Oregon Football: Realistic Expectations for QB Vernon Adams in 2015

“Now what?”

That was the question Oregon Ducks head coach Mark Helfrich and his top lieutenants asked themselves when the reality of the 2015 season finally hit them despite the months and months of talk, foreshadowing and declarations.

Marcus Mariota, arguably the best quarterback in school history, Heisman Trophy winner, team leader and all-around great guy was gone.

Now what?

Enter Vernon Adams, a much-discussed transfer from the Eastern Washington Eagles who was named Oregon’s starting signal-caller last week for the team’s opener against…Eastern Washington. As if that storyline wasn’t juicy enough, a former FCS player taking over for the Heisman winner surely adds to the level of intrigue.

Expectations will be high this season for Oregon, a Pacific Northwest powerhouse with a lofty ranking in the polls and designs on capturing another Pac-12 title. With Adams under center, he’ll be frequently compared to his predecessor, but once the games begin, the year becomes about him and not the ghost of number eight.

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“The honest truth is Marcus bailed us out of three or four games last year with his play,” offensive coordinator Scott Frost told USA Today's George Schroeder. “I don’t think with the guys around him the quarterback has to be Superman to make it go, but you never know how the season is gonna go.”

If we peer into our crystal ball, though, what can we expect to see out of Adams?

While he may think of himself as Superman given the swagger he displays on the field at times, asking him to reach and repeat Mariota’s numbers is hard to fathom. Adams is bound to throw more interceptions—Mariota had just 14 in his career and only four last year—and it will be equally tough to match the 10 yards per attempt the veteran had either.

Adams is good, but he is not that good.

A run at a repeat trip to the College Football Playoff can’t be ruled out, however, with the Ducks’ new starter given the talent that has been assembled in green and yellow. A one-loss regular-season campaign can’t be the expectation, as some backsliding needs to be expected after a magical 2014. A tougher schedule, especially in Pac-12 play, will contribute to that as much as anything the team’s signal-caller does.

Still, no matter how prolific any dual-threat quarterback is, his primary job description remains the same: distribute the ball to the team’s playmakers. This is where Adams may have a leg up on Mariota due to the experience around him at the skill positions.

Sophomore Royce Freeman is a fringe Heisman Trophy contender himself. Bralon Addison, the team’s most explosive receiver two years ago, returns to action fully healthy after a devastating knee injury and finds himself as a backup due to the amount of depth the team has at wideout. Charles Nelson proved to be a speedy option in space as a true freshman receiver, and Byron Marshall brings a wealth of experience out of the slot as well.

Throw in tight ends Evan Baylis and Johnny Mundt, a fair amount of experience returning along the offensive line, and there’s a reason why many still believe a championship season is possible in Eugene even if there is some regression when it comes to the play behind center.

Much has been made of Adams’ transition from FCS star to FBS starter, and it’s certainly something to keep an eye on. But don’t discount the fact that he’s got an impressive resume that leads one to believe that it won’t be as big of a jump as going from college to the NFL that some are making things out to be.

At Eastern Washington, all Adams did was put up a 110-to-31 touchdown/interception ratio. Read that line again while parsing out the relevant stat: 110 touchdowns in three seasons. It wasn’t just against overmatched FCS teams either. He beat a then-top 25 team in 2013 by topping Oregon State with 518 yards of total offense. Last year, against a defense that featured three early NFL draft picks, Adams rolled up 475 yards and seven touchdowns in a narrow loss to the Washington Huskies.

The bottom line is that Adams has what fellow quarterback Jeff Lockie did not in the race to replace Mariota: experience being the guy. In the coaches’ eyes, that outweighed any advantage Lockie had when it came to knowing the Ducks’ offense—something that became clear when Adams won the job in just two weeks of fall camp.

It will be difficult for anybody to replicate what Mariota was able to do in Eugene. That’s not Adams’ aim nor should that level of play be the expectation. Given the success in Oregon’s offense that others like Darron Thomas and Dennis Dixon have had, however, it’s not unreasonable to think similar numbers will be there for Adams at the end of the year just as double-digit wins will be.

Whether that translates into FBS accolades or an early, season-defining win in Week 2 over Michigan State won’t be answered until the red contact jersey is ripped off and the snaps start counting for real.

After months of speculation, a minute-by-minute update on a math test and a tight quarterback battle, it’s time for fans, the media and NFL scouts to ponder that same question that Ducks coaches did several months ago.

Now what, Vernon?

You can follow Bryan Fischer on Twitter at @BryanDFischer.