Colts vs. Bills: What's the Game Plan for Buffalo?

The Buffalo Bills host the Indianapolis Colts on Sunday, in a Week 1 matchup of last year’s second-best defense and sixth-best offense. I previewed the game earlier this week; in this piece, I discuss the offensive and defensive strategies and matchups most vital to a Buffalo victory. 

Offensive Game Plan:

There are two big points here, both of them obvious and both absolutely critical for this Bills squad. 

First, Buffalo needs to play smart. This is a pithy platitude, to be sure, but smart decision-making—especially from the coaching staff—is vital for a team whose starting quarterback has thrown just 35 passes in his career. 

Tyrod Taylor won the starting QB job after a lengthy competition with Matt Cassel and EJ Manuel. By all accounts, Taylor had an impressive preseason: He demonstrated unexpected poise in the pocket, extended plays under pressure and routinely ran for meaningful yardage. But he’s inheriting a so-so offensive line, and is under a fair amount of pressure to break the Bills’ 16-year playoff drought. 

So, the Bills need to do the little things well on offense.

They can’t go for risky fourth-down conversions. They must manage the field-position battle. They need to use their first-half timeouts, either to keep the Indy offense off the field or to give Taylor as many looks as possible. They cannot ask Taylor to thread passes through double coverage, and they need him to be comfortable throwing the ball away when necessary. Preventing Taylor from making risky decisions is the first step to victory, particularly in Week 1. 

Second, the Bills need to establish their running game early. LeSean McCoy has battled hamstring issues throughout the preseason, but he’s the team’s most important offseason acquisition and should be good to go on Sunday. 

The Bills ranked 25th in the NFL last year in terms of rushing offense, they have an inexperienced starting quarterback and McCoy (when healthy) is arguably the league’s best running back. Indianapolis had the NFL’s 23rd-best defensive line last year, per Football Outsiders, and Buffalo needs to force the Colts into a run-centric defensive game plan if Taylor is to have any ease in the pocket. 

Luckily for the Bills, McCoy—along with wideouts Sammy Watkins and Percy Harvin—should be healthy enough to play Sunday, as ESPN's Mike Rodak reported: 

Defensive Game Plan

Buffalo defensive tackle Marcell Dareus, who just earned himself a seven-year, $108 million contract, is suspended for this year’s opener. His absence will be felt. But the Bills defense is easily the key to victory on Sunday. 

On one hand, the Bills have a fearsome defensive line, even sans Dareus. Mario Williams, Jerry Hughes and Kyle Williams all have the ability to pressure quarterbacks and force poor decisions. And Corbin Bryant, a third-year defensive tackle, had a brilliant preseason. They boast an extremely talented—and highly paid—defensive front. Christopher Fenton posed a question based upon just how valuable one would consider the Bills' defensive line:

"

What would you rather have: the economy of a small tropical island, or the Bills defensive line? https://t.co/763F4Nd53c

— Christopher Fenton (@christophfenton) September 10, 2015"

On the other hand, Colts quarterback Andrew Luck was brilliant facing the blitz last year. As has been widely reported, Luck threw 18 touchdowns and just three interceptions against blitzes in 2014, meaning Buffalo head coach Rex Ryan must be discerning with his pass-rush decisions.

As with Tom Brady or Peyton Manning, teams have the most success against Luck when they knock him around. Despite his success in San Francisco, Bills fans shouldn’t be anywhere near as worried about Frank Gore and the Indy running game as Luck and the passing attack.

In short, Buffalo needs to accomplish two things on defense to win. First, they must pressure Luck. One interception, one errant toss in the red zone—that could easily be the difference in the game. And second, the Bills secondary must focus on T.Y. Hilton, Luck’s top target. Buffalo can live with productive outings from Gore and Colts’ WR Andre Johnson; the Bills cannot win if Hilton finds gaps in their secondary. 

Key Matchup

There are any number of important battles to watch on Sunday: Tyrod Taylor and the Indy secondary; Buffalo’s defensive line versus the Colts’ offensive line; Bills cornerback Ronald Darby and whomever he matches up with; Gore versus McCoy. These and others will be essential to any victory on Sunday afternoon. 

But perhaps the most important involves Buffalo receiver Sammy Watkins. Watkins was a first-round draft pick in 2013 and is a popular choice for a breakout season. With an untried quarterback like Taylor, the Bills need to make things as easy as possible on offense; after a healthy McCoy, Watkins is easily the team’s most talented offensive weapon. 

The Colts will likely start Greg Toler and Vontae Davis at cornerback, along with safeties Mike Adams and Dwight Lowery. Lowery played for Atlanta last year, but the 2014 Colts were the No. 12 passing defense in the NFL, per ESPN.com. Kevin Bowen of Colts.com discussed the possibility of Davis "shadowing" Watkins in Sunday's game:

As with Buffalo’s blitzing strategy, Watkins’ success here is something of a zero-sum game. If the Bills pressure Luck and force him into suboptimal throws, that’s a huge win for Buffalo; if the Bills blitz Luck at inopportune times, they’re vulnerable to huge chunks of yardage.

Similarly, if Watkins runs tight routes and creates space in the Indy secondary, that takes enormous pressure off Taylor. But if Watkins struggles all night—particularly given the health issues facing fellow wideouts—it could be a rough debut for Taylor and his squad. 

Prediction

The Indianapolis Colts can beat anyone, purely because of their quarterback. Luck is strong, accurate and surprisingly nimble; Barring injury, he’s an MVP candidate for the next decade.

He simply makes them that good. He has Hilton (a likely top-10 receiver), Johnson (a probable Hall of Famer) and Gore (1,100-plus rushing yards in each of the past four seasons). And Philip Dorsett, the Colts’ first-round draft pick this year, could quickly blossom into a real NFL weapon. 

But the Bills can beat anyone too—because of their defense. Darby is the biggest hole in their defensive lineup, and he was frankly not that bad in the preseason. He was inconsistent, and looked lost at times, but at other times he looked excellent. Either way his presence should not unravel what could certainly be the NFL’s best defense in 2015. 

For Buffalo, the game hinges mostly on two things: their defensive line and the play of Taylor. That may seem obvious, because a good pass rush and a good quarterback have been important to every football team ever.

But in this situation, another way of putting it would be to say the Bills will win if their coaching staff wins: If Rex Ryan and Co. are smart about rushing Luck, and if they avoid asking too much of their signal-caller, they can trust their defensive group to hold down the fort. 

Final Score: Bills 23, Colts 17