
What Happens If Jim Harbaugh Starts 0-2 at Michigan?
The most anticipated home debut of the 2015 college football season won't even be the biggest event in the state of Michigan on Saturday.
Jim Harbaugh will coach his first game for Michigan in the Big House against Oregon State. It'll be the first time Harbaugh has been on the Wolverines' home sideline since 1986, his senior year as the program's quarterback. What's at stake? Preventing an 0-2 start by beating a Beavers team that, in Week 1, had trouble putting away FCS Weber State.
Meanwhile, about an hour or so northwest in East Lansing, Michigan State will host Oregon in a top-10 matchup meriting national attention and College Football Playoff discussions. Week 2 might be light on marquee games, but Oregon-Michigan State is more than worthy of getting the spotlight on ESPN's "College GameDay."
Therein lies the biggest difference between Michigan and Michigan State. One is relevant because of its head coach. The other is relevant because it's a top-10 team. One of those situations can remain a talking point for only so long. The other has staying power.
In short, Harbaugh has to win to make Michigan truly relevant again. It always has been and always will be that simple. He will win eventually, or so the general belief goes. How long it's expected to take, though, could depend on the Oregon State game.
"There's a bad taste in our mouth when you lose a football game," Harbaugh said via Larry Lage of the Associated Press (h/t USA TODAY). "There's only one mouthwash for that, and that is winning a football game."
But what if Harbaugh, the miracle worker who turned Stanford into a national power and the San Francisco 49ers into a Super Bowl contender, starts 0-2?
Would there be panic? Probably some. A loss would mean Michigan might be beyond repair for 2015.
Oregon State is nowhere near the toughest team on Michigan's schedule, not with BYU, Michigan State, Minnesota, Penn State, Ohio State and even Northwestern remaining. Few, if anyone, expected the Wolverines to make a Big Ten East title run in Year One under Harbaugh, but getting to a bowl game and securing an extra set of practices is both a reasonable and necessary goal. To achieve that, Michigan has to win games it's expected to win (or can win). As of Friday, Michigan is a two-touchdown favorite against the Beavers, according to OddsShark.com. If Michigan can't win games like these, what can it win?
Would there be a call for a change at quarterback? It depends on whether Jake Rudock shows any improvement from the Utah game in which he threw three picks. Nick Baumgardner of MLive.com graded out Rudock side-by-side with Oregon State quarterback Seth Collins and gave Rudock the edge. In fact, Baumgardner gave Michigan the advantage in many of the position-by-position breakdowns.
Would an 0-2 start cause people to question Harbaugh, though? Absolutely not. As desperate as Michigan's fanbase is for success, it also knows what it has on the sideline and that the program instantly got better the moment Harbaugh was hired. It would be extreme to call Year One a "throwaway season," but this also isn't really Harbaugh's team yet. The second recruiting class and season—2016, in this case—is when you begin to get a more accurate judgment of where things are headed.
An 0-2 start would be uncharted territory for Harbaugh, however. Two consecutive losses to open a season has never happened in the 11 full years Harbaugh has been a head coach. For what it's worth, the consensus is that Michigan will win on Saturday. All of ESPN.com's staff, for example, is picking the Wolverines.
The offense may be in need of an overhaul, but Michigan's defense is in a good place. And the cupboard is not completely bare. History shows Harbaugh is at his best from Week 1 to Week 2, and Oregon State is certainly beatable. Going 0-2 is possible, but the circumstances set up nicely for Harbaugh's Wolverines.
Take it where you can get it. For Michigan, there will be more misery before there is none. That's just the state of the program. That's why a win over Oregon State, however routine it should be, would be so important. Even if for a day, it gives Michigan's fanbase a break from the torture.
Ben Kercheval is a lead writer for college football. All quotes are cited unless obtained firsthand.
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