Green Bay Packers vs. Chicago Bears Betting Odds, Analysis, NFL Pick

The Green Bay Packers own the recent rivalry with the Chicago Bears, winning nine of the last 10 meetings outright and going 8-2 against the spread. Green Bay looks to begin what it hopes is a run toward another Super Bowl when it visits the Windy City to take on the Bears on Sunday afternoon at Soldier Field.

Point spread: Packers opened as 3.5-point favorites; the total was 50 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark. (Line updates and matchup report)

NFL pick, via Odds Shark computer: 27.8-21.8 Packers

Why the Packers can cover the spread

The Pack went 12-4 last year, won the NFC North for the fourth season in a row and should have won the NFC Championship Game if not for blowing that game in Seattle.

Green Bay ranked sixth in the league last year in total offense, 11th in rushing, 15th in total defense and 23rd against the run, but some of those defensive numbers came about because Packers opponents were playing catch-up so much of the time.

Green Bay suffered a key loss during the preseason when wide receiver Jordy Nelson blew out a knee, but it just signed former Packer James Jones to replace him. Jones knows the system and his place in it, and he should be able to offset, at least in part, Nelson's absence. And the team still has Aaron Rodgers at quarterback.

Why the Bears can cover the spread

Chicago is coming off a lost season last year but begins anew under new head coach John Fox, who has already taken two different teams to the Super Bowl. And his run-first, tough-defense approach might be just what the Bears need after trying the pass-first, defense-be-damned approach of Marc Trestman.

Fox will re-emphasize the running game, and he's got a horse to ride in running back Matt Forte. Also, quarterback Jay Cutler is probably much more effective throwing the ball 25 times per game rather than 35.

Chicago is a work in progress and as such will be an underdog for a while. But last year, the Bears managed to go 4-4 ATS on the road and 3-2 ATS as dogs of seven points or more.

Smart pick

Fox's approach might be a great fit with the Bears, but it will probably take some time for his systems to take effect. As for this week, Green Bay beat Chicago last year twice by an average score of 46-15, and while the Bears might not lose by 31 points Sunday, odds are they will still lose. The smart betting choice here is with the Packers.

Betting trends

The Packers 9-1 SU in their last 10 games against the Bears.

The Packers are 1-5 ATS in their last six games on the road in September.

The total has gone over in seven of the Bears' last eight games in September.

All point spread and lines data courtesy of Odds Shark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates and get the free odds tracker app.