San Jose State vs. Auburn Complete Game Preview
As Auburn heads into the second month of the 2015 season, the Tigers are already virtually eliminated from accomplishing their biggest preseason goals—returning to the SEC and national title pictures.
Auburn will be looking for its first complete performance of the year this Saturday against San Jose State, a fellow 2-2 team that the Tigers routed 59-13 early in 2014.
However, this year's Auburn team hasn't shown nearly that same amount of high-scoring potential on offense, as a surprising quarterback change last week prompted a few improvements but ultimately zero touchdowns against SEC West rival Mississippi State.
Auburn's defense is hoping to build on last weekend's performance against the Bulldogs, which featured excellent run-stopping and a second-half surge. The Tigers will most likely need that same level of play again, as their Mountain West opponents this week are coming off a monster offensive showcase in a rivalry win.
Before we break down the second straight meeting between Auburn and San Jose State, here is all the basic info for the matchup:
Date: Saturday, Oct. 3
Time: 4 p.m. ET (3 p.m. local time)
Location: Auburn, Alabama (Jordan-Hare Stadium)
TV: SEC Network
Radio: Auburn IMG Sports Network
Line: Auburn -20, according to Odds Shark
San Jose State Keys to Victory
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Keep Auburn's defense off-balance
In its big win over rival Fresno State last weekend, San Jose State did a great job of mixing things up and keeping the Bulldogs off-balance defensively. A lot of credit goes to current SJSU offensive coordinator Al Borges, who was an assistant at Auburn from 2004-07.
"This was a classic Borges game," Jon Wilner of the San Jose Mercury News wrote. "Physical rushing attack between the tackles that sets up the play-action game for middle-distance passes, while moving the pocket frequently enough to flummox the defense."
Auburn's transitioning defense played well for the most part last weekend against Mississippi State, but defensive coordinator Will Muschamp is still trying to find his best combination of players—some of whom are inexperienced freshmen. Middle-distance passes and moving pockets have already been successful this season against the Tigers.
Avoid the backbreaking turnovers
After defeating New Hampshire in Week 1, SJSU had back-to-back losses against Air Force and Oregon State. In both of those losses, a pair of second-half turnovers led to the Spartans' downfall.
In order to come into Jordan-Hare Stadium and pull off the big upset, San Jose State must keep the chains moving and try not to force the issue in a tight game. Pick-sixes and quick fumbles have already turned close contests into runaway victories for the Spartans' opponents in road games.
With Auburn struggling to score in bunches and create explosive plays, San Jose State needs to take special care of the football. Short fields can be disastrous, even against a Tigers attack that was toothless last Saturday.
Cut down special teams errors
As Wilner wrote last Saturday, special teams errors didn't cost San Jose State against an awful Fresno State team. But the Spartans can't keep playing the same way in the third phase and expect to pull off upsets.
The kicking combination of Austin Lopez and Bryce Crawford has converted only two of San Jose State's five field-goal attempts so far this season. They've also missed three extra-point attempts—the second-most in college football behind UConn.
Punter Michael Carrizosa leads the nation in punting average this season, but a nagging issue of bad snaps led to opponent touchdowns in the Oregon State and Fresno State games. The Spartans need to avoid any miscues in order to pull off this upset. If momentum shifts happen on special teams, they can't swing in Auburn's direction.
Auburn Keys to Victory
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Pound the ball on the ground
Auburn will want to use this nonconference matchup as a way to get more confidence for new starting quarterback Sean White. But the quickest way to offensive success against the Spartans seems to be right through the heart of their defense.
San Jose State ranks 119th nationally in rushing yards allowed per play. In its two road games—at option-running Air Force and Oregon State, which has a dynamic dual-threat quarterback in Seth Collins—the Spartans gave up 731 rushing yards on 115 carries.
Peyton Barber continues to be the saving grace of a lackluster Auburn offense so far this season, as he once again went over the 100-yard and 20-carry marks in rushing against Mississippi State. The Tigers should let him lead the way Saturday.
Keep up momentum in run defense
After getting absolutely shredded by Heisman front-runner Leonard Fournette two weekends ago, Auburn's defense responded in a huge way last weekend by allowing just 56 rushing yards on Mississippi State's 21 carries. In his last two games against Auburn, Bulldogs quarterback Dak Prescott went over the 100-yard mark by himself, so this was a big success for the Tiger defense.
Auburn needs to stick with whatever worked so well last weekend against the Mississippi State ground attack, because it's about to face the nation's leading rusher from Week 4. Tyler Ervin, who was mainly a receiving weapon last year against Auburn, ran for 300 yards on an astounding 42 carries.
The Spartans will surely work the ball with Ervin after his monster performance and tap into the success that other teams have had on the ground against the Tigers. Auburn needs to prove last week wasn't just an anomaly for this run defense.
Get off to a quicker start
Auburn needs to get off to better starts on both sides of the ball against San Jose State. After being shut out in the first half by Mississippi State last weekend, Auburn's offense still has only scored one touchdown before halftime this season—and it came on a short field in the first drive of the season-opener against Louisville.
Last week against Mississippi State, Auburn gave up an easy touchdown to Prescott, who was perfect through the air on the opening drive. "We needed to start fast in our home stadium, especially with the offense taking seven minutes off the clock," Muschamp said, per Wesley Sinor of AL.com.
San Jose State isn't going to be overwhelmed by Auburn because it was in the same spot last season against a better all-around group of Tigers. The best thing Auburn can do is knock these Spartans out early and not let them hang in there.
San Jose State Players to Watch
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RB Tyler Ervin
It's impossible to mention anyone on this San Jose State team without mentioning Ervin first. Before his 300-yard performance against Fresno State, Ervin had already posted six touchdowns and a game against Fresno State in which he averaged more than 10 yards per carry.
"You saw in his eyes early in the game that he wanted this," head coach Ron Caragher said after Ervin's big day against Fresno State, per Ray Hacke of the San Jose Mercury News. "The whole team wanted this game. Our guys were able to put our past two losses behind us and execute."
With uncertainty at the quarterback spot for San Jose State, Ervin is the unquestioned leader of the Spartan offense. When this big-play back is clicking, the whole team seems to play at a higher level.
TE Billy Freeman
No matter who starts at quarterback between Kenny Potter, who was injured last weekend, and Joe Gray, the Spartans' signal-caller will want to feed the ball to Billy Freeman.
The third-year starter at tight end is averaging 11.87 yards per catch and has found the end zone twice this season for a passing attack that has scored only six times. He's caught at least four passes in all but one game so far in 2015.
Freeman will be a valuable weapon in the mid-range passing game that has troubled Auburn so far this season. He'll be a challenge for a linebacking corps that needs continuous improvement, especially in pass defense.
CB Jimmy Pruitt
The veteran leader of the San Jose State secondary, Jimmy Pruitt is coming off one of his best-ever games as a Spartan.
Last weekend against Fresno State, he recorded seven tackles—his most since the 2013 season—and had an important pick-six. The ball-hawking senior has two picks through four games.
Pruitt will also be active in run support, as he recorded a tackle for loss against option-running Air Force earlier this season. Look for him to be a disruptor to what Auburn tries to do with White in his second career start.
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Auburn Players to Watch
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QB Sean White
Although Auburn didn't find the end zone against Mississippi State, White performed well for a quarterback playing in his first collegiate game. The freshman finished 20-of-28 passing for 188 yards and one interception, and head coach Gus Malzahn believes the offense showed a level of consistency that it didn't have with former starter Jeremy Johnson.
"There was times, at least from a coach’s standpoint, at least I felt like we were in rhythm," Malzahn said, per Tom Green of the Opelika-Auburn News. "We started getting some first downs. We started getting some pace."
White shouldn't be under the same amount of pressure he faced against Mississippi State, as San Jose State has recorded only three sacks through four games this season. With more time in the pocket, look for things to start opening up more for the young quarterback.
RB Peyton Barber
With San Jose State's woes against the run when facing anyone not named Fresno State, this feels like a game in which the Tigers can give it to Barber and get out of his way.
Barber is averaging five yards per carry through the first four games of the season. With the obvious exception of the LSU game, when he touched the ball only seven times, his yardage has improved each week.
The Tigers will continue to use other running backs—when healthy—behind Barber, but the workhorse back has been one of the only bright spots for this entire offense. The San Jose State game should give him an opportunity to break free for some of the explosive plays Auburn has been missing.
The defensive ends
If the defense can carry over its strong performance against the run from the Mississippi State game, the next step for the Tigers is to find some sort of pass rush.
Prescott never took a sack last Saturday and was rarely forced into making poor throws. That could be big trouble for Auburn against San Jose State, especially after quarterback Joe Gray threw three touchdowns and just three incompletions in his 222-yard performance last week against Fresno State.
According to Sinor, Muschamp said Sunday night that Auburn "needs to be good on the edges" against a Borges offense. So far in 2015, the defensive ends have been anything but good.
What They're Saying
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San Jose State
Defensive tackle Tony Popovich on facing Auburn for the second year in a row, per Jon Wilner of the San Jose Mercury News:
"You can't look at the struggles of a team like Auburn and say, 'They did this or that.' Every week is new. We need to take the attitude that this is what we do, and we need to do it ... Now, we know we can do it. Last year, some guys were saying before the game, 'It's Auburn!' No one will come out skittish or scared this time.
"
Head coach Ron Caragher on facing Auburn, per Wilner:
"We've been there and done that. So now let's step it up a notch and see how we can perform on a higher level.
"
Quarterback Joe Gray on his bounce-back performance against Fresno State, per San Jose State:
"It was a long week of preparation, and our team felt good about the scheme. The offensive line was great. We did a great job of staying even kilter on both sides of the ball. When we do that, we know good things will come.
"
Auburn
Head coach Gus Malzahn on the Tigers' 2-2 start, per quotes released by Auburn:
"We should be disappointed, but we’re going to get better. Everybody kind of sees these preseason rankings and all that. It doesn’t mean anything until about halfway through. You can see we got a bunch of young guys, a bunch of inexperienced guys, and we got a chance to grow, and that’s what we are doing. We’re going to take this thing one game at a time, and we are going to get better, I promise you that. We will see what happens. We got beat tonight and we don’t feel great, but our kids competed, and from a coaches’ standpoint we know we can get better.
"
Quarterback Sean White on rebounding from back-to-back losses:
"We’re fine. We’ve got a lot of good guys on the team and a lot of hard workers. Nobody has quit. I’ll tell you that right now. Nobody has quit on this season or anything like that. We’re ready to get back tomorrow to practice, watch the film, fix what we did wrong and get ready for San Jose State.
"
Cornerback Jonathan Jones on focusing on San Jose State:
"We just have to get better. We got a game next week and we are going to get back on the field tomorrow and look forward to San Jose State next week. We will improve from there and come out next week and try to correct things and make us better. We can’t focus on the games down the road, but the one right now. We’ve got San Jose State next and we’ve got to focus to beat them.
"
Prediction
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Although Auburn shockingly didn't score a single offensive touchdown against a Mississippi State defense that had to replace a lot of starters from last season, I don't expect a repeat performance against San Jose State.
With the exception of a dysfunctional Fresno State team, San Jose State's defense has been gashed multiple times on the ground by quality opponents. If Malzahn goes with a ground-based game plan for Saturday, things should start to open up for White and the rest of the offense.
Defensively, Auburn needs to repeat last weekend's success against the run against Ervin, who is on fire right now when it comes to creating big plays. The Borges offense can be tricky, and the Spartans have momentum from a near-perfect rivalry performance against Fresno State.
Auburn hasn't covered the spread in its last nine games, and I think 20 points is too much to give the Tigers against a SJSU team that has experience in Jordan-Hare Stadium and has given opponents early trouble away from home.
The Tigers start to find more explosiveness on the ground and consistency on the defensive side of the ball, but it's not enough to blow out these Spartans. While the offense puts together its best performance of the season in White's second start, Auburn only wins by two scores.
Prediction: Auburn 34, San Jose State 21
Unless otherwise noted, stats courtesy of CFBStats.com.
Justin Ferguson is a college football writer at Bleacher Report. You can follow him on Twitter @JFergusonBR.
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