Seattle Seahawks vs. St. Louis Rams Betting Odds, Analysis, NFL Pick

The Seattle Seahawks are 7-3 against division-rival St. Louis under head coach Pete Carroll, but the Rams are 5-5 against the spread during that span, and 4-2 ATS over the last six meetings. So Seattle backers shouldn't expect a walk in the park when the Seahawks visit St. Louis Sunday afternoon.

Point spread: Seahawks opened as 4.5-point favorites; the total was 44 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark. (Line updates and matchup report.)

NFL pick, via Odds Shark computer: 24.6-19.3 Seahawks

Why the Seahawks Can Cover the Spread

Seattle came within two yards of winning a second consecutive Super Bowl title last year, and the team has its sights set on a return trip for this season. The Seahawks went 12-4 last year, and 10-6 ATS, which is hard to do for a team that is favored by so much so often. In fact, Seattle is 39-21-4 ATS over the last four seasons.

The Seahawks led the league in rushing last year by a wide margin, ranked third against the run, outrushed opponents by 91 yards per game and ranked third in time of possession. That's how you win games and cover spreads in the NFL.

Seattle brings back most of the key ingredients this season, along with the addition of tight end Jimmy Graham, who should provide quarterback Russell Wilson with a great middle-of-the-field option while at the same time opening up the outside routes. And, of course, there's always Beast Mode to run the ball.

Why the Rams Can Cover the Spread

The Rams are coming off a 6-10 campaign last year that was marred by tough losses and poor quarterback play. But they also pulled off victories over both Seattle and Denver, the previous season's Super Bowl contestants. St. Louis got to 6-7 last year, pitching consecutive shutouts against Oakland and Washington, but lost its last three games.

Over the offseason, the Rams finally lost patience with the always-injured Sam Bradford, trading him to Philadelphia for Nick Foles, who is 15-9 as an NFL starter with a career 46-17 touchdown-to-interception ratio.

Also, the Rams upset Seattle at the Edward Jones Dome last season 28-26, using trick plays to score on a punt return and convert a fake punt into a first down that clinched the victory.

Smart Pick

Super Bowl losers have been poor bets over recent seasons, in part because of heightened expectations on the betting lines and in part because of attrition. But Seattle is well-built and should withstand that trend. St. Louis, on the other hand, is still a work in progress under head coach Jeff Fisher, playing under the cloud of relocation. The smart money in this spot lies with the Seahawks, minus the points.

Betting Trends

The Rams are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games in September.

The Seahawks are 7-1 SU and ATS in their last eight games against the NFC West.

The Seahawks are 2-8 SU and ATS in their last 10 games on the road in September.

All point spread and lines data courtesy of Odds Shark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates and get the free odds tracker app.