New Orleans Saints vs. Arizona Cardinals Betting Odds, Analysis, NFL Pick

The New Orleans Saints stumbled through last season, finishing with a losing record and missing the playoffs, but the team actually won its last four road games outright, going 3-1 against the spread. However, the Saints begin this season in a tough spot when they take on the Cardinals in Glendale, Arizona, Sunday afternoon.

Point spread: Cardinals opened as three-point favorites; the total was 48 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark. (Line updates and matchup report)

NFL pick, via Odds Shark computer: 27.6-25.1 Cardinals

Why the Saints can cover the spread

After going 7-9 and missing the playoffs last year, the Saints are looking for a bounce-back effort this season. And while they parted ways with some key people this offseason, they still have a chance to contend in the NFC South.

New Orleans lost two games in overtime last season, and four losses came by a total of nine points, so the Saints were essentially two or three plays away from winning the division. New Orleans led the league in total offense last season, and while the team also ranked 31st in total defense, it used two of the top 44 picks in the 2015 draft on linebackers.

The Saints should still be able to score with the best of them; with a little improvement on defense they might also be a good bet.

Why the Cardinals can cover the spread

Arizona started 9-1 last year, but as the absence of starting quarterback Carson Palmer took effect, the Cardinals went 2-4 from there, made the playoffs and lost the Wild Card Game at Carolina with their third-string quarterback.

Palmer is now back in the saddle, and hopes are high in Arizona heading into this season. Arizona is 21-11 straight up and 22-9-1 ATS in two seasons under head coach Bruce Arians, and 16-6 SU and 16-5-1 ATS with Palmer starting at quarterback. The Cardinals only ranked 24th in total offense and 31st in rushing last season, but those rankings will improve with a full season of a healthy Palmer and improvement along the offensive line.

Meanwhile, the defense, while not as tough as it was in 2013, limited nine opponents to 17 points or less last year. Finally, Arizona has created a solid home-field advantage under Arians, going 13-3 SU and 11-4-1 ATS at University of Phoenix Stadium.

Smart pick

The Cardinals look like a team on the rise, while the Saints look like a team on the decline. The smart money in this spot resides with Arizona.

Betting trends

The Saints are 4-0 SU in their last four games on the road.

The Saints are 2-6 ATS in their last eight games.

The Cardinals are 5-2 SU and ATS in their last seven games as home underdogs.

All point spread and lines data courtesy of Odds Shark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates and get the free odds tracker app.