Boom or Bust? Bold Predictions for the Top NBA Offseason Acquisitions
This is the time of the year when NBA head coaches sit down in their general managers' offices, look at the depth chart and realize they're married to that roster.
For better or worse, coaches have to figure out how to help their players, even the disobedient or deficient ones, exceed expectations.
It's overly simplistic to assume respected coaches will just get the job done: Look at the trouble highly respected Dallas Mavericks head coach Rick Carlisle's endured with Rajon Rondo last season. And Paul Pierce looks like the kind of competitor and leader who wouldn't need much from a journeyman such as Washington Wizards head coach Randy Wittman, but Wittman preserving Pierce's health in the regular season and unleashing him at power forward in the playoffs keyed Pierce's brilliant spring.
Training camp isn't usually critical for NBA teams that know how they want to play, but immediately after new players arrive, it can be telling what roles will or will not be available regardless of the offseason optimism.
With coaches having drawn up what progress they hope to get out of training camp practice plans, it's a good time to project which newcomers will fare better or worse than we assume today in their new marriages.
Let's break down five of the best "betters" and five of the worst "worses" for the coming season…
Better
Kristaps Porzingis, New York Knicks
The coming month of preseason could be more exciting than anything the Knicks experienced in Phil Jackson's first regular season, because Porzingis is going to assert himself in ways that even beaten-down, jaded Knicks fans will have to find inspiring.
Of course, there will be epic novelty in watching a 7'1" dude rain in divine threes, but Porzingis' defense is better than people think after playing against legit pros in Spain. Expect the buzz in New York to spread when the rookie quickly proves worthy of the starting power forward position over Derrick Williams. There's real reason to believe the Knicks will get exciting production at both ends from Porzingis in his first year with Carmelo Anthony's offense and Robin Lopez's defense very convenient crutches to lean on.
Worse
LaMarcus Aldridge, San Antonio Spurs
The assumption is that Gregg Popovich will figure it out, as usual. It'll nonetheless be challenging for Aldridge to adapt his left-side, mid-post-anchor approach to blend with the beautiful ball-movement offense Popovich has played the past five years.
And even if Tim Duncan is happy to let Aldridge have all his individual glory, let's be clear that Aldridge isn't nearly the passer out of double-teams or the screen-setter that Duncan was and still is.
The Spurs might well put it all together for another title, but considering how heralded they were all offseason, some letdown is coming. Also worth noting: Aldridge has never been a first-team All-NBA player in nine seasons and actually sold himself high after coming off his lone second-team All-NBA honor last season.
Sure, Aldridge was the gem of free agency, and the Spurs were brilliant in getting him without losing their other key pieces, but let's not go too far over the moon.
Better
Greg Monroe, Milwaukee Bucks
Jason Kidd has surprised a lot of people with how good of a coach he is. Monroe's fit with the Bucks, though, is so ideal that Kidd could regress to his drink-spilling, unsteady days in Brooklyn and still have no problem integrating the former Pistons big man.
Monroe just spent last season out of position, standing there and jealously staring at Andre Drummond rooted in the Pistons' middle while he was collecting a cut-rate salary just so he could become an unrestricted free agent. Monroe is going to be deeply invested and thrilled to be in his proper center position for Milwaukee, whom he was able to join of his own choosing and which covers his weaknesses wonderfully.
Monroe isn't an eye-popping athlete, but he's quite smooth for a big man and certainly is going to be effective running the floor with the other Bucks or getting early offense. Don't be surprised, either, when he shows off some passing flair with all these cutting, soaring athletes around him. Even dating back to his days at Georgetown, Monroe has had a knack for creating shots for others.
Worse
Matt Barnes, Memphis Grizzlies
You know by now that Barnes is a uniquely gritty player who adds toughness to whatever team he joins. So it's easy to fall into the trap that Barnes' move to the blue-collar Grizzlies is a perfect marriage.
Again, however, Barnes' value is adding toughness to a team. So his value is when he gives a team something it lacks. Even then, though, his unchecked intensity is often a distraction.
Frankly, Brandan Wright, the Grizzlies' other veteran addition, is a far better bet as an above-the-rim rarity in Memphis to contribute much more than Barnes does.
Better
Rajon Rondo, Sacramento Kings
The red flags with Rondo are absolutely real. But this is a situation where it will not be difficult for him to have reasonable success.
George Karl will have an unstructured offense that is going to look very good with Rondo rebounding and running right away, then applying a court vision that has always been extraordinary.
There will be triple-doubles. There will be highlight-reel dealing to DeMarcus Cousins, Rudy Gay and the insanely explosive Ben McLemore.
There will be some redemption found in Sacramento for a more motivated Rondo.
Worse
Justise Winslow, Miami Heat
When a guy is pegged to be a top-five pick and then goes No. 10 to a fellow by the name of Pat Riley, you're going to get the obligatory story: steal of the draft! The reality is, however, it's nearly impossible to envision Winslow being a meaningful part of the Heat's rotation this coming season.
One reason is that Riley is old school when it comes to trusting rookies. Heat coach Erik Spoelstra is far more intent on producing a contender in the East for Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh. Gerald Green's three-point shot is something the Heat will value, and even Josh McRoberts, whose knee injury cost him almost his whole first Miami season, figures to be more of a second-unit playmaker.
Spoelstra has a camp challenge ahead of him just to get a sense of which position Winslow can play after he was a power forward at Duke. He might be undersized even for an NBA small forward and lacks the natural shot creation of a 2-guard.
Better
Marcus Morris, Detroit Pistons
While Markieff stands by his trade demand from the Suns, Marcus has rightly moved on from the disappointment of being split from his twin brother. Marcus has good reason to accent the positive, because from a career standpoint, Markieff is the one who often left Marcus in the shadows during their time in Phoenix.
A new land of independence awaits Marcus, one in which Pistons coach Stan Van Gundy sees all sorts of potential in him. Morris has the build and tenacity to be a plus wing defender. He'll hit plenty of threes in the Van Gundy four-out system.
And Morris will have little trouble in camp showing how much more he can offer right now than eighth overall pick Stanley Johnson as the Pistons' starting small forward.
Worse
David Lee, Boston Celtics
This was one of the most roundly applauded offseason transactions: the Warriors rewarding a good, demoted soldier from their title team by finding him a new Boston home where he was wanted and has the chance to play and score more again.
It's understandable to play up the possibilities, because Lee is a two-time All-Star, the Celtics basically got him for free and it's perfectly understandable that a guy couldn't play ahead of the mighty Draymond Green.
But Brad Stevens is a smart guy, and if he realizes that Lee's inability to space the floor on offense and do pretty much anything on defense fails to give Boston a better chance to win, how long will he indulge it with Lee, 32, carrying an expiring contract and no future with a youth-laden club?
Better
Nicolas Batum, Charlotte Hornets
This is another relationship where the NBA matchmakers did well. The Hornets needed a true all-around player to spark an offense too reliant on the individual play of Al Jefferson or Kemba Walker, and Batum is just that.
He will pile up the assists individually and give the Hornets just the flow as a team they never found with ball-stopping Lance Stephenson (who will be a far better fit trying to stay in his lane with the Clippers). Batum is also just 26, so he has a ton of basketball left in him, and the Hornets are well-positioned to make him feel like this should be his home beyond free agency a year from now.
Worse
Wesley Matthews, Dallas Mavericks
Character does count, so it's hard to condemn Mark Cuban for believing so deeply in Matthews. But max-dollars deeply? For a team that theoretically could be better off losing enough to keep its top-seven protected draft pick from going to Boston anyway?
Total respect to the undrafted Matthews, who turns 29 in mid-October, for the career he has crafted via his truly superior attitude. But the overall medical analytics on "Iron Man" are deeply worrisome. Guys with the fortitude to play insanely hard or despite being hurt do eventually tend to break down, and Matthews will have to beat the odds to stay healthy—under a greater burden—even after he makes it back from his Achilles rupture.
Kevin Ding is an NBA senior writer for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter, @KevinDing.
