Jaguars vs. Colts: What's the Game Plan for Indianapolis?

As it turns out, the sky might actually be falling, because Indianapolis Colts quarterback Andrew Luck is questionable to play against the Jacksonville Jaguars on Sunday at Lucas Oil Stadium.

Having been healthy throughout his first three seasons in the league with Indianapolis, Luck has been limited in the last three practices and, despite head coach Chuck Pagano having confidence he will play, the signs are troubling, to say the least.

Luck hasn’t quite been himself so far this season, even during the fourth-quarter comeback win by the Colts last week against the Titans, but no matter how bad his form is, losing Luck for any amount of time is the worst-case scenario.

Matt Hasselbeck is a capable veteran backup, but he can’t do some of the things Luck can. Last week was the first sign of hope for Indianapolis after an abysmal start to the season, and now the injury news threatens to derail Super Bowl hopes even more.

With a huge division matchup against the Jaguars looming, the Colts need to find a way to win with or without Luck in the hopes of not falling behind in what could be a tight division battle.

Offensive Game Plan

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You wouldn’t know it from watching their games this season, but the Colts have actually been pretty good running the ball with Frank Gore. After getting down early in the first three weeks, Indianapolis was forced to throw much more often than it would have liked.

Indy brought in Gore for the purpose of balancing the offense, and despite facing a couple of stiff defensive tests so far, he has delivered in limited action. So far this year, Indianapolis is ranked No. 21 in the league in rushing yards, but it also ranks No. 6 overall in yards per carry.

Last week was a sign that Gore is up to the task when given the opportunity. Against the Titans, the former 49er ran for 86 yards on 14 carries with his first two touchdowns for the team. If Luck is limited or even out against the Jaguars, the Colts should be confident in leaning on the veteran running back.

Jacksonville doesn’t have the strongest run defense in the league, giving up three touchdowns to LeGarrette Blount last week in a blowout loss to the Patriots, and Gore is more than capable of putting up big numbers on Sunday.

If Luck is fully healthy and ready to go, there should be more of a balance than in the first three weeks with the hopes that his injury doesn’t get worse. But with Gore in their back pocket, the Colts could look much more like a run-heavy team than they have in a long time.

Defensive Game Plan

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It has been a long time since Jacksonville has truly been a threat offensively, with a revolving door at quarterback and some questionable decisions when it comes to the skill players—remember the Toby Gerhart experiment—but things are slowly turning around for Jacksonville this year.

Blake Bortles is a huge improvement on the Blaine Gabbert experiment, and while T.J. Yeldon has looked like a disappointment through three games, the running attack can’t be much worse than it was last year. But the real threat exists on the outside, with the growth of the wide receiver pairing of Allen Hurns and Allen Robinson.

The Allens have both had strong starts to the season and have found a bit of chemistry with Bortles, combining for more than 64 percent of the team’s receiving yards this year, and it is imperative for the Colts to shut them down.

In what is becoming an alarming normality, the Colts cornerbacks have struggled each week so far this season, but there appears to be a light at the end of the tunnel. According to CBSSports.com, Darius Butler is expected to return and relieve Jalil Brown of his starting job, a welcome sign for Indianapolis fans.

Brown hasn’t exactly made the best of a bad situation, and opposing receivers have regularly burned him. But with the duo of Vontae Davis and Butler as the starters, the Colts can focus on getting a little more of a pass rush while the corners try to shut down the Allens.

Key Players and Matchups

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CB Darius Butler

No offense intended to Brown, who should never have been put in the position he was because of injuries, but the return of Butler from injury is arguably the best thing that has happened to the Colts this season.

Although he wasn’t great against the Bills in Week 1, Butler is a big upgrade on Brown and should give Indianapolis a much better feeling about its cornerbacks than it has had recently. Hurns and Robinson are a dangerous duo, and Butler pairing with Davis could go a long way toward shutting down the passing game.

QB Matt Hasselbeck

Don’t get me wrong, Hasselbeck is one of the most underrated quarterbacks of all time. Having made it to the Pro Bowl three times and leading the Seahawks to the Super Bowl, he doesn’t nearly get the respect he deserves from when he was at his peak.

Unfortunately for the Colts, his peak was more than half a decade ago, and he is 40 years old now. Hasselbeck is one of the league’s best and most experienced backups, but losing Luck is the last thing Indianapolis wants, and the chances keep getting better that that is the scenario it faces on Sunday.

Hasselbeck starting isn’t a death blow by any stretch, but he is no Luck, and the Colts' chances of winning with Hasselbeck under center decrease drastically.

OG Lance Louis

The Colts offensive line was atrocious in the first two weeks of the season against the Bills and Jets, so Indianapolis did what any intelligent team would do and made a number of changes. It moved Jack Mewhort to left guard, inserted Joe Reitz as the starting right tackle and moved Hugh Thornton to left guard in place of the injured Lance Louis.

Things were better against Tennessee, but not by much in terms of keeping Luck safe. Thornton in particular was atrocious and looked much like the player only in the starting lineup because of an injury.

Louis wasn’t great to start the season, but his return has to be an improvement for the Colts, and Sunday against Jacksonville will give the team a better sense of where its offensive line stands after the changes.

LB Trent Cole

As with a good majority of the Colts roster, Trent Cole didn’t exactly have a great start to the season. But with him missing against the Titans, Indianapolis saw its pass rush evaporate from limited-but-passable to more or less nonexistent.

Cole looks likely to return against Jacksonville and should help improve the pass rush significantly. Even if Bortles isn’t quite as mobile as Marcus Mariota, the additional rush should make a huge difference and help the Colts improve on their performance from Week 3.

Prediction

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Oddly enough, as important as the injury to Luck is going to be, it likely won’t have an impact on which team wins this game.

Luck has been off his game so far this season, and Hasselbeck isn’t as bad as everyone thinks—he isn’t Luck but isn’t bad by any stretch—and the Colts seem to be adapting to the issues that have plagued them early in the season.

Tweaking the offensive line was a step in the right direction, the rest of the team getting healthy is huge and the Colts look to be on the right path back toward the top of the AFC South.

Jacksonville has its threats on both sides of the ball, but with an increased role for Gore paired with a talented receiving corps and a quickly developing front seven, Indianapolis carries the advantage into the Week 4 matchup and should continue its winning streak against division opponents.

Prediction: Colts 24, Jaguars 21