starter Brian Hoyer.

John Bazemore/Associated Press

Hoyer led the Texans on three garbage-time touchdown drives and was on his way to engineering a fourth when a last-second trick play to Cecil Shorts resulted in a fumble—and the Falcons' second defensive touchdown.

Now, the Falcons are 4-0, and Freeman's stat line is unreal: 66 carries for 252 yards and a whopping seven touchdowns, plus 17 catches for 196 yards—and all that in just two starts.

"Opportunity is everything," Freeman told the Associated Press, via ABC News. "I've always believed in myself, but it's hard to get a feel when you're not playing. I have to get in a rhythm, and then the confidence comes."

For the first time since Michael Turner was in his prime, the Atlanta offense has explosion and balance on offense—and that will continue to terrify opposing defenses. As long as the Falcons, whose defensive makeover is little more than skin deep, avoid major injuries or locker-room distractions, they'll top the one-dimensional Panthers for the NFC South.

Team	Record
Green Bay Packers	4-0
Atlanta Falcons	4-0
Arizona Cardinals	3-1
Carolina Panthers	4-0
Seattle Seahawks	1-2*

Yes, the Panthers are also 4-0 and, with their exceptional defense, are almost the Falcons' mirror. Yet, by relying on Cam Newton for nearly all of their offensive production, the Panthers will struggle to match the game-to-game consistency of the Falcons offense—and while the Panthers' defensive stats are impressive, their four victims (the Texans, Jacksonville Jaguars, New Orleans Saints and Tampa Bay Buccaneers) are hardly juggernauts.

Should Ryan, Jones and Freeman indeed lead the Falcons past the Panthers in December, they just might topple some NFC giants come January.