Predicting Final Order of Finish for 2015 Heisman Trophy
As the 2015 college football season begins, it’s fun to take a look at the Heisman Trophy preseason odds. While we think we know the elite players in the game, odds are we’ll feel differently when the stiff-arm trophy is handed out in Manhattan in December.
Players will fall off the list due to injury or poor production, replaced by others who were well off the board when the season began. Think otherwise? Look at the 2014 preseason odds, per Odds Shark. Players like Georgia’s Todd Gurley, Auburn’s Nick Marshall and Oklahoma’s Trevor Knight were among the top contenders who didn’t sniff a trip to the Heisman ceremony.
The same will be the case this year, but that doesn’t mean we won’t have fun trying to determine who’ll hoist the trophy even before the first Saturday of the season. Here’s our best guess at the finishing order for the 2015 Heisman Trophy. Players were ranked by virtue of their expected 2015 performance, their skills flashed in prior seasons and how we expect the national scene to unfold this fall.
8. Auburn QB Jeremy Johnson
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Jeremy Johnson has started only two career games, but he is already drawing comparisons to another Auburn Heisman Trophy winner: Cam Newton. Johnson stands 6’5” and 240 pounds and possesses an enticing blend of deep-ball skills and the ability to run tacklers over on scrambles.
Last fall, he completed 28 of 37 passes (a 75.7 percent clip) for 436 yards with three touchdowns and no interceptions while playing behind starter Nick Marshall. He started and excelled against Arkansas while Marshall served a suspension for marijuana possession, throwing for 243 yards and two touchdowns in the first half.
Johnson is surrounded by a talented offense, including an excellent deep threat in wide receiver D’haquille Williams. If Auburn’s defense improves under new coordinator Will Muschamp and the Tigers contend for the SEC title, he could become a Heisman favorite.
7. Southern California QB Cody Kessler
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2015 could be a special season for Southern California. Since receiving serious NCAA sanctions that stripped 30 scholarships over three seasons in 2010, the Trojans are 44-21 with a pair of 10-win seasons. But that doesn’t match the high standards set by former coach Pete Carroll, who won an AP national title in 2003 and a BCS national championship in 2004.
But with sanctions easing and coach Steve Sarkisian in place, USC has the talent to return to the national spotlight this fall. If so, the Trojans will get there with a big assist from Cody Kessler. The senior quarterback, who stands 6’1” and 210 pounds, is one of college football’s more underrated players.
Last fall, he threw an amazing 39 touchdowns against five interceptions. While he lost receiver Nelson Agholor to the NFL draft, the Trojan offense still has plenty of talent. Sophomore receiver JuJu Smith-Schuster is an emerging star, and two-way player Adoree’ Jackson can make an offensive impact, too.
If USC contends for the College Football Playoff, Kessler will reap the benefits in the national spotlight and earn a trip to New York City.
6. Clemson QB Deshaun Watson
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Clemson returns just five starters from a year ago, but head coach Dabo Swinney’s Tigers have high hopes of a College Football Playoff berth and contending for the program’s first national title since 1981.
There are many reasons why, but one of the biggest is sophomore quarterback Deshaun Watson.
Watson made just five starts as a freshman thanks to finger and knee injuries that truncated his season, but he flashed impressive skills when he was healthy. In his first career start, he tied an ACC record with six touchdowns and threw for 435 yards in a win over North Carolina.
On the season, he threw 1,466 yards with 14 touchdowns against two interceptions and combined excellent mobility with a strong arm. Are there concerns about his frame at 6’2” and 205 pounds? Sure.
But Watson is healthy now, and he has the skills to excel in an offense with one of the game’s best receiving corps, including junior Mike Williams, sophomore Artavis Scott and freshmen Deon Cain and Ray-Ray McCloud.
If he stays upright behind a revamped offensive line, Clemson’s offense will thrive, earning him a ticket to New York.
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5. Ohio State QB J.T. Barrett
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This was a spot worth agonizing over given Ohio State’s ongoing quarterback battle pitting sophomore J.T. Barrett and junior Cardale Jones. No one, save perhaps head coach Urban Meyer, knows who’ll run out for the first snap Monday night at Virginia Tech or if both quarterbacks will play. Co-offensive coordinator Tim Beck told USA Today's Nicole Auerbach that the competition was like "two heavyweights going at it."
But there’s no denying Barrett’s impact after he was thrown into the starting lineup last fall for the Buckeyes. Jones finished the run to the national title, but Ohio State wouldn’t have been there without Barrett. He threw for 2,834 yards with 34 touchdowns against 10 interceptions, adding 938 rushing yards and 11 scores on the ground.
Barrett can hurt defenses in a variety of ways, and he’ll work with another loaded Ohio State offense this fall, including former starting quarterback Braxton Miller as an H-back/wide receiver. If he can shake off the rust from his season-ending broken ankle, he’ll be a clear factor in the Heisman race for the nation’s best team.
4. LSU RB Leonard Fournette
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Entering his sophomore season, LSU tailback Leonard Fournette is poised to emerge as one of college football’s truly elite players. The nation’s consensus 2014 top recruit, per 247Sports, got off to a slow start but flashed jaw-dropping skills in the season’s final stretch to finish with 1,034 rushing yards and 10 touchdowns.
Fournette stands 6’1” and 230 pounds and has a blend of power and speed that frightens opposing linebackers. He should be even better with a winter in the weight room behind him, but the biggest factor will be Brandon Harris’ development as LSU’s starting quarterback.
If Harris can take control of the offense and utilize a dangerous group of receivers, he’ll take pressure off Fournette and increase his overall value. ESPN’s Joey Galloway told NOLA.com’s Jerit Roser that Fournette “absolutely can win” the Heisman.
“As far as his ability and the kind of running back he is, if they can get the passing game going—and they don't have to be really good, they just have to be able to make some plays—and he absolutely can win it," Galloway said.
We agree. Fournette is a special talent, and he’ll flash it even more this season.
3. Georgia RB Nick Chubb
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A year ago, if you knew who Nick Chubb was, you were either a Georgia fan or a major college football recruiting aficionado. Now, if you don’t know who Chubb is, you’re just not paying attention. Last fall, Chubb emerged from Todd Gurley’s considerable shadow to become one of college football’s best tailbacks as a freshman.
He rushed for 1,547 yards with 14 touchdowns and racked up eight consecutive 100-yard rushing games. The last UGA player to turn that trick? None other than Heisman Trophy winner Herschel Walker. Chubb’s 266 yards in a Belk Bowl rout of Louisville was the second-highest rushing total in UGA history behind Walker, who ripped Vanderbilt for 283 yards in 1980.
At 5’10” and 228 pounds, Chubb is the kind of player opposing linebackers don’t want to see coming through the A-gap. He can run over and around defenders, breaking huge gains on the outside or running between the tackles.
He leads a deep Georgia backfield, and he’ll get fed plenty by new starting quarterback Greyson Lambert, a graduate transfer from Virginia. If new offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer is smart, he’ll lean on Chubb early and often and fuel the Bulldogs’ run to an SEC title and a College Football Playoff berth.
2. Ohio State RB Ezekiel Elliott
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With all the hubbub surrounding Ohio State’s quarterback situation, we haven’t heard much about tailback Ezekiel Elliott this season. That’s fine. You’ll hear his name plenty this fall. While Cardale Jones stole headlines, Elliott was one of the biggest reasons the Buckeyes claimed a national title last fall.
He had a breakout season, rushing for 1,878 yards and 18 touchdowns. And he got better as the season went along, ending the year with three consecutive 200-yard rushing efforts.
Elliott saved the best for last, rushing 36 times for 246 yards and four scores in Ohio State’s 42-20 national title game rout of Oregon.
At 6’0” and 225 pounds, Elliott has an appealing blend of power and speed, and his physicality helps him thrive in Ohio State’s fast-paced scheme. He’s playing for the nation’s best team, and perhaps the only thing that could seriously hurt his candidacy is having potential votes cleaved away by the eventual winner of the Buckeyes’ quarterback derby.
1. TCU QB Trevone Boykin
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If you asked someone this time a year ago who the leading returning Heisman Trophy vote-getter would be in 2015, chances are that person would have gone through many, many names before settling on Trevone Boykin.
Yet that’s exactly the case as the season begins. Boykin settled in full time at quarterback in TCU’s Air Raid offense last fall and was the nation’s biggest breakout star. He was the main reason the Horned Frogs improved from 4-8 in 2013 to 12-1 in 2014, just missing the College Football Playoff.
The onetime wide receiver did a little bit of everything last year, throwing for 3,901 yards with 33 touchdowns and 10 interceptions and adding 707 rushing yards and eight touchdowns as a dual-threat quarterback.
He had a solid opener in No. 2 TCU's 23-17 win at Minnesota, completing 26 of 42 passes for 246 yards, a touchdown and an interception and adding 18 carries for 92 yards and a score as the Horned Frogs' leading rusher.
Boykin is mobile with a solid arm, and he leads an offense that returns 10 starters from the nation’s No. 2 scoring offense. TCU is one of the nation’s best teams, and the Horned Frogs will score and score often again this fall.
Quarterbacks have won 13 of the last 15 Heisman Trophies and the last five overall. Boykin will continue that trend on one of the nation’s best teams as TCU finishes the drill and makes the College Football Playoff.
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