Why the NBA's Biggest Contract Extension Candidates Should Stay at Home
Smack in the heart of the NBA's early-September doldrums, there's a unique brand of intrigue building.
The draft class of 2012 has now been in the league long enough to get comfortable—or restless, depending on the situation. And those who haven't yet inked extensions with their current teams (in most cases, the only teams they've ever known) are eligible to re-up until October 31.
Some of the very biggest names have already committed to staying with the squads that drafted them. Anthony Davis (five years, $145 million) and Damian Lillard (five years, $120 million), the two highest-profile members of the class, received max offers from the New Orleans Pelicans and Portland Trail Blazers, respectively.
It didn't take them long to sign.
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist didn't get a max offer, but the No. 2 pick in 2012 opted to stay with the Charlotte Hornets on a deal that'll pay him $13 million a year for the next four seasons.
Jonas Valanciunas, drafted in 2011 but eligible for an extension because he stayed overseas for a season, also decided to stick with the Toronto Raptors.
The remaining unsigned are still inhaling their first whiffs of contractual freedom. That liberty is limited, as a failure to reach an extension by the end of October will only lead to restricted free agency in 2016. Nonetheless, guys like Harrison Barnes, Bradley Beal and Andre Drummond are all experiencing the rush of slightly cloudy futures.
Here's a rundown of the notables from the class of 2012:
| Anthony Davis | NOP | Yes | 5 Years, $145 Million |
| Michael Kidd-Gilchrist | CHA | Yes | 4 Years, $52 Million |
| Bradley Beal | WAS | No | |
| Dion Waiters | OKC | No | |
| Thomas Robinson | BKN | No | |
| Damian Lillard | POR | Yes | 5 Years, $120 Million |
| Harrison Barnes | GSW | No | |
| Terrence Ross | TOR | No | |
| Andre Drummond | DET | No | |
| Terrence Jones | HOU | No | |
| Jonas Valanciunas* | TOR | Yes | 4 Years, $64 Million |
They can't break loose yet, but perhaps a few of those names are wondering what it would feel like to test the market when they get their chances.
It's hard to fault that impulse. Rookie deals are extremely team-friendly. Through guaranteed seasons and team options, organizations have total control over first-round selections for a minimum of four years. After that, it's restricted free agency—a scenario that makes liberal use of the word "free." The collective bargaining agreement allows teams to match offer sheets from other organizations, so the player is still very much limited in his options.
This moment—this weird little window in which teams and 2012 first-rounders can actually talk about future possibilities (because there finally are some)—is ripe for some grass-is-greener daydreaming.
Maybe Barnes wants to know what it would be like to feature as something more than a fifth option.
Maybe Beal gets caught up wondering how it might feel to spend more time with the ball in his hands.
Other than Drummond, for whom a max extension has felt like a foregone conclusion since Detroit Pistons owner Tom Gores unsubtly called him "a maximum guy" last April, the remaining extension candidates aren't their team's most prominent players. And the hardwired confidence that got these guys to this point might cause them to believe they could fill bigger roles in other situations.
But in almost every remaining 2012 extension case, the smartest move is maintaining the status quo—provided, of course, that the money's right.
Take Beal as the first example.
A fearsome threat with perfect form from three, Beal couldn't ask for a better backcourt mate than John Wall. Though Beal's ball-handling and timing on the pick-and-roll suggest he's ready for his role to expand beyond the catch-and-shoot game, Wall's ability to set up long-range bombers is second to none.
Last year, Wall looked for Beal far more often than he did any other Washington Wizards player, tossing him 17.6 passes per game, according to NBA.com. (Paul Pierce was second, with 12.3 passes per game coming from Wall.)
The year before that, Wall led the league with 109 corner-three assists, hitting Beal on such setups 31 times in the 73 games they played together, per Grantland's Kirk Goldsberry.
Beal has it pretty good with Wall and the Wizards.
The same goes for Barnes and the Warriors.
After being miscast as an isolation scorer in his first two years, Barnes settled into a perfect role last season. He spotted up on the perimeter, hitting a career-best 40.5 percent of his threes; he effectively stopped dribbling in the half-court unless making straight-line drives, cutting his turnover rate to a career low; and he established himself as a gritty defender willing to match up against much larger opponents underneath.
Thanks to Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson and even Draymond Green, Barnes is in the enviable position of being every opponent's game-planning afterthought—a role that affords him loads of open looks and minimal expectations. And he gets to perform that job for the reigning NBA champions.
Barnes won't find a better gig elsewhere, and he seems to know it, as he told Diamond Leung of the San Jose Mercury News:
"I mean, we just won a championship. Of course I'd love to keep this group together for many years to come, you know what I'm saying? So that's obvious. ... [Warriors owner] Joe Lacob has been obviously very vocal about keeping the team together, so therefore I'm not really too concerned about how it's going to shake out.
"
Drummond's case may be even simpler than Barnes' or Beal's. The Pistons have telegraphed what they think he's worth, let Greg Monroe walk to clear the paint and entrusted the franchise to Stan Van Gundy—who proved he could build specifically around a dominant center with Dwight Howard and the Orlando Magic.
Detroit's big man isn't going to do any better than that.
Still, maybe the fatalism of quietly accepting offers from their incumbent teams doesn't appeal to these candidates. Fortunately, if they want a little more control over their futures while still staying put, there's a way to do that.
Jimmy Butler passed up an extension last summer, put together a phenomenal season that earned him Most Improved Player honors and then cashed in for much more than the Chicago Bulls offered him the first time around. Perhaps most importantly, he did all that without ever making his exit seem like a possibility.
He played both sides brilliantly, turning down an offer while still appearing appreciative and then giving the Bulls no choice but to max him out the following year. He was so good that Chicago employed the rare max qualifying offer just to keep other teams from snaring Butler with a short-term offer sheet.
Butler got the best of both worlds, and he did it while wresting alpha-dog status from Chicago's favorite son, Derrick Rose.
If the Wizards don't come through with a hefty offer and Beal is in search of a path to follow, Butler has provided it.
And any of the other candidates who appreciate their current situations but want to exercise a little more control over their futures can, too.
Stats courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com and NBA.com.
Follow Grant Hughes on Twitter @gt_hughes.
