Florida vs. East Carolina Complete Game Preview
East Carolina will invade Ben Hill Griffin Stadium this weekend for a rematch of last year's Birmingham Bowl and the first true challenge of head coach Jim McElwain's tenure.
McElwain passed his first test with flying colors, leading the Gators to a 61-13 Week 1 win over New Mexico State. The Gators earned high marks on both sides of the football and outgained the Aggies by 406 yards.
But the schedule gets progressively tougher, starting with an ECU team that's won 26 games the past three seasons. The Pirates outgained Florida by roughly 200 yards in the Birmingham Bowl, but they failed to capitalize with touchdowns and lost 28-20.
This year, it's a much different team—a team that loses some serious quality players—so Florida should win by even more than eight points. If the Gators who pasted New Mexico State show up Saturday, they will cover the three-touchdown spread.
But Florida fans know not to get cocky after last year's team beat Eastern Michigan 65-0 in the opener, then needed three overtimes to beat Kentucky the following week.
A second strong performance would speak volumes.
Date: Saturday, September 12
Time: 7 p.m. ET
Location: Ben Hill Griffin Stadium; Gainesville, Fla.
TV: ESPN2
Line: Florida -20, according to Odds Shark
Florida Keys to Victory
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Establish the Run on Standard Downs
East Carolina has one of the best mid-major run defenses in college football.
It ranked No. 36 in the country last season, per Football Outsiders' S&P+ ratings, and while it may regress after losing 6'1", 353-pound nose tackle Terry Williams, it returns enough players along the line and at linebacker to remain one of the Pirates' strengths.
This will be a good early test for Florida's rebuilt running game, which needs to gain consistent yards on early downs. Doing so will keep Treon Harris and Will Grier out of 3rd-and-longs and give them the best chance for success.
Florida's offensive line looked great against New Mexico State, but that was New Mexico State. The Pirates are better than the Aggies but worse than most SEC defenses, which make them the perfect Week 2 opponent before Kentucky the following Saturday.
The Gators averaged 3.9 yards per rush in last year's Birmingham Bowl. That won't get the job done this weekend. Running backs Kelvin Taylor, Jordan Scarlett and Jordan Cronkrite have to set the tone on first and second downs; otherwise, too much rides on the quarterbacks.
Rattle QB Blake Kemp
The Shane Carden days are over. After what felt like a 10-year run in Greenville, Carden graduated this offseason and gave way to sophomore Kurt Benkert. But Benkert tore his ACL in fall camp, which handed the offense to JUCO transfer Blake Kemp.
Kemp was efficient but unexplosive in his debut, completing 29 of 37 passes for 230 yards, two touchdowns and no interceptions in a 28-20 win over Towson. He stood behind a mostly clean pocket, made smart decisions and found a rhythm underneath.
Florida needs to dirty up that pocket, force bad decisions and prevent him from finding that rhythm. If it allows Kemp to stand in and make low-risk, high-percentage throws—the crux of East Carolina's offense—he can move the chains and control the clock. But if Jonathan Bullard, Bryan Cox and the rest of Florida's front seven bully East Carolina's offensive line the way an SEC team should bully an AAC offensive line, Kemp becomes a risk factor.
Florida sacked Carden four times and intercepted him twice in the Birmingham Bowl, which helped limit the Pirates to 20 points despite 536 offensive yards. In theory, playing Kemp in The Swamp instead of Carden on a neutral field should lead to even more negative plays.
Rattling Kemp is pivotal.
East Carolina Keys to Victory
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Create Big Plays
Creating big plays is not one of ECU's strengths. It runs an underneath offense that relies more on efficiency than explosiveness. Last week, Kemp completed 29 passes: 19 for fewer than 10 yards, 10 for between 10-19 yards and zero for 20 yards or more.
That will need to change against Florida. Cornerbacks Vernon Hargreaves (whose father once coached at East Carolina), Jalen Tabor and Duke Dawson are too good for East Carolina to depend on consistent completions. Justin Hardy and Cam Worthy made it work in the Birmingham Bowl (19 total catches for 290 yards), but neither returns this season. The new cast of wide receivers will simply not get open often enough.
Making matters worse, one of ECU's only big-play weapons, receiver Trevon Brown, is suspended for violating the school's residence-hall policy. New No. 1 target Isaiah Jones is a possession receiver, and Hargreaves will likely render him ineffective.
Who will step up and take the top off Florida's secondary? That's the best way to score points as an underdog.
Pressure Florida's Quarterbacks
Again, this isn't one of ECU's strengths.
The Pirates defensive line ranked No. 111 in the country in adjusted sack rate, per Bill Connelly of SB Nation. It did its job against the run, which forced offenses to become one-dimensional, but then it failed to create pressure on obvious passing downs.
Creating pressure is one of the keys to beating Florida—a sentiment we'll repeat all season. The Missouri game still echoes in most peoples' minds. Harris is a true sophomore, Grier is a redshirt freshman and the offensive line is young and raw; there are plays to be made in this backfield.
East Carolina just needs to knife through and make them.
Florida Players to Watch
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QBs Will Grier and Treon Harris
Harris earned the start and played well against New Mexico State, but Grier saw meaningful time and matched his output:
| CMP-ATT | YDS | TD/INT | Rating | RUSH | YDS | TD | |
| Harris | 14-19 | 215 | 2/0 | 203.47 | 5 | 23 | 0 |
| Grier | 16-18 | 166 | 2/0 | 203.02 | 4 | 43 | 1 |
McElwain said he'll play both quarterbacks again this week, per Anthony Chiang of the Palm Beach Post, which gives each player another chance to distinguish himself. Right now they seem interchangeable, which is not necessarily a bad thing as long as they're playing well, but this is not a Chris Leak-Tim Tebow situation: They can't play situationally all season. One guy needs to make this job his, which means neither can afford to struggle.
OT Martez Ivey
Martez Ivey missed the season opener with a knee injury, but he's listed as the co-starter at left tackle, and McElwain said he's "hopeful" the true freshman will play, per Andy Hutchins of Alligator Army. Ivey was the No. 2 overall player in the 2015 recruiting class and looked great before going down in fall camp. The last two freshman tackles who ranked as high as Ivey, Ole Miss' Laremy Tunsil and Alabama's Cameron Robinson, both started from day one and played like veterans. It's hard to overstate how badly Florida needs Ivey to follow suit.
S Marcus Maye
Safety Marcus Maye was a missile in last year's Birmingham Bowl. He recorded eight tackles, four of which prevented successful plays (50 percent of needed yardage of first down; 70 percent on second down; 100 percent on third and fourth down), and also broke up two passes. He missed the season-opener with a suspension, so this will be his first game of 2015 and his second consecutive game against East Carolina. Let's see how the Pirates plan to deal with him.
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East Carolina Players to Watch
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LB Zeek Bigger
Zeek Bigger is one of the best defensive players from a non-power conference. He posted 140 tackles last season and 10 in the Week 1 win over Towson. Remember how we said Florida needs to run the ball effectively on standard downs? Bigger is ECU's best hope of preventing that. He recorded only six tackles (a season-low) in the Birmingham Bowl, so it will be interesting to see how he adjusts.
RB Chris Hairston
With all the talk of Kemp replacing Carden at quarterback and Jones replacing Hardy at receiver, it's easy to forget about Chris Hairston replacing Breon Allen at running back. Allen was a rare combination of efficiency and explosiveness, which proved important for an ECU offense that doesn't create big plays through the air. Hairston rushed 18 times for 154 yards and four touchdowns against Towson, so he's off to a good start, but Florida is in a whole other league. He'll need to crack a couple of long runs to keep ECU in the game.
DE Terrell Stanley
Terrell Stanley led East Carolina with seven sacks two years ago, but he missed last season after sustaining serious injuries in a car crash. He returned to the field against Towson, and while he didn't log his first sack since the injury, he did record three tackles and one tackle for loss. Stanley has the size (6'2", 268 lbs) and experience to cause problems for Florida's offensive line. But really this is just an awesome story.
What They're Saying
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Florida
McElwain on the quarterbacks spreading touches around in the season opener, when 14 different players caught passes, per Chris Harry of GatorZone.com:
"I liked the fact that there were a lot of people in the box score as far as touching the ball. I think that’s a credit to both quarterbacks taking what the defense gives them [and] not just looking for one guy to throw it to. I think it showed a maturation in both of those guys’ cases going through their read progressions, getting it where it needs to go. There’s some really good things to build on.
"
McElwain on avoiding mistakes against New Mexico State, per quotes released by Aggies:
"We played the game fast, physical, but we played clean. I think we had one penalty and it came with about three minutes to go in the game and that showed me a lot. It showed me that our guys are listening, our guys are understanding the investment they make in themselves and not do things to hurt their teammates and I was really proud of that.
"
East Carolina
Head coach Ruffin McNeill on the difference between last year's and this year's Florida teams, per quotes released by the school:
"I thought D.J. (Durkin) did a good job with them defensively last year, but you can see Mac's influence on them in his first game. Defensively, you see where they're sound and still playing some man coverage. They have some really good pass rushers and guys up front. They're playing two quarterbacks with Treon (Harris) and Will Grier, who we know. They have a lot of speed and they're a well-coached team. Mac's a good ball coach.
"
McNeill on Kemp throwing so many short passes (and so few deep passes) in his first career start against Towson:
"The offense is designed to take what they (defenses) give you. Blake did a good job for a first game. In any game, but especially first games, we give them what they can handle, not too much. Blake's smart and been around it. He's played in this offense. When he left high school, he went to junior college to be in a spread offense. He played in Wing-T in high school. He's been taught to take what's there whether it's a screen or run. Blake handled it just like I thought he would. He's one of those kids who, growing up, had no golden or silver spoon and had to work for everything he's got. The kids love him.
"
Prediction
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East Carolina has the front seven to compete in run support. It held the Gators to 3.9 yards per carry in the Birmingham Bowl, and it returns a solid portion of its depth chart while Florida loses multiple starting linemen and running back Adam Lane.
That will throw McElwain's offense off schedule and pressure one of the quarterbacks to make plays on passing downs.
Grier will emerge as that quarterback.
Harris averaged more yards per pass than Grier in the opener (while Grier, weirdly, finished with more rushing yards), but Grier still has the better pure arm. Against a pass defense that is better than New Mexico State's but still not very good, I expect Grier to post better volume numbers. He might not be as efficient, but he should be even more impressive.
The betting market has overreacted to how both teams looked last weekend. Florida drilled New Mexico State and East Carolina beat Towson by single-digits, and as a result the line has shifted from Gators minus-13 to Gators minus-20. I don't think Florida covers that—20 is a steep number to lay against a good head coach like McNeill—but I do think it wins comfortably.
Prediction: Florida 34, East Carolina 20
Note: All recruiting info refers to 247Sports' composite rankings.
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