Texas Longhorns vs. TCU Horned Frogs Complete Game Preview

Trying to avoid a third straight loss, the Texas Longhorns travel to No. 4 TCU on Saturday in hopes of pulling off a big-time upset.

Both the Longhorns and Horned Frogs found themselves in similar situations in their Big 12 debuts. Each highly competitive game came down to the wire, with the entire narrative of the season hanging in the balance.

The difference is Gary Patterson's squad got it done. With under 30 seconds to go, Aaron Green bailed out Trevone Boykin with a diving touchdown catch off a deflection, keeping the Horned Frogs' early College Football Playoff hopes alive.

Texas, on the other hand, botched its second straight shot at overtime against a talented team. One week after a missed extra point cost the Longhorns against Cal, punter Michael Dickson fumbled a snap that allowed Oklahoma State to chip in the game-winning field goal.

It's been a brutal sequence for Charlie Strong and his team, who have yet to play a team that's lost. The Horns have found their quarterback in Jerrod Heard, but the team's inexperience has been a tragic flaw thus far.

Can the Horns finally get it right in one of the nation's most unforgiving environments? Or will TCU stomp out yet another upset attempt?

When Texas Has the Ball

Now three games into the Heard era, it's pretty clear what Texas wants to do on offense. The question is whether the Horns can get it done if one of their top linemen sits.

With Heard at the helm, the Longhorns have gone to a full-fledged spread attack. As evidenced by Heard's 10.9 yards per attempt (No. 2 in the nation, per cfbstats.com), they want to push the ball down the field and gets their athletes, namely Heard himself, into space.

That approach has worked well for the Horns, who had two touchdowns called back against Oklahoma State. Well, at least until Kent Perkins came out of the game.

With the right tackle out of the game, the Cowboys absolutely teed off on Heard for five sacks, including two on the final drive. The combination of Marcus Hutchins and Tristan Nickelson was simply no match for OSU's talented defensive ends.

Texas experienced similar results last season when Perkins went down against Kansas State. He left early in the first quarter, and the Horns were shut out 23-0 and finished with 90 rushing yards on the day.

Per Strong, Perkins is now considered day-to-day. If he misses this one, it might be enough for the TCU defense to get back on track.

As SB Nation's Kevin Trahan notes, Patterson's unit has been ravaged by injuries, attrition and a suspension. In its thrilling win over Texas Tech, safety Derrick Kindred was the only starter remaining from last season's Peach Bowl.

The Horned Frogs are still getting into the backfield with 10 sacks, but missed tackles and lapses in coverage have been a real problem. As Heard and the Horns showed us against Cal, it doesn't take much for them to make a big play. 

How Patterson addresses that will define the direction of this game.

Tony Gutierrez/Associated Press

When TCU Has the Ball

Patterson may be known for his defense, but it's his offense that will carry this team through the early part of the season.

Since moving to a spread attack last season, the Horned Frogs have averaged an incredible 47.5 points and 557.4 yards per game. Boykin has been the engineer of the offensive renaissance, accounting for 6,268 yards of offense and 57 touchdowns since the start of the 2014 season.

Though this season, Boykin's sharing the spotlight. Receiver Josh Doctson went bonkers against the Red Raiders, reeling in 18 passes for 267 yards and three touchdowns, while the tailback Green is enjoying a breakout of his own.

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#TCU WR Josh Doctson caught 18 passes for a school-record 267 yds & 3 TDs & is the Walter Camp National Offensive Player of the Week

— Bruce Feldman (@BruceFeldmanCFB) September 27, 2015"

A week ago, you might have thought this group could put up 100 on the Longhorns. Strong's team had given up 4.8 yards per carry heading into last week's matchup with Oklahoma State and was offering very little resistance on the back end to boot.

But the Longhorns buckled down against the Pokes, harassing Mason Rudolph into three turnovers, including two that were returned for touchdowns.

The turnaround was sparked by the resurgence of Hassan Ridgeway (more on him later) and the insertion of freshmen corners Holton Hill, Kris Boyd and Davante Davis. Speaking to the media on Monday, Strong said (h/t ASAP Sposts) he really liked the energy they brought to the field:

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You bring in the two freshmen with Boyd and Hill and even Davante, so we played all freshman corners . . . We're just going to continue to play a lot of guys and just let them play, because what happens when they play and you play enough of them, then they play with a lot of energy, and they enjoy being out there, and they'll compete, and then you don't have to worry about just sitting there worrying, hey, can I really depend on that person. Just let them play. They'll get it done.

"

Hill, who returned the interception for the touchdown, has a chance to be an X-factor in this one against Doctson. TCU's beastly 6'3" receiver abused Quandre Diggs last season and has since made his case as the best receiver in the country.

At 6'2", Hill's a much better matchup than Diggs because he can press and then run with Doctson. He can't be expected to handle TCU's top threat by himself, but the young corner has the ability to force Boykin into looking elsewhere. From there, it's up to Texas' pass rush to get after the Horned Frogs' star quarterback.

Key Player for Texas: DT Hassan Ridgeway

Hassan Ridgeway has been mentioned in this spot before, and he showed why last week. Now healthy, he's a game-changer for the Longhorns.

Ridgeway finally broke through against the Pokes, recording his first sack of the season and returning a fumble 34 yards for a touchdown. Most of all, the push he created up the middle finally closed the wide-open running lanes the Horns were giving up. As a result, the defense held OSU to 2.2 yards per carry, by far Texas' best showing of the season.

It took a while, but this the Ridgeway we expected all offseason. Now that he's worked his way back into shape, Strong is really impressed with what he's seeing:

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What happened the first two [games] is just during the preseason camp he was just working back getting into shape and had a couple of nagging injuries. But then you watch him go out there and play this past week against Oklahoma State and had just a great game.

"

As Texas' best defensive lineman, Ridgeway will have to keep it up if the Horns have any chance of slowing down the Horned Frogs.

Key Player for TCU: DE Josh Carraway

In a game where we should see a ton of points, the team that gets the most from its defense will have the edge. For TCU, that means Josh Carraway has to come up big.

Oklahoma State had success spying, blitzing and mixing up coverages against Heard. But this TCU defense is much less experienced than what Mike Gundy has at his disposal. If Patterson asks too much of his guys, it could just as easily expose this team to the big play.

Given Texas' issues at tackle, the best course of action would be to try to turn Carraway loose. Even if Perkins plays, he'll be on a bad knee ,and lateral movement has never been his strong suit at 325 pounds.

And should Carraway get to match up with Hutchins or Nickelson, he's going to have a field day getting hits on Heard.

Prediction: TCU 35, Texas 31

The Horned Frogs aren't 18.5 points (per OddsShark.com) better than Texas right now, but there's no reason to believe Boykin will drop this one at home.

Assuming at this stage that Perkins can play, the Longhorns are more than capable of moving the ball on this TCU defense. The back seven is young and inexperienced, while Heard's just two weeks removed from a 527-yard performance. He'll bounce back, as will the rest of an offense that had two touchdowns called back last week.

Still, this is TCU's offense at home. The Horned Frogs have won their last nine games at Amon G. Carter Stadium, averaging over 51 points per game in those victories.

Texas' young offense will continue to fight and show improvement, but it'll be another tough loss for Strong's team.

Unless otherwise noted, all stats and information courtesy of TexasSports.com and GoFrogs.com.