USF vs. Florida State: Complete Game Preview
Florida State had to wait a little longer than expected in order to record its season-opening rout of Texas State on Saturday thanks to inclement weather.
But barring another thunderstorm, the Seminoles will get to take care of business early—quite early—in Week 2.
FSU has a pre-noon kickoff this Saturday for its matchup with in-state foe USF, which is coming off a 51-3 beatdown of Florida A&M. Head coach Willie Taggart's team went 4-8 last season but kept things reasonably close with Power Five opponents Maryland and Wisconsin. (The Bulls' lone ACC foe, N.C. State, smashed them by a score of 49-17.)
The Seminoles are coming off a fantastic offensive showcase featuring new starting quarterback Everett Golson. Despite some frustrating mistakes in other areas, head coach Jimbo Fisher's younger squad cruised to a comfortable victory in Week 1 of the new campaign.
Before the complete breakdown of this Sunshine State showdown between the Bulls and the Seminoles, here is the basic information for Saturday's matchup:
Date: Saturday, September 12
Time: 11:30 a.m. ET
Location: Tallahassee, Florida (Doak Campbell Stadium)
TV: ESPN
Radio: Seminole IMG Sports Network
Line: Florida State -29, according to Odds Shark
USF Keys to Victory
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Take full advantage of miscues
Florida State is a talented team, but it still is young and prone to miscues. Against Texas State on Saturday, the Seminoles fumbled a pair of punts and had a complete breakdown on the Bobcats' second-quarter touchdown.
Even veteran kicker Roberto Aguayo—one of the best historically at his position—had two kickoffs go out of bounds.
"We’ll live and learn," Fisher said, per Safid Deen of the Tallahassee Democrat. "We were able to overcome those mistakes which could be critical (in the future) … We’re going to be a work in progress, and this team is going to continue to hopefully grow each week, learn from its mistakes and continue to do the things it does well."
Those are the kind of errors the Bulls must pounce on in order to survive a trip to Doak Campbell Stadium on Saturday. When you enter a game as a heavy underdog, you usually need to catch several big breaks and take full advantage of them.
USF can come into Tallahassee and play without pressure Saturday. By limiting the frequent mistakes that have been a problem during Taggart's tenure and seizing every opportunity the Seminoles may present to them, the Bulls could hang around for a lot longer than people expect.
Contain FSU's ground game
Florida State is coming off one of its best offensive performances under Fisher. The Seminoles' new-look offensive unit had 636 yards and 59 points against Texas State, a team that went 7-5 last season and hung tough with a number of bowl-eligible teams.
The FSU offense was able to have so much success with a brand new quarterback and almost entirely new offensive line in part because of running back Dalvin Cook's performance.
The sophomore averaged more than eight yards per carry against Texas State and found the end zone twice while opening up opportunities for Golson to hit the defense downfield.
While the Bulls will come nowhere close to the game it had against the run last Saturday—they allowed only 12 yards on 34 carries to a helpless Florida A&M—the defensive front should have some momentum heading into Saturday's game.
If it can limit Cook's effectiveness and disrupt the offensive balance, the Bulls will be in better shape defensively.
Florida State Keys to Victory
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Get in a good offensive rhythm early
Early kickoffs are notorious for causing slow starts for quality teams, especially on the offensive side of the ball. With Florida State still looking to improve with its transitioning offense, getting off to a great start would be a huge step forward for the Seminoles.
Florida State elected to go with a more conservative approach on offense in the first half of the Texas State game. With Golson making his first start in a brand new offensive scheme, the plan was obvious from the beginning.
"Using a wide array of formations and personnel groupings, FSU predicated its offense on keeping Texas State off balance to initially make life easy for Golson," Brendan Sonnone of the Orlando Sentinel wrote. "Fisher opened up the playbook as Golson got more comfortable, opting to take a few shots downfield on deep passing patterns, with Golson throwing all four of his touchdown passes in the second half."
With an excellent start now under Golson's belt, Florida State could open things up from the beginning and look to hit the ground running against USF.
In addition to helping Golson and the rest of the new offensive starters improve, getting into a good offensive rhythm from the opening snap will also allow the Seminoles to put away the Bulls early. There's no need to make this contest more complicated than it has to be.
Rattle the USF offense
USF quarterback Quinton Flowers will be making only his third career start when he steps onto the field in Tallahassee this weekend. His previous two opponents? SMU in 2014 and Florida A&M in 2015.
This will be the biggest test yet for Flowers and the rest of his USF offense, so Florida State should be looking to crank up the pressure on the backfield all day long.
The Bulls' new uptempo style of offense is still a work in progress, as evidenced by last weekend's rout of FAMU. Flowers threw a bad interception, and, according to the Associated Press (via Fox Sports), three touchdowns were called back because of penalties in the first half of the contest.
"If we’re going to be a winning football team, we’ve got to play like a winning football team," Taggart said, per Jeff Odom of the USF Oracle. "We’ve got to be disciplined like a winning football team. … But that’s something we can correct."
Look for Florida State to get after Flowers and try to throw him off his game early with more of an attacking mindset from the defensive side of the ball.
USF Players to Watch
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RB Marlon Mack
The American Athletic Conference's reigning rushing champion got off to a fantastic start last weekend against Florida A&M, taking 23 carries for 140 yards and one touchdown. Mack should be able to form a nice partnership with the dual-threat Flowers this season and develop a tough rushing attack in the AAC.
With a relatively inexperienced quarterback, Mack will be a focal part of the USF offense throughout the season, especially against Florida State.
"Like it or not, that's the kind of offense Taggart's going to be running this season as long as Quinton Flowers is his quarterback and is throwing wobbly ducks on anything beyond the sticks—Marlon Mack and a lot of short passing," Ryan T. Smith of 247Sports wrote.
TE Elkanah Dillon
When the Bulls decide to go to the air, keep an eye on Dillon as a different kind of weapon USF can use against the Seminoles. The redshirt freshman had four catches for 126 yards against FAMU, and Taggart was pleased with his performance:
"Taggart on RFr. TE Elkanah Dillion: "We gave him an opportunity and he went out and took advantage of it."
— USF Football (@USFFootball) September 8, 2015"
Standing at 6'5" and weighing 245 pounds, Dillon will be a big target for Flowers as he makes the first big start of his career. He's already proven to be dangerous in the open field, so FSU will look to limit his opportunities.
DE Demetrius Hill
Hill had five tackles for loss last season from the defensive end position for USF, and he had more than half of those against Florida A&M last week.
According to Smith, writing for SB Nation's Voodoo Five, Hill "might be the most physically gifted athlete on USF's defensive line."
He reclaimed a rotational spot on the Bulls' defensive line during fall camp, despite missing all of spring practices with an undisclosed personal issue.
Hill will be tasked with helping USF get through a Florida State offensive line that is young but talented. The Bulls have plenty of contributors across its defensive line, but Hill was a fixture for the team last season and will continue to be one in 2015.
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Florida State Players to Watch
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QB Everett Golson
Golson's progression in the Florida State offense will continue to be a spotlight storyline throughout the early season for the Seminoles. He had a dream debut for the program last weekend, as he took home the ACC's Back of the Week Award for his 302-yard, four-touchdown performance.
Fisher seemed pleased with Golson's performance against Texas State, and one of the areas in which he wants to see improvement from the Notre Dame transfer quarterback is the "little things," like getting his teammates lined up quicker.
"We get caught up in the results sometimes, but there's a process you have to go through with the ball handling, the things, the eye control, where you're looking at, maybe a blitz pickup here and there, and you do it when it's fresh in their mind so it can click in their mind right then and they adjust," Fisher said, per Sonnone.
LT Roderick Johnson
Johnson is the unquestioned leader of a new-look offensive line, and he had a sensational opening to the 2015 season. According to Sonnone, Johnson graded out at an 89 against Texas State, and "first-round draft pick Cam Erving had an average grade of 83 in 2014."
While the offensive line allowed two sacks last week, it paved the way for a massive amount of yardage and points—especially on the ground. And the numbers show Johnson was the top performer on the unit.
He will continue to be one to watch on the offensive line as the Seminoles venture through the early part of the season. As previously mentioned, USF has a solid amount of experience across the defensive line, so the Bulls should provide a stiffer test to Johnson and company.
CB Jalen Ramsey
Some Florida State fans aren't completely on board with top player Jalen Ramsey returning kicks this season. When questioned about his decision to run the star cornerback on special teams, Fisher was blunt with his reply.
"Why would you not put one of your best players back there?" Fisher said, per Deen. "How is that a risk? What are you risking? That your best player doesn’t touch the ball? I thought that was the object (of the game)."
While he continues to excel in the defensive backfield, Ramsey will still get opportunities for big plays in special teams. His first kick return of the season went for 37 yards and ended with a somewhat scary landing. Love Fisher's decision or hate it, but Ramsey draws the eye anytime he gets near the ball.
What They're Saying
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USF
Taggart on quarterback Flowers, per Joey Johnston of the Tampa Tribune:
"He makes people miss. He makes plays the average Joe can’t make. I love that he loves to compete... Sometimes, guys put a lot of pressure on themselves or they worry about what others are going to say. Those things don’t bother Quinton. He understands when he makes a mistake and tries to correct it. But he doesn’t get down. His demeanor doesn’t change. He’s a winner. He’s unique.
"
Taggart on game-planning for Florida State's Golson and Cook, per Jim Henry of the Tallahassee Democrat:
"We've got to work on everything and pray every day and every night to make sure we try to stop those guys, they are very talented.
"
Taggart on preparing to play Florida State, per the program's Twitter account:
"They're talented and we're gonna have to play our A-game. But I like our guys and I like our chances.
"
Florida State
Fisher on quarterback Golson, per Tom D'Angelo of the Palm Beach Post:
"When you’re quarterbacking there are so many things that can happen, you never stop coaching and you can over coach a guy. But you got to make sure he’s aware of the little things that really separated those average quarterbacks from the good ones and those good ones from those great one. He was able to do that at times. ... It’s still a lot of work in progress, we’ll expand and do different things. For right now what we’ve got going he did a nice job.
"
Defensive back Lamarcus Brutus on the defense's chemistry, per Deen of the Tallahassee Democrat:
"We’re all pretty close. Communication is the big thing on and off the field. Jalen (Ramsey) and I, we’re typically on the same side so if there’s something that he’s unsure about or I’m unsure about, we talk about it before it happens so we can be on the same page. And that’s the same thing for (safety) Nate (Andrews) and (cornerback) Marquez (White), and whoever is in. Everybody is kinda close together and that’s where communication really helps us out.
"
Fisher on Florida State's receivers, per D'Angelo:
"That’s what they got to understand. It’s not about ability, it’s about precision, it’s about detail. Everybody out there can run and jump. If you want to be a great passing football team, the precision and timing it takes to do that is relentless. You have to be one of those guys who stays focused all the time.
"
Prediction
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Prediction: Florida State 45, USF 10
USF should be a tougher challenge on defense than the one that Texas State provided the Seminoles last weekend. With seven returning starters and the momentum from a dominant performance—albeit against an infinitely worse team—the Bulls won't be a cakewalk on that side of the ball.
However, the visitors will be bringing in a young quarterback for his first start against a Power Five opponent, and the home-field advantage should play an important factor. USF's offense might swing toward the conservative side early in this one.
Expect Florida State to tighten up its mistakes on defense and special teams this week, giving USF few chances to take advantage of and stay in the game. After all, coaches love to say how the biggest improvements for teams come between the first and second contests.
I don't see Florida State flirting with the 60-point mark again this week, but I wouldn't be surprised if the Seminoles clamp down on this young Bulls offense that's adapting to a new scheme.
With a quicker start on offense and better play on defense, Florida State jumps on USF in this early kickoff and doesn't look back.
All stats courtesy of CFBStats.com. Recruit rankings courtesy of 247Sports.
Justin Ferguson is a college football writer at Bleacher Report. You can follow him on Twitter @JFergusonBR.
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