Bleacher Report's Week 5 College Football Playoff Predictions

Will your team make the College Football Playoff in 2015?

While the committee won't release its first rankings until November 3, we can use the Associated Press poll with my algorithm to make a prediction. Let me explain the key take-home points in these results.

Is it too early to make a prediction?

Week 4 might seem too early to assign a probability for making the playoff. However, the performance of college football teams tends to persist from season to season.

The Michigan Wolverines have a century of tradition and the financial resources from packing over 100,000 fans into the Big House for every game. The Louisiana Monroe Warhawks, on the other hand, have the smallest athletic department budget of any FBS school. All this to say, it's unlikely these two schools trade places.

At the Power Rank, I also rank teams by taking margin of victory and adjusting for strength of schedule. Each team gets a rating, which gives a predicted margin of victory against an average team. The visual below shows how these ratings tend to persist from year to year.

Ed Feng

This persistence allows me to calculate preseason ratings that predict more than 70 percent of game-winners since the 2005 season. With the addition of data from four weeks of games, there can be an even better estimate of each team. So in reality, it's not too early to assign a meaningful probability to each team.

Parity rules the top 10

No team has better than even odds to make the playoffs; the Baylor Bears have the highest playoff probability at 48.6 percent. Seven teams have a greater than 25 percent chance to get selected as one of the final four teams.

With so many games left to play, no team has emerged as a clear favorite to make the final four. However, the numbers do identify seven teams with the best chance. The playoff probabilities of the top teams will also increase as more games get played, as there is less opportunity for a slip-up. For example, the Oregon Ducks had a greater than 70 percent chance after Week 11 last season.

Todd Kirkland/Getty Images

Alabama Crimson Tide vs. Georgia Bulldogs will impact these numbers

The top 10 in playoff probability currently features four SEC teams. Georgia and Ole Miss have the third- and fourth-highest playoff probability, while Alabama and LSU just make the top 10. The Crimson Tide travel to Georgia this weekend in a game that will add clarity to the top of the conference. Just like the markets, my numbers consider Georgia the favorite with a 61.9 percent win probability.

If Georgia wins, it will confirm its spot among the top teams in the country. If Alabama wins, it most likely jumps into the top five for playoff probability.

What is wrong with the Pac-12?

The Pac-12 has zero teams in the top 10 for playoff probability. The UCLA Bruins are 11th with a 14.3 percent chance. How did this happen?

Oregon has been near the top of the conference for the last five years. However, the Ducks looked awful on defense as the Utah Utes beat them 62-20 on their home turf in Eugene on Saturday. The Stanford Cardinal similarly looked terrible in a opening-week loss at the Northwestern Wildcats. However, a win at USC has vaulted them back to 21st in the AP poll and dropped the Trojans to 19th.

Utah is doing better in the AP poll, at 10th following its stunning win over Oregon. However, it doesn't fare as well in my numbers, which limits its playoff probability to 5.5 percent, only 17th-best in the nation.

Notre Dame Fighting Irish's injuries

The 4-0 Notre Dame Fighting Irish have an 18.3 percent chance to make the playoff, eighth-best in the nation.

However, they have suffered major injuries on offense as quarterback Malik Zaire, tight end Durham Smythe and running back Tarean Folston are done for the season. My numbers do not account for these injuries, and it's tempting to think the team's playoff probability drops due to these losses. However, Notre Dame's offense has played admirably the last three games in spite of the injuries.

They face a stiff test, traveling to the Clemson Tigers on Saturday. According to my yards per play adjusted for strength of schedule, Clemson has the best defense in the nation.