Fantasy Football Week 1: Making the Call on Toughest Lineup Decisions

The word "tough" means many things to many people, but when it comes to Week 1 fantasy football start 'em, sit 'em lineup decisions, it's a universal feeling.

It goes something like this: "Player X could really push me over the edge for a win this week, or it could blow up in my face and cost me the game outright, then my team would be left with only its incredible name (like Manziel in Distress)."

Week 1 personifies this dilemma for owners. There are new faces in new places, rookies, coaching and scheme changes and the injury bug is already making the rounds.

Within, let's dissect some of these tough decisions by throwing them under a microscope and doing the dirty work.

START Carson Palmer vs. New Orleans Saints

Joe Mahoney/Associated Press

Over the years, owners have shied away from Arizona Cardinals quarterback Carson Palmer. 

Despite playing in a pass-happy Bruce Arians offense, owners know full and well the 35-year-old quarterback has made it through a full 16-game season just once over the course of the last four seasons.

Palmer can either carry a team or ruin it on a weekly basis because outside of his shaky health, he has a habit of throwing interceptions. Heck, he tossed two picks in an 8-of-22 effort in his team's third preseason game.

Still, Palmer needs to be in lineups to start the season. He's at home with an elite supporting cast including, but not limited to Larry Fitzgerald, Michael Floyd and John Brown. Back Andre Ellington is a proven receiver out of the backfield too.

Perhaps most important is the matchup. The Saints surrendered the fourth-most points to quarterbacks on average last year and it doesn't figure to improve—No. 1 corner Keenan Lewis won't play and neither will elite safety Jairus Byrd.

Against a hobbled secondary in what should be a shootout, Palmer is a must-start option.

Projected Week 1 stats: 28-of-39, 310 passing yards, 3 touchdowns, 1 interception. 

SIT Kirk Cousins vs. Miami Dolphins

Gail Burton/Associated Press

There's a certain allure to Washington quarterback Kirk Cousins. 

As in, he's a new starter so owners will want to look at the situation and see if there's something of value there.

There's not.

Still, it won't stop the hype, as head coach Jay Gruden explained his reasoning for starting Cousins over Robert Griffin III to Scott Allen of the Washington Post:

"

We feel like the skill set that Kirk has, he does everything from rolling out of the pocket, he’s very good throwing on the move. In the pocket he’s very good, he has the best arm strength of the group, and can anticipate throws, and he has a good feel for the pocket. So really, when you talk about all the fundamental areas where you need a quarterback to succeed, Kirk is probably better at every one of them. Not to say the other ones are bad, but Kirk’s probably ahead of them in every category.

"

Here's the thing—Cousins could come out and live up to every shred of hype with an epic performance.

Owners can only go on the hypothetical so much, though. Cousins posted four double-digit performances in spot duty last year, sure, but he also threw 10 touchdowns to nine interceptions.

The scheme and supporting cast hasn't changed, either, with DeSean Jackson and Pierre Garcon as the big-ticket items. The opponent is the Miami Dolphins, a team that ranked among the top 10 against quarterbacks last year and added Ndamukong Suh this offseason.

Until he can prove otherwise, Cousins is a no-fly zone.

Projected Week 1 stats: 17-of-30, 180 passing yards, 1 touchdown, 2 interceptions. 

START Mark Ingram at Arizona Cardinals

Brynn Anderson/Associated Press

Upside, upside and upside.

Saints back Mark Ingram sneaked up on owners last year and posted nine games in double digits on a pass-first offense, all while missing three games.

Owners would be wise to not make the same mistake again.

Ingram led the league in rushes inside the five-yard line last season and all offseason he's been working on his skills as a pass-catcher to better fit as an every-down back.

Not that Ingram was bad last year, as Matt Dulcan of XN Sports pointed out: "Mark Ingram had a league best catch rate last yr at 96.7% although on only 30 tgts. If Spiller is injured often, per usual, insane upside."

Then there's this—Ingram's spell, C.J. Spiller, will miss the game against the Cardinals.

Now, Arizona did rank as the fourth-best team against backs last year, but given the scenarios around Ingram and his continued growth as a player, he's a RB1 option owners can't afford to sit on the pine.

Projected Week 1 stats: 18 carries, 60 yards, 1 touchdown, 5 catches, 55 yards.

SIT LeSean McCoy vs. Indianapolis Colts

Bill Wippert/Associated Press

Say hello to fantasy football's biggest question mark. 

LeSean McCoy is perplexing, both because of his new scenery with the Buffalo Bills and the franchise's new coach, Rex Ryan.

Everyone knows what McCoy is capable of, as noted by his more than 1,300 rushing yards in each of the last two seasons alone. But owners have never seen him outside of Philadelphia, and now he will run behind a line that only produced 1,482 total rushing yards last year with just seven scores on a 3.7 per-carry average.

It's a scary situation, no doubt. Then there's McCoy himself, who just admitted he's hobbled, per ESPN's Josina Anderson: "LeSean McCoy after prax Wed: 'I’m not sure if I’ll b exactly 100 percent, but I feel good enough to go out there & compete.'"

The opponent, the Indianapolis Colts, weren't incredible against backs last year. Fine, but Andrew Luck might be able to put the Colts ahead early and force an iffy quarterback situation to throw more often than run.

Sprinkle in the injury and Week 1 looks like a disaster scenario for Shady owners.

Projected Week 1 stats: 17 attempts, 50 yards. 

START Doug Martin vs. Tennessee Titans

Phelan M. Ebenhack/Associated Press

Doug Martin has appeared in just 17 games over the course of his last two seasons after exploding as a rookie for 1,454 yards and 11 scores.

It's understandable owners may want to shy away from the Tampa Bay Buccaneers star, but if health is the biggest issue, it's a non-factor right now.

Martin has looked great all preseason, going for 59 yards on six carries on Monday Night Football, then turning around and going for 40 yards and a score on nine totes. The form is enough to make others on the roster—Charles Sims, Bobby Rainey and Mike James—bench players at best.

It looks like Martin is back to workhorse form, which assures production. Even better, he's moving on fresh, healthy legs into a showdown with the Tennessee Titans, owners of the second-worst defense against backs last year on average.

While this contest gets pegged as the epic rookie quarterback showdown, lurking within is a guy who could score better than any other at his position.

Projected Week 1 stats: 30 carries, 155 yards, 1 touchdown 

SIT Joseph Randle vs. New York Giants

Brandon Wade/Associated Press

When there is so much unknown surrounding a potential running back committee, it's best if owners ignore the situation outright.

Such is the scenario in Dallas, where Joseph Randle looks like a lead back, but nobody really seems sure.

With DeMarco Murray out of the picture, owners have pegged Randle as a potential breakout star. The thing is, he's never proven to be a workhorse and the team has Darren McFadden and Lance Dunbar on the roster, not to mention it just went out and added Christine Michael.

If the personnel moves don't speak volumes, ponder this quote from coach Jason Garrett, per Clarence Hill of the Star-Telegram:

"

Sometimes you have one guy who’s a feature back and sometimes you have more than one guy doing it. When you have a couple or three different guys involved running the football over the course of a game, I think the benefits are many. There’s a freshness that each of those guys has. Maybe they have different styles, they can attack defenses different ways. And maybe over the course of three of them you’re just more versatile than one guy might be. They have a lot of different strengths you can tap into over the course of the game. I think freshness and versatility are probably the biggest things.

"

In other words, it sounds like the Cowboys are headed right for a committee approach. 

It's unfortunate, too, because they are also on the way to a showdown with the New York Giants, also one of the 10 worst teams against backs last year.

For now, owners will want to fall back and see how the backfield unfolds before bringing one of the names off the bench.

Projected Week 1 stats: 13 attempts, 66 yards. 

START Davante Adams at Chicago Bears

Mike Roemer/Associated Press

The Green Bay Packers are a machine operated by Aaron Rodgers, meaning so long as the rapport is there, skill positions should produce in droves. 

Droves might be the best word for Davante Adams—the jury's still out—but he needs to be in lineups this weekend. 

With Jordy Nelson out of the way, there are 151 targets from last year that have to go somewhere. They might not go to Randall Cobb, either, who looks like he will play Sunday despite not being 100 percent while his "range of motion remains limited as his shoulder heals," per Michael Cohen of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel.

Healthy or not, Cobb figures to see most of the attention the Bears can throw his way. Even if he doesn't, Adams really shouldn't have any problems maneuvering around the defense that allowed the ninth-most points to wideouts on average and starts journeyman corners Alan Ball and Tracy Porter.

If there's a breakout wideout to start in Week 1, it's Adams. The opportunities against a poor defense means owners shouldn't hesitate.

Projected Week 1 stats: 8 receptions, 112 yards, 1 touchdown. 

SIT Torrey Smith vs. Minnesota Vikings

Ben Margot/Associated Press

A wideout in a new locale always deserves a look, but things just don't seem great for San Francisco 49ers new addition Torrey Smith. 

Smith posted eight double-digit performances last year with an impressive 11 touchdowns, but to be quite straightforward, it looks like he now sets up shop in a fantasy wasteland.

Colin Kaepernick struggled all preseason to get anything going behind a patchwork offensive line. At best, Smith figures to act as the vertical presence who will stretch defenses to open things up for Anquan Boldin and Vernon Davis, quick-hitting plays to compensate for a porous line as opposed to long-developing plays to hit Smith in stride.

Besides, Smith ranked second to last a year ago in catchable drops at Pro Football Focus, posting a whopping 18.33 percentage.

Don't forget the opponent. The Minnesota Vikings ranked 11th against wideouts last year on average and only figure to improve in head coach Mike Zimmer's second season.

Smith might make a splash play here and there, but this is a run-first offense and a run-first contest.

Projected Week 1 stats: 3 receptions, 57 yards. 

START Delanie Walker vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Weston Kenney/Associated Press

Delanie Walker of the Titans remains one of the most underrated players in the league at his position.

Last year, Walker wound up ninth in scoring among tight ends despite a miserable quarterback situation, posting three double-digit efforts in the process and looking rather consistent at an unreliable position. 

Things look on the upswing, though, with rookie quarterback Marcus Mariota under center. The former Oregon star will want to get the ball out early and often and few better ways to do so exist than with Walker.

The opponent helps here too considering the Buccaneers allowed the seventh-most yards and second-most catches to tight ends a year ago. Walker should have a productive day and his leading the team in targets looks like one of the most obvious things to come from Week 1.

Projected Week 1 stats: 5 receptions, 89 yards, 1 touchdown. 

SIT Jordan Cameron at Washington

Chuck Burton/Associated Press

The Dolphins also made several big splashes on the offensive side of things, which is both a good and bad thing for tight end Jordan Cameron.

Cameron was one of the big additions and it was a move sure to excite fantasy owners. Here is a guy at 6'5" and 250 pounds who caught seven touchdowns in a single season but spent most of his four years lost in the fantasy wasteland known as Cleveland.

Now he gets to play with Ryan Tannehill and others, the "others" being the problem. The laundry list of weapons for Tannehill to hit on every down is deep, including Jarvis Landry, Kenny Stills, Greg Jennings and DeVante Parker, not to mention running back Lamar Miller, who just came off a breakout season.

Washington struggled in a big way against tight ends last year, ranking among the five worst teams against the position. It sounds great, but so many weapons in a spread-it-around attack dilute his chances. Look at it this way—Cameron caught two passes the entire preseason and Parker wasn't even on the field.

Projected Week 1 stats: 3 receptions, 22 receiving yards

All scoring info courtesy of ESPN standard leagues, as is points-against info and ownership stats as of September 10. Statistics courtesy of ESPN.com. All ADP info courtesy of Fantasy Football Calculator.