Texas A&M vs. Nevada Complete Game Preview
Texas A&M draws Nevada, one of the better programs in the Mountain West Conference, in its final tuneup before SEC play.
The Aggies made impressive work of Ball State in Week 2, winning 56-23 in a game more lopsided than the final score indicates. They should theoretically do the same to the Wolfpack, who last week lost 44-20 on their home field to Arizona.
But Nevada is a historically competitive mid-major that will give Kevin Sumlin's team a test. It's a lower level of competition than the Aggies saw against Arizona State and a much lower level than they'll see in the SEC West, but it's not like the Wolfpack are pushovers.
A&M better show up as ready as it did in Week 2.
Otherwise, it's asking for trouble.
Date: Saturday, September 19
Time: Noon ET
Location: Kyle Field; College Station, Texas
TV: SEC Network
Line: Texas A&M -34.5, according to Odds Shark
Texas A&M Keys to Victory
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Follow Arizona's Blueprint
Arizona made Nevada look small in the trenches, rushing 43 times for 301 yards (7.0 YPC). Sophomore tailback Nick Wilson took 21 carries for 194 yards, and backup quarterback Jerrard Randall, who replaced Anu Solomon in garbage time, had a 57-yard TD run.
Rich Rodriguez runs a different offense than Kevin Sumlin, but at the very least their styles are similar. Both coaches like to work from the shotgun, play at a high tempo and establish zone-read runs. Sumlin will recognize a good deal of what Arizona used to beat the Wolfpack.
In turn, Texas A&M should follow the Wildcats' blueprint and bully Nevada with the running game. Tra Carson is more of a power back than Wilson, but backups Brice Dolezal and Kwame Etwi looked good against Ball State and might find a role in the game plan. Kyler Murray could also see the field and burn Nevada for a big play a la Randall.
Keep Last Week's Focus
Texas A&M made quick work of Ball State, scoring 42 consecutive points and racing out to a 49-3 halftime lead.
That's the way superior teams should look against inferior ones, and in theory there's no reason to think the Aggies will have a letdown. But last week's game was the home-opener and debut of Kyle Field's renovations, so there's a chance it was also just a special occasion.
Can A&M keep last week's laser-sharp focus against a team that, while still much worse than the Aggies, is a small step up in competition? Nevada is deceptively competitive and has already played a ranked opponent; it knows what to expect and what it's up against.
A&M cannot get caught looking ahead to next week's SEC opener against Arkansas. That's the only realistic way it loses this game.
Nevada Keys to Victory
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Hang Around Early
Ball State went down early last weekend, and soon after things got slightly out of hand, they got extremely out of hand.
Nevada doesn't need to throw the first punch or land the first haymaker; it needs to avoid what happened to Ball State and hang around as long as possible. The longer it survives the onslaught, the more tense and mistake-prone this game becomes.
One major way to accomplish this is by converting third downs. Turning one set of three plays into another set of three plays keeps A&M's offense off the field as long as possible and gives Nevada's defense a chance to rest. Ball State went 0-of-8 on first-half third downs, and look how that worked out.
Nevada can also hang around by improving its red-zone defense. Arizona scored touchdowns on five of six red-zone trips last weekend, while A&M scored touchdowns on five of six first-half drives. Turning two scoring opportunities into field goals instead of touchdowns would cost A&M six points and essentially function as a turnover.
Oh, and Nevada could use some turnovers.
Don't Get Burned by Christian Kirk
No player presents a bigger threat to the proposed game plan above (hang around early) than true freshman Christian Kirk.
Kirk burned Arizona State for a punt-return touchdown and a long receiving touchdown, and then he posted another long punt return against Ball State. The 5-star recruit has been as good as—no, better than—advertised in open space and might already be the Aggies' best playmaker.
Nothing will deflate Nevada's confidence and ability to hang around more than a huge return or screen pass turned into a touchdown. The Wolfpack need to circle Kirk on every defensive play, kick the ball away from him when possible and generally do their best to prevent him from breaking this game open.
If he does, there's a slippery slope.
Texas A&M Players to Watch
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Offensive Line
The Aggies offensive line has played well for stretches, but on the whole it's looked weaker than Sumlin's previous units. Ball State recorded four sacks on Saturday, and Arizona State recorded three in Week 1. The Aggies now rank No. 118 in the country in sacks allowed, which is why Bleacher Report's Barrett Sallee called pass protection their biggest area for improvement. Let's see if the O-line can fix some things on Saturday.
DT Daylon Mack
Daylon Mack is compulsively watchable, which is rare for a defensive tackle. The 6'1", 335-pound freshman has recorded one tackle for loss in each of his first two games, and last week he also chased a running back down from behind. (Did we mention he weighs 335 pounds!)
Mack will prove instrumental for a defense that looks better against the run but still showed holes on Ball State's first possession. He needs to keep slowly improving so he can dominate when the Aggies need him most.
WR Speedy Noil
Speedy Noil is trying to find his rhythm, and even though Kirk looks incredible, the Aggies still need Noil to find it. The true sophomore caught three passes for 38 yards against Ball State, but two of those catches came from Murray when the outcome was already decided.
He's done well at some of the little things with A&M's first-team offense, but he's yet to make the impact most expected after a promising freshman year. If he and Kyle Allen can connect a few times, it would cool a few nerves before the Aggies open conference play.
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Nevada Players to Watch
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P Alex Boy
Punter Alex Boy was one of two Nevada players named to a Preseason All-Mountain West team by conference media. He averaged 44.3 yards per punt last season, which helped Nevada finish with a top-50 punt-return efficiency defense, according to SB Nation's Bill Connelly.
His distance and directional kicking will prove important against Texas A&M's return unit, especially after a week in which he posted career highs for longest punt (63 yards), punts over 50 yards (three) and total punt yards (376). He's the first line of defense against Kirk making a big play on special teams.
RB Don Jackson
Senior Don Jackson is a powerful running back who needs to have a big game on Saturday. Nevada gave him 24 carries against Arizona, but he averaged only 3.79 yards per attempt and didn't break a single 20-yard run. Ball State's only first-half scoring drive against the Aggies included a pair of 20-yard runs by tailback Darian Green. Jackson needs at least that many to keep Nevada close.
DE Ian Seau
Ian Seau led Nevada with eight sacks last season and posted his first sack of this year against Arizona. He's an experienced pass-rusher with decent size (6'3", 250 lbs) whom Chris Murray of the Reno Gazette-Journal has called "a legit NFL prospect." If Nevada is going to exploit the Aggies' pass protection—one of the few places that opponents have been able to exploit them—Seau will be a big reason why.
What They're Saying
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Texas A&M
Sumlin on Kyle Field's renovations, per Brandon Wheeland of the Dallas Morning News:
"It's hard to make Kyle Field better, but we did the impossible. It's a great fan experience, being closer to the field. The noise is awesome. It's a great players experience. It was really neat to run out there the first time and I thought that energy level showed early.
It's good to be at home and have everything done now. We appreciate it as a football team to be able to play in the finest college football facility in the world; we don't take that for granted.
"
Sumlin on cornerback De'Vante Harris, who returned an interception for a touchdown against Ball State, per the same source:
"I asked him after he had scored since he's been here and he said it's the first time he's scored since high school. He really took the offseason seriously this year. He needs to be good, he's played a lot of snaps. I think physically he can handle it and mentally he knows a lot. I think [defensive coordinator John Chavis' style of play] plays right to his strengths.
A pick-six for us is a big deal and of all the snaps he's played, that was a big deal for him too.
"
Nevada
Head coach Brian Polian on losing his temper and receiving a pair of unsportsmanlike conduct penalties against Arizona, per Chris Murray:
"The two penalties I received tonight, I own them completed. I apologized to the team. I let the team down tonight. It’s my job to keep my composure. I do want to state that neither time did I use abusive language.
"
More from Polian on his temper, again per Murray, this time from an article titled "Is Polian a Raving Lunatic or Simply a Passionate Coach?":
"The easy story right now is, "I’m a hot head," and I guess I can understand that and tune it out. But I’m incredibly passionate about this job and incredibly passionate about our young people.
I don’t apologize for my passion or my energy. I have to do a better job of focusing it.
"
Prediction
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A letdown game from Texas A&M would be natural.
That doesn't mean the team is unprepared or that Sumlin will do a bad job waking it up. It's just hard to get excited for Nevada after a huge game against Arizona State and a huge moment debuting the stadium renovations. It's even harder when peeking with one eye toward the SEC opener against Arkansas.
The outcome of this game won't be in doubt—at least not past the first half—but don't expect a drubbing as thorough as last week's Ball State game. The Wolfpack are better than the Cardinals, and they get A&M in a much better spot.
The Aggies might lead by 35 at some point, but that's a big number to cover against a decent opponent. Especially after Ball State narrowed the final margin in garbage time last weekend, this feels like it could end with a backdoor cover.
Prediction: Texas A&M 41, Nevada 10
Note: All recruiting info refers to 247Sports' composite rankings.
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