USC vs. Arkansas State: Complete Game Preview

No. 8 USC opens the 2015 season against an annual Sun Belt Conference title contender: Arkansas State.

The Red Wolves finished 7-6 last season, winning fewer than eight games for the first time since 2010. However, they also retained head coach Blake Anderson for a second season, which means they'll maintain continuity for the first time since that same year.

Former head coaches Hugh Freeze (2011), Gus Malzahn (2012) and Bryan Harsin (2013) spent one year apiece in Jonesboro before moving to Ole Miss, Auburn and Boise State, respectively. All three have played in BCS/College Football Playoff bowl games since leaving.

Last year, Arkansas State lost by 21 points at Miami and 15 points at Tennessee, which provides a good idea of what USC should expect. It is not a realistic threat to upset the Trojans, but Anderson's team plays uptempo, confident football and embraces road challenges.

If USC falls asleep at the wheel, who knows how close this could get?

Date: Saturday, September 5

Time: 11 p.m. ET (8 p.m. local)

Location: Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum; Los Angeles, Calif.

TV: Pac-12 Network

Radio: ESPN Radio; EAB Sports Network

Line: USC -28, according to OddsShark.com

USC Keys to Victory

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Smother Arkansas State's Receivers

Assuming USC's secondary is as strong as it appears on paper, it will nullify one of Arkansas State's biggest strengths: a deep and specialized cast of wide receivers.

Tres Houston (the possession receiver), Dijon Paschal (the big-play receiver) and J.D. McKissic (the slot receiver) each finished with more than 625 but fewer than 690 receiving yards last season, and all three return in 2015. The Red Wolves exploit most secondaries by targeting whichever receiver their opponent is least equipped to cover.

USC's secondary, however, can handle anything. Any combination of Adoree' Jackson, Kevon Seymour and Iman Marshall can cover Houston and Paschal on the perimeter. Jackson, outside linebacker Su'a Cravens and safeties Chris Hawkins and Leon McQuay III can also handle McKissic in the slot.

The Trojans are loaded with cover guys who can fill multiple roles. Shutting down Arkansas State would send a message before games against Stanford and Arizona State in September.

Avoid Turnovers

Arkansas State plays an attacking brand of defense that lends itself to big plays (see next slide) but also forces turnovers. The Red Wolves finished No. 21 in the country last season with 28 turnovers forced, including eight in one game (!) against Idaho.

Quarterback Cody Kessler is a senior who knows how to protect the football. Last year, he threw only five interceptions on 452 attempts, but three of those interceptions came in the final four games, and there's a chance he starts to press without his favorite receiver and security blanket, Nelson Agholor.

More likely than Kessler turning it over, a running back could put the ball on the ground. Justin Davis, Tre Madden and Ronald Jones II are competing to replace Javorius Allen, and in trying to gain a leg up on the others, any of that trio could try to do something fancy instead of taking what he's given.

Neither of those scenarios sound likely, but turnovers remain common for teams with young skill players, especially at the start of the season and against aggressive defenses. Arkansas State will punch away at the ball as if their life (metaphorically!) depends on it.

Arkansas State Keys to Victory

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Fredi Knighten's Heisman Moment!

Quarterback Fredi Knighten was named the to the Preseason All-Sun Belt First Team and fits the profile of a USC killer.

Basically, all that means is he's a dual-threat quarterback. The Trojans went 0-3 against former UCLA quarterback Brett Hundley and also lost to Boston College with Tyler Murphy. They struggle for some reason to defend dual-threat quarterbacks, even when they don't run that often.

Last year, Knighten threw for 3,277 yards and rushed for 779 more. He only averaged 3.69 yards per carry, but sometimes that's enough to keep USC honest. Tommy Armstrong didn't even play well in the Holiday Bowl (41 yards on 12 carries; numerous inaccurate throws to open receivers) and still led Nebraska to 42 points.

Knighten is a senior who will get up for his last big college road trip. Last year, he rushed 14 times for 65 yards and a touchdown in a surprisingly competitive loss at Tennessee.

Why can't Fredi Football have his moment? 

Prevent the Big Play

Arkansas State's defense is the opposite of "bend but don't break." It sells out for turnovers and negative plays, which sometimes works but sometimes leaves linebackers and defensive backs on an island between the ball-carrier and the end zone.

In those latter cases, one missed tackle results in a long touchdown, which happened far too frequently last season. The Red Wolves allowed 14 plays of 40-plus yards and finished No. 106 in the country in IsoPPP+, the explosiveness metric used by Bill Connelly of SB Nation.

USC has the playmakers to burn them on this. Davis and Jones II are threats to score from anywhere, as is wide receiver JuJu Smith. USC was only moderately explosive last season, but Arkansas State made patently nonexplosive teams look like Oregon.

It needs to make those crucial tackles that keep 10-yard gains from becoming 50-yard gains. Otherwise, this game could get ugly.

USC Players to Watch

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LB Su'a Cravens

Cravens moved to linebacker last season after starting his career at safety. The move had more to do with USC's depth chart, which is loaded in the secondary, but doesn't really matter, because he's one of the 10 best players in the country regardless of where he plays. Think of him like one of those Madden players whose rating stays in the mid-90s when you move him from position to position. A strong junior season will make him a top-10 NFL draft pick.

CB Adoree' Jackson

Jackson is an all-world athlete—seriously, he could wind up in the Olympics—who combines raw tools with ahead-of-the-curve technique. He moonlights at wide receiver, but his real future lies at cornerback and in the return game, where he could already make an impact in the NFL. Bleacher Report's Adam Kramer predicted he will make it to New York City for the Heisman ceremony, albeit in a segment titled "Bold Predictions." If he wants to make that Charles Woodson Heisman run, he'll need a big game in the opener.

WR JuJu Smith

Just like Marqise Lee was around to replace Robert Woods, and then Agholor was around to replace Lee, JuJu Smith is around to replace Agholor. He caught 54 passes for 724 yards as a true freshman, despite being relatively raw. Saturday will be our first live look at how much he's grown this offseason. If he's added some new route combinations, he's as good as any receiver in the conference.

Arkansas State Players to Watch

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RB Michael Gordon

If it wants to pull the upset, Arkansas State needs to connect on big plays. There is no better way to beat a team with so much more size and speed. Michael Gordon is a useful big-play threat who last year rushed for 1,100 yards on 159 carries (6.92 YPC) and averaged 8.8 highlight yards per opportunity, per Connelly. Against a USC defense less than a year removed from the massacre at Boston College, it's not insane to think he can make a difference.

QB Fredi Knighten

Knighten is Arkansas State's best player, unquestioned leader and only hope of staying in this game. He finished last season on a hot streak, submitting his two best games of the year in the regular-season finale against New Mexico State (296 passing yards, 153 rushing yards, four total touchdowns) and in the bowl loss to Toledo (23-of-31 passing, 403 yards, five touchdowns, zero interceptions). USC is a completely different animal, but Arkansas State stands no chance unless Knighten posts those kinds of numbers.

DE Ja'Von Rolland-Jones

Ja'Von Rolland-Jones missed the final three games of last season but still made the FWAA Freshman All-America Team. Prior to his injury, he had a four-game stretch against Georgia State, Louisiana-Lafayette, Idaho and South Alabama in which he recorded seven sacks and 11 tackles for loss. He's the best bet to win a one-on-one matchup against USC's offensive line, which is important for a defense that relies so heavily on pressure. It would be great if Arkansas State didn't have to blitz on every passing down.

What They're Saying

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                        USC

Head coach Steve Sarkisian on handing play-calling duties to offensive coordinator Clay Helton, and whether that concerns the fallout from his drunken appearance at the "Salute to Troy" donor event, per Michael Lev of the Orange Country Register:

"

It wasn't since this happened. This has been going on since spring.

I'm still going to have input, especially in third-down and red-zone scenarios. But I also want to focus on being a really good head coach.

I don't want to set offensive records and be 8-5 or 9-4. I want to win 13 games and 14 games.

"

Sarkisian on how he plans to use Jackson, who excels in all three phases, per Bruce Feldman of Fox Sports:

"

So how are we going to use him? The best way we can without killing the poor kid as the season goes on. A lot will be dependent upon how some of our other DBs progress and how much we can use him on the offensive side of the ball. But I would be remiss if I didn't try to get the ball in his hands, because he can score at any moment. When he gets the ball in his hands, he doesn't believe he is going to get tackled, and I don't think he is either.

I'd be foolish not to give him the ball. A lot of it is going to depend on the development of our other DBs and how much we can reduce some of his role on defense to maximize him more on offense. But he's too talented not to put the ball in his hands.

"

Helton on playing Arkansas State, where he "served" as offensive coordinator for 57 days before leaving in February 2010 to join Lane Kiffin's staff at USC, per Troy Schulte of the Arkansas Democrat-Gazette:

"

I just remember the quality of people, starting with [former Arkansas State head coach] Steve Roberts. What a great place to coach football, and the atmosphere that was there and the love they had for the team, just a unique setting.

I think Coach Roberts really had a vision of what the future of football was going to be and was looking to make a step toward that.

"

                        Arkansas State

Anderson on potentially starting five newcomers against the Trojans, per Schulte:

"Inexperience? Yeah, it's a concern. But as I've said before, I've been watching both ends; I was really pleased with the way those guys have come together."

Prediction

Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

Arkansas State should be roughly as good as last year's Fresno State team. A presumably slightly worse USC team beat Fresno State last year 52-13.

Something along those lines is plausible, if not probable, although the Trojans will have to get ahead early to avoid giving the Red Wolves confidence. The longer they let Anderson's team hang around, the higher the chance of a humiliating Week 1 upset.

But don't count on something like that happening. Kessler will be ready to launch his Heisman campaign, and the defense, which has questions along the line but is deep and talented in the back seven, matches up well against a Sun Belt offensive juggernaut.

Prediction: USC 48, Arkansas State 17

All recruiting info refers to 247Sports' composite rankings.