Week 1 NFL Picks: Predictions and Advice for Opening-Season Vegas Odds

Week 1 of the NFL season is filled with low point spreads and plenty of opportunities for bettors to make some money.

A lack of certainty surrounding the league heading into the first week often keeps the lines low, because in reality, there is still so much to learn about each team. Every year, there are predicted Super Bowl favorites who fall apart in the regular season and vice versa. Smaller lines temper our expectations.

Despite this mindset, there are a number of games that appear to be pretty one-sided heading into the weekend. Here is a look at some of the best bets available, as well as picks against the spread for every game.

Note: All spread info courtesy of OddsShark.com.

Home	Away	Pick ATS*
New England Patriots	Pittsburgh Steelers	PIT (+7.5)
St. Louis Rams	Seattle Seahawks	SEA (-4)
Chicago Bears	Green Bay Packers	GB (-7)
Houston Texans	Kansas City Chiefs	HOU (PK)
New York Jets	Cleveland Browns	CLE (+3)
Washington Redskins	Miami Dolphins	MIA (-4)
Jacksonville Jaguars	Carolina Panthers	JAX (+3)
Buffalo Bills	Indianapolis Colts	IND (-3)
San Diego Chargers	Detroit Lions	SD (-3)
Arizona Cardinals	New Orleans Saints	ARI (-2.5)
Oakland Raiders	Cincinnati Bengals	CIN (-3.5)
Denver Broncos	Baltimore Ravens	DEN (-4.5)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Tennessee Titans	TB (-3)
Dallas Cowboys	New York Giants	NYG (+6)
Atlanta Falcons	Philadelphia Eagles	PHI (-3)
San Francisco 49ers	Minnesota Vikings	MIN (-3)

Best Bets

Miami Dolphins (-4) over Washington Redskins

Wilfredo Lee/Associated Press

This line has grown from 1.5 at opening, and in reality, it could be much bigger. These two organizations are clearly moving in opposite directions as we head into Week 1.

The Miami Dolphins are a young team that is seemingly only getting better with quarterback Ryan Tannehill ready to take the next step in his fourth year. Jon Gruden has high hopes for this squad, via Ben Volin of the Boston Globe:

Tannehill now has a variety of weapons with Jarvis Landry, Greg Jennings, Kenny Stills and, hopefully, a healthy DeVante Parker around him. Against a defense that allowed 8.2 yards per pass last season (31st in the NFL), Tannehill could have a huge game.

Meanwhile, the Redskins have been a model of dysfunction. This didn't change when former Rookie of the Year Robert Griffin III was benched in favor of Kirk Cousins, who, as Aaron Nagler notes, isn't as good as his preseason performances suggest:

Cousins has only a 77.5 quarterback rating in his career with a 2-7 record as a starter. It's hard to imagine this improving in Week 1.

Even receiver DeSean Jackson is not hopeful about the season, according to Zach Baron of GQ. When asked about his team contending, he had a long silence, then added, “Uh…how ’bout I say, uh… Let me see what I can answer to that question....”

Picking against a team with this little confidence seems like the way to go.

Seattle Seahawks (-4) over St. Louis Rams

Stephen Dunn/Getty Images

The Seattle Seahawks will be without Kam Chancellor for the game, who, according to Ian Rapoport of NFL.com, is still in the midst of a holdout. They are also not quite as good on the road, and there are questions about the offensive line.

Despite these issues, Seattle should have little problem moving to 1-0 after this week.

The St. Louis Rams have had some strong performances against the Seahawks in recent years, but Nick Wagoner of ESPN.com notes why the familiarity only goes so far:

Adding a game-changing player like Jimmy Graham to an offense that already has elite talent like Russell Wilson and Marshawn Lynch could make the unit incredibly difficult to stop. This is in addition to a defense that has allowed the fewest points in football in each of the past three seasons. There is more than enough talent to make up for the loss of Chancellor.

It will be even tougher than usual for the Rams to score without a healthy running back. As noted by Jim Thomas of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch, the team has reported injuries to both Tre Mason and Todd Gurley heading into Week 1:

This puts even more pressure on inconsistent quarterback Nick Foles, and the end result might not be pretty.

Philadelphia Eagles (-3) over Atlanta Falcons

This is yet another road favorite, which is always a scary thing in the NFL. However, the Atlanta Falcons aren't exactly feared within the Georgia Dome like they once were.

Matt Ryan and company finished just 3-5 at home last season, equaling the same record from the year before. Things could have been worse in a different division, as the squad was just 1-9 overall in 2014 against teams outside of the putrid NFC South.

There were some improvements in the offseason, but there is still a major issue on the offensive line. Jeff McLane of the Philadelphia Inquirer noted the addition of Jake Long was necessary after a rough preseason:

If the unit struggles into the regular season, playmakers like Julio Jones and Tevin Coleman won't get a chance to showcase their talent.

This won't be an issue for the Philadelphia Eagles, who have plenty of new faces but continue to produce offensively under head coach Chip Kelly. The team scored 36, 40 and 39 points in the first three preseason games, and while this doesn't necessarily translate to regular-season success, it's clear this will be a high-powered attack.

The combination of DeMarco Murray, Ryan Mathews, Darren Sproles, Jordan Matthews, Nelson Agholor and others playing on the fast turf in Atlanta could produce a blowout win.

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